just imagine the heating bill for warmin an entire planet

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Global Warming Unstoppable, but Still Chance to Stop Major Disasters, Scientists

Say

 

April 03, 2006 — By Seth Borenstein, Associated Press

WASHINGTON — A man stands on a railroad track as a train rumbles closer.

 

" Global warming? " he says. " Some say irreversible consequences are 30 years

away. Thirty years. That won't affect me. "

 

He steps off the tracks -- just in time. But behind him is a little

blonde-haired girl left in front of the roaring train.

 

The screen goes black. A message appears: " There's still time. "

 

It's just an ad, part of a campaign from the advocacy group Environmental

Defense, which hopes to convince Americans they can do something about global

warming, that there's still time.

 

But many scientists are not so sure that the oncoming train of global warming

can be avoided. Temperatures are going to rise for decades to come because the

chief gas that causes global warming lingers in the atmosphere for about a

century.

 

" We certainly aren't going to stop that 18-wheeler that's rolling down the hill.

In the short-term, I'm not sure that anyone can stop it, " said John Walsh,

director of the Center for Global Change and Arctic System Research at the

University of Alaska in Fairbanks.

 

There are limits, experts say, to how much individuals can do. The best we can

hope for is to prevent the worst -- world-altering disasters like catastrophic

climate change and a drastic rise in sea levels, say 10 leading climate

scientists interviewed by The Associated Press. They pull out ominous phrases

like " point of no return. "

 

The big disasters are believed to be just decades away. Stopping or delaying

them would require bold changes by both individuals and government.

 

" The big payoff is going to be for our children, " said Tim Barnett, a senior

scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California. " Together,

if we take a concentrated action as a people, we might be able to slow it down

enough to avoid these surprises. "

 

But he and other scientists say it's too late to stop people from feeling the

heat. Nearly two dozen computer models now agree that by 2100, the average

yearly global temperature will be 3 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit higher than now,

according to Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for

Atmospheric Research.

 

Even if today the world suddenly stops producing greenhouse gases, temperatures

will rise 1 degree by 2050, according to NCAR.

 

A British conference on " avoiding dangerous climate change " last year concluded

that a rise of just 3 degrees would likely lead to some catastrophic events,

especially the melting of the Greenland's polar ice. A study in the journal

Science last month said the melting, which is happening faster than originally

thought, could trigger a 1- to 3-foot rise in global ocean levels.

 

Stephen Schneider of Stanford University put the odds of a massive Greenland

melt at 50-50.

 

But Environmental Defense chief scientist Bill Chameides is more hopeful:

" There's a certain amount of warming that's inevitable, but that doesn't mean

that we can't avoid the really dangerous things that are happening. "

 

Those dangerous things include: multi-century melts of polar ice sheets and an

accompanying major sea level rise, abrupt climate change from a dramatic slowing

of the ocean current systems, and the permanent loss of glacier-fed ancient

water supplies for China, India and parts of South America.

 

Despite what scientists say, 70 percent of Americans believe it's possible to

reduce the effects of global warming and 59 percent think their individual

actions can help, according to a poll commissioned by Environmental Defense as

part of its public service campaign.

 

Climate scientists find themselves in the delicate position of trying to balance

calculations that lead to scientific despair with an optimistic public's hope.

 

" You don't give up, " said Schneider, co-director of Stanford's Center for

Environmental Science Policy. " If you have high blood pressure, do you sit there

till you die or do you take Lasix (blood pressure medicine)? "

 

It takes decades to stabilize emissions of greenhouse gases -- which are spewed

by power plants, cars and factories -- and another half-century after that to

slow revved-up ocean warming, so " you're stuck with say 100 years of warming, "

said Barnett.

 

" I believe we are past the point of no return, " he said. " What does the point of

no return mean? To me, it means we've reached a point where we are seeing the

impacts of global warming ... The question is: How much worse is it going to

get? That is a case in which we can control our destiny -- if we act now. "

 

Both Barnett and Walsh said the question they get most from the public is: What

can I do personally about global warming? They tell people to drive less and

drive fuel-miserly cars, be more efficient about heating their homes.

 

But those efforts " are not going to change us from an irreversible course to a

reversible one, " said Walsh. " What you really want to say is: 'You can't go on

like this. We can't go on like this.' "

 

Robert Correll, a top scientist in charge of an eight-country research program

into Arctic problems caused by global warming, recognizes the contradictions,

especially since developing nations such as China, India and those in Africa

will play bigger roles in greenhouse gas pollution in the future.

 

The individual effort, Correll said, " is damn important, but you're not going to

make much difference. " That requires group or governmental action, he said.

 

Individual action, while crucial, " gets you 10, 20, 50 percent of the way, "

Schneider said.

 

Many of the scientists who have long been vocal skeptics of global warming now

acknowledge that the Earth is getting hotter and that some of it is caused by

people. Even so, this minority of scientists, such as John Christy of the

University of Alabama at Huntsville, contend that the warming is " not on this

dangerous trajectory. "

 

But Environmental Defense is spending about $1.5 million over three years on the

public service ads, including the child in front of the train, to drive home to

the public that warming is on a dangerous track and that individuals can and

should do something about it. The ads, released in late March and arranged with

the Ad Council, which produced iconic anti-littering and anti-drunk driving

campaigns, are being run for free nationwide, said Fred Krupp, Environmental

Defense's executive director.

 

" We expect at least $100 million worth of time and space over the next two

years, so it is a big deal, " Krupp said. " When we are successful in making an

issue that every American feels responsible to act on, that in itself can reduce

emissions. "

 

Krupp said scientists don't take into account the American will: " Don't

underestimate the willpower of Americans when they take on a problem. "

 

But computer model runs at the atmospheric center's Boulder, Colo., campus show

Environmental Defense's train image might be too close to the truth.

 

" It's a train that's going downhill; that is something that people don't

understand, " Meehl said. " For anything to happen, it's going to have to take the

public really being concerned about this problem. "

 

Source: Associated Press

 

Americans Willing to Fight Global Warming

 

April 03, 2006 — By Associated Press

WASHINGTON — An overwhelming majority of Americans think they can help reduce

global warming and are willing to make the sacrifices that are needed, according

to a new poll.

 

After years of controversy, now 71 percent of Americans believe global warming

is real, according to a telephone survey of 1,200 people for the advocacy group

Environmental Defense. Conducted between Feb. 27 and March 2, the poll has a

margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points and was conducted by the

firm Ayres, McHenry & Associates, which predominantly polls for Republican

candidates.

 

The results include:

 

-- 53 percent believe warming is caused more by human activity than by normal

Earth cycles.

 

-- 70 percent think the effects of global warming can be reduced.

 

-- 59 percent think their efforts as individuals can make a difference in global

warming.

 

-- At least 90 percent are willing to take the following steps to reduce

greenhouse gas emissions: recycle, turn thermostats down in the winter by 2

degrees, caulk around windows, and combine driving tips when running errands.

 

-- Between 80 to 90 percent are willing to take these energy-saving actions:

wash clothes in cold water, turn down hot water heater temperature, buy energy

efficient light bulbs, buy energy efficient appliances, and buy energy efficient

cars.

 

-- 70 percent are willing to drive less, and walk, bike, car-pool or take mass

transit.

 

Source: Associated Press

 

 

 

 

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