Peak Oil Discomforts

[Guest guest]

Peak Oil Discomforts

Losing Hot Water, Computer, Car, Electricity . . .

by Shepherd Bliss

www.dissidentvoice.org

May 8, 2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

My hot water heater recently sprang a leak. So I dumped it.

Inconvenient, but not a big deal -- quickly replaceable, at least these

days. But the incident did stimulate me to reflect on temporary,

annoying, but currently fixable discomforts. But what will happen when

breakdowns are not so temporary or so quickly or inexpensively

repairable or replaceable? What will happen when the impacts of

declining petroleum supplies grow numerous and persistent?

 

My computer sometimes crashes. What a drag. I've become dependent

upon that vulnerable machine. After a few hours or days without that

apparently crucial industrial tool I begin to go crazy. Typewriters now

seem so ancient, time consuming, and inadequate. " You've Got

Mail " can be addictive. I enjoy the hot baths, relaxation, clean

feeling, and hydrotherapy that water heaters provide. But live

computers have become even more essential to me and my lifestyle than

the daily baths that I learned to love so much from my former mate, who

is Japanese.

 

I recall times when my car would not start. How frustrating. I wonder

if the car sought revenge for the many nasty things I've said over

the years about automobiles -- while continuing to use them. Luckily,

nearby friends got me to repair shops in their still-running cars for a

new battery, other parts, or a relatively quick fix. But what if the

parts or people to repair my car were not there, busy for weeks, or so

expensive that I could not afford them?

 

Some good friends recently moved from their well-wired house closer to

the place where they are building their home in the forest in

Hawai'i. They temporarily had no phone. So I could not easily reach

them; I had to drive, bike, or walk four miles further up the volcano

under which we live. Our friendship was disrupted, though we will

recover. It is hard to imagine being without a phone, even for a day.

Think about it.

 

Incidentally, we had another tsunami warning as I write this, after an

eight point something earthquake on the Pacific island of Tonga. We

live on an edge here in Hawai'i (the most isolated occupied island

chain in the world) that provides a sometimes wild and primitive

context that may become more familiar to people living on continents,

as the continued and growing burning of fossil fuels worsens our

climate globally. Peak Oil impacts are likely to hit Hawai'i earlier

and stronger than the continent.

 

Storms, hurricanes, and tornadoes have shut down electricity in

California, Hawai'i, the Northeast and the Midwest, where I have

lived for most of my over 60 years. After a few hours or days the

electricity has always returned, with its multiple gifts and

conveniences. But what if it did not come back for weeks, months,

years, or ever?

 

How long can you go without -- fill in the blank? Ever have a

refrigerator go out? How long would your food supply last? Do you still

have an old ice box around? Could you even get ice to put into it?

 

Multiple disruptions will occur more frequently with the gradual

unfolding of Peak Oil -- the mid-point of our decreasing petroleum

supply, as the world-wide demand climbs, especially in industrializing

countries like China and India. Fixes will become increasingly more

expensive and trusted fix-it skills or people even more valuable.

 

What will happen when there is no quick fix for a broken-down water

heater, computer, car, or whatever? Perhaps the fix-it guy is busy

fixing someone else's whatever. Or there is no available

replacement, or you could not afford it. What to expect? And how to

prepare?

 

Much of Peak Oil writing has been theoretical -- by geologists,

scientists and other oil analysts who have helped us understand the

deeper problem. They make dire predictions with heavy words, such as

" disaster, " " catastrophe, " and " collapse. " This essay

does

not use such words, but seeks to describe potential disruptions,

nuisances, and irritants. The increase of such discomforts will be yet

another sign that we are on the down side of the Peak Oil slope. Those

of us who are convinced of the validity of the Peak Oil theory now need

to move more into considering some possible nitty-gritty problems and

potential practical solutions.

 

What I seek to do in this article is provide some perspective from my

island-dwelling and plant seeds regarding potential problems. Perhaps

readers may want to consider their own circumstances. As Ken Higgins of

Sebastopol, a small town in Sonoma County, Northern California,

recently wrote in an email, " While driving around the county or

walking downtown I constantly have visions of 'what will change when

energy is sporadic and expensive.' It's rather sobering. "

 

Speaking of emails, an e-mail addict friend recently joined E-mails

Anonymous. He realized that he had lost control of this habit, which

was dominating him as if it were alcohol; many others are controlled by

e-mail. Unable to give up his addiction permanently, my friend

committed himself to not using email for a year. But he did not join

Internet Anonymous, so he still surfs the web. Can you imagine life

without the web or e-mail?

 

When it takes letters a week to get from the continent to reach me

Hawai'i, I get worried. There is no home delivery to my place or to

much of the rural parts of the Big Island. The road where I live is

unpaved and there is no number on my house, which is OK. Slower mail

service is a likely consequence of Peak Oil. As gasoline prices soon

rise to $4, $5 and more a gallon, stamp prices will rise and delivery

will take longer -- weeks, maybe even months to some remote places.

 

21st Century American society relies on complex, interlocking

mechanical and electronic systems. This includes transportation that

gets food and other essentials and non-essentials from one place to

other places hundreds or even thousands of miles away.

 

These complex industrial systems often clash with natural systems that

pre-date them, and hopefully will outlast them. Greenhouse gases

already cause climate changes that damage the Earth. If we continue our

extensive burning of fossil fuels, we will create even worse threats to

industrial societies and the planet itself. Peak Oil directly impacts

complex human-made systems; it will slow things down and eventually

stop some of them. Though uncomfortable for many people, this process

may not be all bad for the Earth itself. Having less oil to burn may in

fact improve the Earth's climate, unless it is replaced with more

polluting fuels, such as coal.

 

Americans already complain, big time, about what they experience as

high gasoline prices. Compared to what gas costs elsewhere and will

soon cost here, those prices are not actually so high. Europe's gas

prices have been double ours for years. People manage there. But then,

they are not as dependent upon cars and do not live in suburbs as much

as we do. Many nations are also more used to disasters and wars, often

supported by or even caused by America to insure its continued

domination of natural resources, including petroleum.

 

America's response to Sept. 11, for example, was not as flexible or

effective as the responses by people in Bali and elsewhere to similar

such crises. Americans feel that we are entitled to Cheap Oil and its

multiple " benefits " -- fast industrial agriculture, immediate

electricity, the freedom of single occupant vehicles, petroleum-based

medicines, clothes, etc.

 

When Americans turn on the faucet, they expect water to flow, often not

even knowing where it comes from. My home in Hawai'i is on

catchments, so my water comes directly from the sky to my roof to my

water tank and then into the house. When my water heater went out, my

hot water supply failed for a while. When I went to wash my face in

soothing warm water, all I got was that terrible sucking sound.

 

On the other hand, there were unintended positive consequences to my

water heater loss. I had to take baths elsewhere, ask for help, share

resources, which built community -- all valuable post-carbon skills. I

eventually hired a knowledgeable friend to fix the problem. We even had

fun going to the dump, hanging out, and just being together getting

business done. Loss is not without merit; it can create and enhance

friendships.

 

With a flick of a switch, Americans expect the darkness to suddenly

give way to the miracle of immediate light, even at night. Candle

making is likely to once again become lucrative work. Fire making may

return as a necessary domestic art to master.

 

What will happen when a large American city of many millions of people

gets thrown outside its comfort zones? In an e-mail to Puna Beyond

Petro, Stephanie Bath of Hawaiian Acres, wrote, " Some folks just

don't want to shift out of their comfort zones. They want instant

solutions provided for them. "

 

Some people will pull together to help each other, especially in

smaller cities and in neighborhoods where people know and care for each

other. This will reveal our better selves. That is what I remember

from blizzards in the Northeast. They can even be fun, a needed

disruption in daily routines, which can help build community. But what

happens when there is competition for limited food and other essential

resources, like toilet paper or chocolate?

 

Things can get ugly, especially when the market shelves lack food. The

shelves are already sometimes sparse in Hawai'i. 90% of our food

arrives by ships from over 2500 miles away. Shortages are already

fairly common. People regularly stock up on essentials. But such

shortages have always been short-lived. If the ships don't arrive for

a week, we will be out of imported food.

 

James Howard Kunstler describes our historical moment in his helpful

book The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the

21st Century. Lets step back into the previous century. I was born

before the middle of the 20th century. Our family farm in Iowa was on a

unpaved road (still unpaved) that didn't have a name; our house did

not have a number; and our mail delivery was on Rural Route 2. Even

the highways did not have speed limits, so my Uncle Dale used to drive

us over 100 miles an hour in his '62 Chevy. Great fun for a teenager.

Yeah!

 

Most readers probably were not born before electricity reached their

homes. We did not have electricity on our family farm during the early

years of my life. Rural electrification finally arrived. We didn't

have television until I was a teenager. Life without TV really

wasn't so bad. For entertainment we watched barnyard animals during

the days; I especially enjoyed the playful piglets and chickens, who

provided eggs for our rotten egg fights. At night we had gaslights and

Uncle Dale told stories that incubated our dreams with animals, plants,

and fantasy. " Once upon a time, a long, long time ago... " are words

that still trigger relaxation and comfort for me.

 

Some places in the world still lack electricity, phones and computers.

But they have their oral traditions and stories. Modern conveniences

can make our lives appear easier, but they also create vulnerabilities

that are not yet so evident to most people. We are now experiencing

some of the downsides of the over-use of fossil fuels and the climate

change consequences. We may soon be forced to give up some of our

planet-damaging luxuries.

 

But now I have come to expect the comforts of electricity --

refrigerators rather than ice boxes, computers and phone machines for

communication rather than party-line telephones, etc. It's the loss

that would be hard. I will miss the many modern conveniences and the

ease at getting most of them repaired. But having already lived

without electricity for years, it may not be as hard for me as some

post-digital people.

 

" How we are accustomed to our comforts! " noted Ann Weller of

Willits Economic Relocalization (WELL) in Northern California. " I

returned recently from India, where the cold water bucket and small

dipper method is used to bathe. It is simple, invigorating, and can be

done outside even. But I find I am not doing it here -- since I have a

shower! "

 

I am preparing myself for experiencing losses, partly by appreciating

all the wonderful things that Cheap Energy has brought us. I also work

to do what Richard Heinberg describes in his book Powerdown: Options

and Actions for a Post-Carbon World. We can do things to mitigate

pending problems.

 

As an apparently Arab quotation goes, indicating an awareness of oil's

finite supply and imminent shortages: " My grandfather rode a camel. I

drive a car. My son travels in jet airplanes. His son will ride a

camel. "

 

Nothing lasts forever. Everything that lives eventually dies. Even

inanimate objects and inorganic matter can finally dissolve or evolve

into something else. The lava stones on which my house in Hawai'i is

built will eventually become soil. We need long-term views to help

understand what is happening here at the beginning of the 21st century.

But we may not have much time. We need to inform people about what may

happen, how to prepare and adapt, and work for social change.

 

Dr. Shepherd Bliss has been a college teacher and journalist in

Hawai'i for the last three years. He is currently moving back to his

farm in Northern California, mainly to prepare for Peak Oil among his

long-time friends. He can be reached at: sb3.

 

 

 

What's gonna happen when the buses don't run

and what's gonna happen when the, winter comes

what are you gonna do,

what are you gonna do

when the oil runs out?