no, really? there's a forest fire climbin the hill, burning wealthy california homes, better run run run run from the fire

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Climate change may be fuelling rise in forest fires: study

Last Updated Thu, 06 Jul 2006 17:40:20 EDT

CBC News

Climate change may be responsible for increasing the number of forest

fires in the western United States, a new study shows.

 

Researchers analyzed data on 1,166 forest fires on federal land since

1970 and compared it to climate data such as snowmelt measurements.

 

" We show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and

dramatically in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency,

longer wildfire durations and longer wildfire seasons, " the team wrote

in Thursday's online issue of Science Express.

 

The fire season is now 64 per cent longer than it was 30 years ago,

with the mid-elevation Northern Rockies showing the greatest increase

in wildfires, the researchers found.

 

Land-use changes in the 19th and 20th centuries were traditionally the

focus of discussions on forest fire increases, but had relatively

little effect in the region, the team concluded.

 

The findings add to the debate about whether the warmer conditions are

a sign of climate change or a 20-year heat wave.

 

" They have really demonstrated this link between fire activity and

climate, " said John Clague, who holds a Canada Research Chair in

natural hazards research at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, B.C.

" Now you get a little more on thin ice [on] what is the driver for

that? "

 

Initially, study author Thomas Swetnam, director of the Laboratory of

Tree-Ring Research at the University of Arizona in Tucson, considered

fuel such as dried timber to be the primary driver. But the findings

convinced him that climate change from human sources and natural

fluctuations is the main contributor to the increase in forest fires.

 

" I see this as one of the first big indicators of climate change

impacts in the continental United States, " said Swetnam. " Lots of

people think climate change and the ecological responses are 50 to 100

years away, " he added in a statement. " But it's not 50 to 100 years

away - it's happening now in forest ecosystems through fire. "

 

Forest fires burned communities in the U.S. last year and have forced

the evacuation of hundreds in Western Canada this week.

 

Effect of longer dry season

 

Since 1987, the pattern changed from infrequent fires burning for about

one week on average to more frequent fires blazing for five weeks or

more, the team reported. Scientists found a similar increase in forest

fire activity in Canada from 1920 to 1999.

 

There was a strong link between early arrival of spring snowmelt in

mountainous regions and incidence of large forest forests.

 

An earlier snowmelt at higher elevations can lead to an earlier and

longer dry season that creates more opportunities for large fires, said

study author Anthony Westerling of the Scripps Institution of

Oceanography in San Diego, Calif.

 

The increasing frequency of large, devastating wildfires may

significantly change the makeup of forests. That could change the role

of forests from storing atmospheric carbon dioxide to a source of the

gas, exacerbating the fire problem.

 

 

 

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