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Health

A Killer Virus Spreads

Robert Langreth, 01.24.05, 2:35 PM ET

 

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NEW YORK - Researchers have confirmed two cases of human-to-human

transmission of the killer bird flu virus, a stark reminder that the

world could be just a few viral mutations away from the start of the

next deadly worldwide flu pandemic.

 

The bird flu, so-called H5N1, has top epidemiologists across the

world on edge because of its potential to mutate into a new strain

that no one would be immune to and that could easily spread among

humans. Since first emerging in 1997 in Hong Kong, the bird flu has

spread across poultry flocks in nine East Asian countries. It has

killed 34 of 47 people who haven gotten it--a terrifying 72%

mortality rate.

 

Until now, the vast majority of the confirmed human cases were people

who had contact with infected animals. But in the current issue of

The New England Journal of Medicine, Thai doctors report two cases of

apparent human-to human transmission of the bird flu.

 

The cluster started with an 11-year-old girl who played and slept

near infected chickens. Early last September, she developed a high

fever and respiratory distress and was brought to the hospital.

There, the girl passed the infection to her 26-year-old mother and a

32-year-old aunt, who each spent more than 12 hours at the girl's

beside. Only the aunt survived.

 

Neither the mother nor aunt spread the disease to anyone else, an

indication that the virus still can't spread efficiently among

humans, the Thai researchers reported. And lab tests showed that the

virus that infected the family had not mutated from its avian form,

the researchers said.

 

But that may be just a matter of time. " There is so much transmission

going on between birds and humans [in Asia] that the likelihood of a

genetic reassortment that would make the virus able to be transmitted

in humans grows every day, " says University of Minnesota infectious

disease epidemiologist Michael Osterholm.

 

Whether this will happen is anybody's guess. But if it does, all 6.4

billion people on the planet would need a flu shot--many times the

current capacity of about 300 million doses annually. A special

vaccine would also have to be made, a laborious process that involves

incubating flu virus in chicken eggs. To get a jump-start on the

process, the U.S. National Institutes of Health has contracted with

Sanofi-Aventis (nyse: SNY - news - people ) and Chiron (nasdaq: CHIR -

news - people ) to produce a prototype bird flu vaccine for human

trials that are expected to begin any time now in healthy adults.

 

The U.S. flu shot supply is particularly vulnerable because Chiron

had to throw out its entire supply last fall because of factory

snafus. That left Sanofi-Aventis as the only approved flu-shot

supplier. GlaxoSmithKline (nyse: GSK - news - people ), a major

producer of flu shots aboard, hopes to enter the U.S. flu vaccine

market next fall, pending regulatory approval.

 

The biotech firm MedImmune (nasdaq: MEDI - news - people ) sells a

nasal spray flu vaccine, but it is not approved for very young kids

or the elderly. Wyeth (nyse: WYE - news - people ) exited the flu

shot business a few years ago, while Merck (nyse: MRK - news -

people ) sells other types of vaccines, but not influenza shots.

 

Past influenza pandemics have hit in 1918, 1957 and 1968. The 1918

pandemic, the worst ever, killed an estimated 50 million people. In a

commentary accompanying the New England Journal report,

epidemiologist Arnold Monto notes that the bird origins of past

pandemic viruses were discovered only after the fact. " This time, " he

says, " we have been given a warning. "

 

 

 

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http://www.forbes.com/home/sciencesandmedicine/2005/01/24/cz_rl_0124bi

rdflu.html

 

 

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