Global Water Crisis Looms Larger

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http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn9801-global-water-crisis-looms-larger.html

 

8/21/06

 

One-third of the world’s population is short of water

– a situation we were not predicted to arrive at until

2025 – according to a disturbing new report on the

state of the world’s water supplies.

 

Squeezing more out of every raindrop that falls on

poverty-stricken regions of Africa and Asia is key to

the survival of the world’s poorest and most

malnourished people, researchers say.

 

The report by the International Water Management

Institute in Colombo, Sri Lanka, was released on

Monday in Stockholm at the start of World Water Week.

It paints a bleak picture of global access to fresh

water and warns that the world cannot carry on

complacently using water as if it will never run out.

 

“Business as usual is not an option,” says David

Molden of the institute, and coordinator of the

report, called Insights from the Comprehensive

Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture.

 

It concludes that one-third of the world’s population

now suffers water scarcity, a situation that has

materialised 20 years sooner than predicted by an

assessment five years ago.

 

Breaking point

The reason for the discrepancy is that earlier

predictions were based on a country-by-country

analysis. The latest figures stem from a more detailed

analysis of natural water basins.

 

Several, such as the Yellow River basin in north-east

China, which is effectively the country’s “bread

basket”, are exhausted to the point where they cannot

support any more people or activity.

 

Although some water sources feeding big cities and

industrialised economies can barely meet demand, the

researchers point out that cheapest and most efficient

gains in water efficiency are ones which benefit the

poor most, through increasing storage and utilisation

of rainfall, which at present goes to waste.

 

The report says highlights the benefits of increasing

the efficiency of rain-watered agriculture, rather

than irrigation. It is the fastest, cheapest way to

end malnutrition, raise poor farmers out of poverty,

stop invasion of natural habitats and halt spiralling

depletion of the world’s fresh water, the report says.

 

 

Whereas expansion of irrigation to feed agriculture

often requires large capital investment and building

work which takes years, many of the steps to improve

rain-fed agriculture can be taken now, and are very

cheap, the researchers explain.

 

" Bang for your buck "

Compiled over five years with input from about 700

experts, the report says that such steps could double

or even triple food production in sub-Saharan Africa

and southeast Asia, where 800 million people are

classed as malnourished. It would increase

productivity from each raindrop by the same amount.

“That’s the best bang for your buck in terms of

poverty reduction and productivity gains from water,”

says Molden.

 

The environment would be the other major winner from

making rain-fed agriculture more productive, since it

would slow the invasion of natural habitats by farmers

whose land has become barren.

 

If the proposed plans are implemented and they work,

rain-fed agriculture would only need to expand by 10%

into natural habitats by 2050, the report concludes.

 

No plough

The practical steps needed to increase efficiency of

rain-fed agriculture are remarkably simple, and

essentially mean storing more water when it rains

instead of letting it escape. They include catching

water in plastic tubular bags that resemble

swimming-pool-sized water beds, and piping roof water

from gutters into storage receptacles.

 

Other steps include building small hollows and

embankments alongside drainage channels to capture and

store water, and building ditches to capture rainwater

that spills off roads.

 

And by planting seeds without ploughing, soil is

better able to hold on to moisture. Molden says that

such techniques developed in the semi-arid Brazilian

region of Cerredos won this year's World Food Prize

and could easily be adapted for use by farmers in

Africa’s Savannahs.

 

Drought insurance

Crucially, these relatively simple measures could

allow farmers to survive short periods of drought

which at present destroy their harvests, reducing

their risks of failure. “If you don‘t have water in

two weeks in the Sahel region of Africa, you’ll have

crop failure, and at present that happens every four

or five years so people don’t risk rain-fed methods,”

says Molden. “Our idea is to have water set aside for

an ‘unrainy’ day as your insurance against drought,”

he says.

 

Couple that with development of better-yielding,

hardier crops and the route out of poverty could

accelerate still faster. Results presented a month ago

in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, at the Africa Rice

Congress showed that farmers planting a

higher-yielding rice in Benin earned enough extra

money to send their children to school and to pay for

medical treatment when they became ill. “We’re saying

that water investment is that first step that will

lift people out of poverty,” says Molden, especially

if coupled with increased use of fertiliser.

 

As to how it should happen, Molden says that

pan-African bodies such as the New Partnership for

Africa’s Development (NEPAD) established five years

ago to develop a technological “Marshall plan” to

modernise Africa, could get things moving at continent

level by prioritising resources for rain-fed farms,

especially as NEPAD is supported by the African Union

representing Africa’s heads of state. Then, the

projects could be followed through regionally and

locally.

 

But action has to begin now. If nothing changes, twice

as much water will be needed to feed everyone by 2050.

But if the appropriate steps are taken now, global

growth in water use could actually slow by 50%, the

report finds.