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Climate change: scientists warn it may be too late to save the ice

caps

 

 

David Adam, environment correspondent

Monday February 19, 2007

The Guardian

 

 

A critical meltdown of ice sheets and severe sea level rise could be

inevitable because of global warming, the world's scientists are

preparing to warn their governments. New studies of Greenland and

Antarctica have forced a UN expert panel to conclude there is a 50%

chance that widespread ice sheet loss " may no longer be avoided "

because of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Such melting would raise sea levels by four to six metres, the

scientists say. It would cause " major changes in coastline and

inundation of low-lying areas " and require " costly and challenging "

efforts to move millions of people and infrastructure from vulnerable

areas. The previous official line, issued in 2001, was that the chance

of such an event was " not well known, but probably very low " .

 

 

 

The melting process could take centuries, but increased warming caused

by a failure to cut emissions would accelerate the ice sheets' demise,

and give nations less time to adapt to the consequences. Areas such as

the Maldives would be swamped and low-lying countries such as the

Netherlands and Bangladesh, as well as coastal cities including

London, New York and Tokyo, would face critical flooding.

The warning appears in a report from the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change, which assesses the likely impacts of global warming

and will be published in April. A final draft of the report's summary-

for-policymakers chapter, obtained by the Guardian, says: " Very large

sea level rises that would result from widespread deglaciation of

Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets imply major changes in

coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas, with greatest effects in

river deltas.

 

" Relocating populations, economic activity and infrastructure would be

costly and challenging. There is medium confidence that both ice

sheets would be committed to partial deglaciation for a global average

temperature increase greater than 1-2C, causing sea level rise of 4-6m

over centuries to millennia. " Medium confidence means about a five in

10 chance.

 

The revelation comes as a new report points out that greenhouse gas

emissions running into hundreds of millions of tonnes have not been

disclosed by Britain's biggest businesses, masking the full extent of

the UK's contribution to global warming. According to a report by

Christian Aid, only 16 of Britain's top 100 listed companies are

meeting the government's most elementary reporting guidelines on

greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, almost 200m tonnes of damaging

CO2 is estimated to be missing from the annual reports of FTSE 100

companies. The figure is more than the annual reported emissions of

Pakistan and Greece combined.

 

This month the IPCC published a separate study on the science of

climate change, which concluded that humans are " very likely " to be

responsible for most of the recent warming, and that average

temperatures would probably increase by 4C this century if emissions

continue to rise. Even under its most optimistic scenario, based on a

declining world population and a rapid switch to clean technology,

temperatures are still likely to rise by 1.8C.

 

The new report is expected to say this means there is " a significant

probability that some large-scale events (eg deglaciation of major ice

sheets) may no longer be avoided due to historical greenhouse gas

emissions and the inertia of the climate system " . Scientists involved

with the IPCC process cannot talk publicly about its contents before

publication. But a senior author on the report said: " It's not rocket

science to realise that with the numbers coming out from the IPCC

[science report], the warming by the end of the century is enough to

do that. " The report's conclusion poses a conundrum for governments of

how to address a problem that is inevitable but may not occur for

hundreds or thousands of years. " That's for the policy makers to

decide but it really is a very difficult question, " the source said.

" Those are moral questions and the answer you give will depend very

much on which part of the world you live in. "

 

Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona,

said the key question was not whether the ice sheets would break up,

but how quickly. Some models suggest rapid melting that would bring

sea level rises of more than a metre per century. " That would be much

harder for us to cope with, " he says.

 

The IPCC science report predicted sea level rises of up to 0.59m by

the end of the century. But that does not include the possible

contribution from ice sheets, because the experts judged it too

unpredictable to forecast over short timescales.

 

 

I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to

tremble for the safety of my country. As a result of war, corporations have been

enthroned, and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money

power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the

prejudices of the people until all the wealth is aggregated in a few hands and

the republic is destroyed. I feel, at this moment, more anxiety for the safety

of my country than ever before, even in the midst of war. God grant that my

suspicions may prove groundless. " Lincoln in a letter to Col. William F. Elkins

on November 21, 1864