Earth Policy News - Learning From China

[Guest guest]

FYI--here is an excerpt from " Earth Policy News " regarding projected

global resource use. Please note the paragraphs that pertain to meat

consumption. I have posted this item as a " food for thought " item--

particularly for those individuals who are interested in the

environmental implications of meat consumption--and not for starting

a dialogue on this listserve. (Individuals who are interested in

this matter are encouraged to continue the discussion off-list and

to contact Earth Policy News for further information on this issue.)

 

Phil Becker, SBVS Co-Founder

 

---

 

Eco-Economy Update 2005-2

For Immediate Release

March 9, 2005

 

LEARNING FROM CHINA

Why the Western Economic Model Will not Work for the World

www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update46.htm

 

Lester R. Brown

 

Could the American dream in China become a nightmare for the world?

For China's 1.3 billion people, the American dream is fast becoming

the Chinese dream. Already millions of Chinese are living like

Americans--eating more meat, driving cars, traveling abroad, and

otherwise spending their fast-rising incomes much as Americans do.

Although these U.S.-style consumers are only a small fraction of the

population, China's claims on the earth's resources are already

becoming highly visible.

 

In an Eco-Economy Update released in February, we pointed out that

China has replaced the United States as the world's leading consumer

of most basic commodities, like grain, coal, and steel. Now the

question is, What if consumption per person of these resources in

China one day reaches the current U.S. level?

 

For this exercise we will assume an 8 percent annual economic growth

rate. If the Chinese consume resources in 2031 as voraciously as

Americans do now, grain consumption per person there would climb

from 291 kilograms today to the 935 kilograms needed to sustain a

U.S.-style diet rich in meat, milk, and eggs. In 2031 China would

consume 1,352 million tons of grain, far above the 382 million tons

used in 2004. This is equal to two thirds of the entire 2004 world

grain harvest of just over 2 billion tons.

( See data at www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update46_data.htm

 

Given the limited potential for further raising the productivity of

the world's existing cropland, producing an additional 1 billion

tons of grain for consumption in China would require converting a

large part of Brazil's remaining rainforests to grain production.

This assumes, of course, that once they are cleared these soils

could sustain crop production.

 

To reach the U.S. 2004 meat intake of 125 kilograms per person,

China's meat consumption would rise from the current 64 million tons

to 181 million tons in 2031, or roughly four fifths of current world

meat production of 239 million tons.

 

With energy, the numbers are even more startling. If the Chinese use

oil at the same rate as Americans now do, by 2031 China would need

99 million barrels of oil a day. The world currently produces 79

million barrels per day and may never produce much more than that.

 

Similarly with coal. If China's coal burning were to reach the

current U.S. level of nearly 2 tons per person, the country would

use 2.8 billion tons annually--more than the current world

production of 2.5 billion tons.

 

Apart from the unbreathable air that such coal burning would create,

carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning in China alone would rival

those of the entire world today. Climate change could spiral out of

control, undermining food security and inundating coastal cities.

 

The point of this exercise of projections is not to blame China for

consuming so much, but rather to learn what happens when a large

segment of humanity moves quickly up the global economic ladder.

What we learn is that the economic model that evolved in the West--

the fossil-fuel-based, auto-centered, throwaway economy--will not

work for China simply because there are not enough resources.

 

If it does not work for China, it will not work for India, which has

an economy growing at 7 percent per year and a population projected

to surpass China's in 2030. Nor will it work for the other 3 billion

people in the developing world who also want to consume like

Americans. Perhaps most important, in an increasingly integrated

global economy where all countries are competing for the same

dwindling resources it will not continue to work for the 1.2 billion

who currently live in the affluent industrial societies either.

 

The sooner we recognize that our existing economic model cannot

sustain economic progress, the better it will be for the entire

world. The claims on the earth by the existing model at current

consumption levels are such that we are fast depleting the energy

and mineral resources on which our modern industrial economy

depends. We are also consuming beyond the sustainable yield of the

earth's natural systems. As we overcut, overplow, overpump,

overgraze, and overfish, we are consuming not only the interest

from our natural endowment, we are devouring the endowment itself.

In ecology, as in economics, this leads to bankruptcy.

 

China is teaching us that we need a new economic model, one that is

based not on fossil fuels but that instead harnesses renewable

sources of energy, including wind power, hydropower, geothermal

energy, solar cells, solar thermal power plants, and biofuels. In

the search for new energy, wind meteorologists will replace

petroleum geologists. Energy architects will be centrally involved

in the design of buildings.

 

In the new economy, the transport system will be designed to maximize

mobility rather than automobile use. This new economy comprehensively

reuses and recycles materials of all kinds. The goal in designing

industrial processes and products is zero emissions and zero waste.

 

Plan A, business as usual, is no longer a viable option. We need to

turn quickly to Plan B before the geopolitics of oil, grain, and raw

material scarcity lead to political conflict and disruption of the

social order on which economic progress depends.

 

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contact vjimenez