Guest guest Posted May 3, 2006 Report Share Posted May 3, 2006 > foodnews <foodnews > [Food-news] Can Organic Farming Feed Us > All? > > *www.foodnews.ca > * > > *Editor's Note: Increasingly experts are de-bunking > long-held myths that > organic agriculture cannot produce yields on par > with conventional > agriculture. Studies of organic agriculture and > modeling to predict > potential future scenarios suggest that organic > agriculture in the North > does produce on average lower yields than > conventional approaches. > However, the opposite appears to be true for the > South where cover > crops, compost, manure etc. associated with organic > agriculture improve > soil health and retain water. The result is that > yield increases are > greatest in the poorest, driest, hungriest regions > and could therefore > make a significant contribution to food security in > sub-Saharan Africa > and elsewhere.* > > *Excerpted from the May/June 2006 WORLD WATCH > magazine* > > *www.worldwatch.org* > > *Volume 19, Number 3 Vision for a Sustainable World > May/June 2006* > > Can Organic Farming Feed Us All? By Brian Halweil > > May/June 2006 > > The only people who think organic farming can feed > the world are > delusional hippies, hysterical moms, and > self-righteous organic farmers. > Right? > > Actually, no. A fair number of agribusiness > executives, agricultural and > ecological scientists, and international agriculture > experts believe > that a large-scale shift to organic farming would > not only /increase > /the world's food supply, but might be the only way > to eradicate hunger. > > This probably comes as a surprise. After all, > organic farmers scorn the > pesticides, synthetic fertilizers, and other tools > that have become > synonymous with high-yield agriculture. Instead, > organic farmers depend > on raising animals for manure, growing beans, > clover, or other > nitrogen-fixing legumes, or making compost and other > sources of > fertilizer that cannot be manufactured in a chemical > plant but are > instead grown--which consumes land, water, and other > resources. (In > contrast, producing synthetic fertilizers consumes > massive amounts of > petroleum.) Since organic farmers can't use > synthetic pesticides, one > can imagine that their fields suffer from a scourge > of crop-munching > bugs, fruitrotting blights, and plant-choking weeds. > And because organic > farmers depend on rotating crops to help control > pest problems, the same > field won't grow corn or wheat or some other staple > as often. > > As a result, the argument goes, a world dependent on > organic farming > would have to farm more land than it does > today--even if it meant less > pollution, fewer abused farm animals, and fewer > carcinogenic residues on > our vegetables. " We aren't going to feed 6 billion > people with organic > fertilizer, " said Nobel Prize-winning plant breeder > Norman Borlaug at a > 2002 conference. " If we tried to do it, we would > level most of our > forest and many of those lands would be productive > only for a short > period of time. " Cambridge chemist John Emsley put > it more bluntly: " The > greatest catastrophe that the human race could face > this century is not > global warming but a global conversion to 'organic > farming'--an > estimated 2 billion people would perish. " > > In recent years, organic farming has attracted new > scrutiny, not just > from critics who fear that a large-scale shift in > its direction would > cause billions to starve, but also from farmers and > development agencies > who actually suspect that such a shift could /better > /satisfy hungry > populations. Unfortunately, no one had ever > systematically analyzed > whether in fact a widespread shift to organic > farming would run up > against a shortage of nutrients and a lack of > yields--until recently. > > The results are striking. There are actually myriad > studies from around > the world showing that organic farms can produce > about as much, and in > some settings much more, than conventional farms. > Where there is a yield > gap, it tends to be widest in wealthy nations, where > farmers use copious > amounts of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides in a > perennial attempt > to maximize yields. It is true that farmers > converting to organic > production often encounter lower yields in the first > few years, as the > soil and surrounding biodiversity recover from years > of assault with > chemicals. And it may take several seasons for > farmers to refine the new > approach. > > But the long-standing argument that organic farming > would yield just > one-third or one-half of conventional farming was > based on biased > assumptions and lack of data. For example, the > often-cited statistic > that switching to organic farming in the United > States would only yield > one-quarter of the food currently produced there is > based on a U.S. > Department of Agriculture study showing that all the > manure in the > United States could only meet one-quarter of the > nation's fertilizer > needs--even though organic farmers depend on much > more than just manure. > > More up-to-date research refutes these arguments. > For example, a recent > study by scientists at the Research Institute for > Organic Agriculture in > Switzerland showed that organic farms were only 20 > percent less > productive than conventional plots over a 21-year > period. Looking at > more than 200 studies in North America and Europe, > Per Pinstrup Andersen > (a Cornell professor and winner of the World Food > Prize) and colleagues > recently concluded that organic yields were about 80 > percent of > conventional yields. And many studies show an even > narrower gap. > Reviewing 154 growing seasons' worth of data on > various crops grown on > rain-fed and irrigated land in the United States, > University of > California-Davis agricultural scientist Bill > Liebhardt found that > organic corn yields were 94 percent of conventional > yields, organic > wheat yields were 97 percent, and organic soybean > yields were 94 > percent. Organic tomatoes showed no yield > difference. > > More importantly, in the world's poorer nations > where most of the > world's hungry live, the yield gaps completely > disappear. University of > Essex researchers Jules Pretty and > > Rachel Hine looked at over 200 agricultural projects > in the developing > world that converted to organic and ecological > approaches, and found > that for all the projects--involving 9 million farms > on nearly 30 > million hectares--yields increased an average of 93 > percent. A > seven-year study from Maikaal District in central > India involving 1,000 > farmers cultivating 3,200 hectares found that > average yields for cotton, > wheat, chili, and soy were as much as 20 percent > higher on the organic > farms than on nearby conventionally managed ones. > Farmers and > agricultural scientists attributed the higher yields > in this dry region > to the emphasis on cover crops, compost, manure, and > other practices > that increased organic matter (which helps retain > water) in the soils. A > study from Kenya found that while organic farmers in > " high-potential > areas " (those with above average rainfall and high > soil quality) had > lower maize yields than nonorganic farmers, organic > farmers in areas > with poorer resource endowments consistently > outyielded conventional > growers. (In both regions, organic farmers had > higher net profits, > return on capital, and return on labor.) > > Contrary to critics who jibe that it's going back to > farming like our > grandfathers did or that most of Africa already > farms organically and it > can't do the job, organic farming is a sophisticated > combination of old > wisdom and modern ecological innovations that help > harness the > yield-boosting effects of nutrient cycles, > beneficial insects, and crop > synergies. It's heavily dependent on > technology--just not the technology > that comes out of a chemical plant. > > So could we make do without the chemical plants? > Inspired by a field > trip to a nearby organic farm where the farmer > reported that he raised > an amazing 27 tons of vegetables on six-tenths of a > hectare in a > relatively short growing season, a team of > scientists from the > University of Michigan tried to estimate how much > food could be raised > following a global shift to organic farming. The > team combed through the > literature for any and all studies comparing crop > yields on organic > farms with those on nonorganic farms. Based on 293 > examples, they came > up with a global dataset of yield ratios for the > world's major crops for > the developed and the developing world. As expected, > organic farming > yielded less than conventional farming in the > developed world for most > food categories, while studies from the developing > world showed organic > farming boosting yields. The team then ran two > models. The first was > conservative in the sense that it applied the yield > ratio for the > developed world to the entire planet, i.e., they > assumed that every farm > regardless of location would get only the lower > developed-country > yields. The second applied the yield ratio for the > developed world to > wealthy nations and the yield ratio for the > developing world to those > countries. > > " We were all surprised by what we found, " said > Catherine Badgley, a > Michigan paleoecologist who was one of the lead > researchers. The first > model yielded 2,641 kilocalories ( " calories " ) per > person per day, just > under the world's current production of 2,786 > calories but significantly > higher than the average caloric requirement for a > healthy person of > between 2,200 and 2,500.The second model yielded > 4,381 calories per > person per day, 75 percent greater than current > availability-- and a > quantity that could theoretically sustain a much > larger human population > than is currently supported on the world's farmland. > > The team's interest in this subject was partly > inspired by the concern > that a large scale shift to organic farming would > require clearing > additional wild areas to compensate for lower > yields--an obvious worry > for scientists like Badgley, who studies present and > past biodiversity. > The only problem with the argument, she said, is > that much of the > world's biodiversity exists in close proximity to > farmland, and that's > not likely to change anytime soon. " If we simply try > to maintain > biodiversity in islands around the world, we will > lose most of it, " she > said. " It's very important to make areas between > those islands friendly > to biodiversity. The idea of those areas being > pesticide-drenched fields > is just going to be a disaster for biodiversity, > especially in the > tropics. The world would be able to sustain high > levels of biodiversity > much better if we could change agriculture on a > large scale. " > > Badgley's team went out of the way to make its > assumptions as > conservative as possible: most of the studies they > used looked at the > yields of a single crop, even though many organic > farms grow more than > one crop in a field at the same time, yielding more > total food even if > the yield of any given crop may be lower. Skeptics > may doubt the team's > conclusions--as ecologists, they are likely to be > sympathetic to organic > farming--but a second recent study of the potential > of a global shift to > organic farming, led by Niels Halberg of the Danish > Institute of > Agricultural Sciences, came to very similar > conclusions, even though the > authors were economists, agronomists, and > international development experts. > > Like the Michigan team, Halberg's group made an > assumption about the > differences in yields with organic farming for a > range of crops and then > plugged those numbers into a model developed by the > World Bank's > International Food Policy Research Institute > (IFPRI). This model is > considered the definitive algorithm for predicting > food output, farm > income, and the number of hungry people throughout > the world. Given the > growing interest in organic farming among consumers, > government > officials, and agricultural scientists, the > researchers wanted to assess > whether a large-scale conversion to organic farming > in Europe and North > America (the world's primary food exporting regions) > would reduce > yields, increase world food prices, or worsen hunger > in poorer nations > that depend on imports, particularly those people > living in the Third > World's swelling megacities. Although the group > found that total food > production declined in Europe and North America, the > model didn't show a > substantial impact on world food prices. And because > the model assumed, > like the Michigan study, that organic farming would > boost yields in > Africa,Asia, and Latin America, the most optimistic > scenario even had > hunger-plagued sub-Saharan Africa exporting food > surpluses. > > " Modern non-certified organic farming is a > potentially sustainable > approach to agricultural development in areas with > low yields due to > poor access to inputs or low yield potential because > it involves lower > economic risk than comparative interventions based > on purchased inputs > and may increase farm level resilience against > climatic fluctuations, " > Halberg's team concluded. In other words, studies > from the field show > that the yield increases from shifting to organic > farming are highest > and most consistent in exactly those poor, dry, > remote areas where > hunger is most severe. " Organic agriculture could be > an important part > of increased food security in sub-Saharan Africa, " > says Halberg. > > That is, if other problems can be overcome. " A lot > of research is to try > to kill prejudices, " Halberg says--like the notion > that organic farming > is only a luxury, and one that poorer nations cannot > afford. " I'd like > to kill this once and for all. The two sides are > simply too far from > each other and they ignore the realities of the > global food system. " > Even if a shift toward organic farming boosted > yields in hungry African > and Asian nations, the model found that nearly a > billion people remained > hungry, because any surpluses were simply exported > to areas that could > best afford it. > > These conclusions about yields won't come as a > surprise to many organic > farmers. They have seen with their own eyes and felt > with their own > hands how productive they can be. But some > supporters of organic farming > shy away from even asking whether it can feed the > world, simply because > they don't think it's the most useful question. > There is good reason to > believe that a global conversion to organic farming > would not proceed as > seamlessly as plugging some yield ratios into a > spreadsheet. > > To begin with, organic farming isn't as easy as > farming with chemicals. > Instead of choosing a pesticide to prevent a pest > outbreak, for example, > a particular organic farmer might consider altering > his crop rotation, > planting a crop that will repel the pest or one that > will attract its > predators--decisions that require some > experimentation and long-term > planning. Moreover, the IFPRI study suggested that a > large-scale > conversion to organic farming might require that > most dairy and beef > production eventually " be better integrated in > cereal and other cash > crop rotations " to optimize use of the manure. > Bringing cows back to one > or two farms to build up soil fertility may seem > like a no-brainer, but > doing it wholesale would be a challenge--and dumping > ammonia on depleted > soils still makes for a quicker fix. > > Again, these are just theoretical assumptions, since > a global shift to > organic farming could take decades. But farmers are > ingenious and > industrious people and they tend to cope with > whatever problems are at > hand. Eliminate nitrogen fertilizer and many farmers > will probably graze > cows on their fields to compensate. Eliminate > fungicides and farmers > will look for fungus-resistant crop varieties. As > more and more farmers > begin to farm organically, everyone will get better > at it. Agricultural > research centers, universities, and agriculture > ministries will throw > their resources into this type of farming--in sharp > contrast to their > current neglect of organic agriculture, which partly > stems from the > assumption that organic farmers will never play a > major role in the > global food supply. > > So the problems of adopting organic techniques do > not seem > insurmountable. But those problems may not deserve > most of our > attention; even if a mass conversion over, say, the > next two decades, > dramatically increased food production, there's > little guarantee it > would eradicate hunger. The global food system can > be a complex and > unpredictable beast. It's hard to anticipate how > China's rise as a major > importer of soybeans for its feedlots, for instance, > might affect food > supplies elsewhere. (It's likely to drive up food > prices.) Or how > elimination of agricultural subsidies in wealthy > nations might affect > poorer countries. (It's likely to boost farm incomes > and reduce hunger.) > And would less meat eating around the world free up > food for the hungry? > (It would, but could the hungry afford it?) In other > words, " Can organic > farming feed the world? " is probably not even the > right question, since > feeding the world depends more on politics and > economics than any > technological innovations. > > " 'Can organic farming feed the world' is indeed a > bogus question, " says > Gene Kahn, a long-time organic farmer who founded > Cascadian Farms > organic foods and is now vice president of > sustainable development for > General Mills. " The real question is, can we feed the > world? Period. Can > we fix the disparities in human nutrition? " Kahn > notes that the marginal > difference in today's organic yields and the yields > of conventional > agriculture wouldn't matter if food surpluses were > redistributed. > > But organic farming will yield other benefits that > are too numerous to > name. Studies have shown, for example, that the > " external " costs of > organic farming-- erosion, chemical pollution to > drinking water, death > of birds and other wildlife--are just one-third > those of conventional > farming. Surveys from every continent show that > organic farms support > many more species of birds, wild plants, insects, > and other wildlife > than conventional farms. And tests by several > governments have shown > that organic foods carry just a tiny fraction of the > pesticide residues > of the nonorganic alternatives, while completely > banning growth > hormones, antibiotics, and many additives allowed in > many conventional > foods. There is even some evidence that crops grown > organically have > considerably higher levels of health-promoting > antioxidants. > > There are social benefits as well. Because organic > farming doesn't > depend on expensive > > inputs, it might help shift the balance towards > smaller farmers in > hungry nations. A 2002 report from the UN Food and > Agriculture > Organization noted that " organic systems can double > or triple the > productivity of traditional systems " in developing > nations but suggested > that yield comparisons offer a " limited, narrow, and > often misleading > picture " since farmers in these countries often > adopt organic farming > techniques to save water, save money, and reduce the > variability of > yields in extreme conditions. A more recent study by > the International > Fund for Agricultural Development found that the > higher labor > requirements often mean that " organic agriculture > can prove particularly > effective in bringing redistribution of resources in > areas where the > labour force is underemployed. This can help > contribute to rural stability. " > > These benefits will come even without a complete > conversion to a sort of > organic utopia. In fact, some experts think that a > more hopeful, and > reasonable, way forward is a sort of middle ground, > where more and more > farmers adopt the principles of organic farming even > if they don't > follow the approach religiously. In this scenario, > both poor farmers and > the environment come out way ahead. " Organic > agriculture is /not/ going > to do the trick, " says Roland Bunch, an agricultural > extensionist who > has worked for decades in Africa and the Americas > and is now with > COSECHA (Association of Consultants for a > Sustainable, Ecological, and > People-Centered Agriculture) in Honduras. Bunch > knows first-hand that > organic agriculture can produce more than > conventional farming among > poorer farmers. But he also knows that these farmers > cannot get the > premium prices paid for organic produce elsewhere, > and that they are > often unable, and unwilling, to shoulder some of the > costs and risks > associated with going completely organic. > > Instead, Bunch points to " a middle path, " of > eco-agriculture, or > low-input agriculture that uses many of the > principles of organic > farming and depends on just a small fraction of the > chemicals. " These > systems can immediately produce two or three times > what smallholder > farmers are presently producing, " Bunch says. " And > furthermore, it is > attractive to smallholder farmers because it is less > costly per unit > produced. " In addition to the immediate gains in > food production, Bunch > suggests that the benefits for the environment of > this middle path will > be far greater than going " totally organic, " because > " something like > five to ten times as many smallholder farmers will > adopt it per unit of > extension and training expense, because it behooves > them economically. > They aren't taking food out of their kids' mouths. > If five farmers > eliminate half their use of chemicals, the effect on > the environment > will be two and one-half times as great as if one > farmer goes totally > organic. " > > And farmers who focus on building their soils, > increasing biodiversity, > or bringing livestock into their rotation aren't > precluded from > occasionally turning to biotech crops or synthetic > nitrogen or any other > yield-enhancing innovations in the future, > particularly in places where > the soils are heavily depleted. " In the end, if we > do things right, > we'll build a lot of organic into conventional > systems, " says Don > Lotter, the agricultural consultant. Like Bunch, > Lotter notes that such > an " integrated " approach often out-performs both a > strictly organic and > chemical-intensive approach in terms of yield, > economics, and > environmental benefits. Still, Lotter's not sure > we'll get there > tomorrow, since the world's farming is hardly > pointed in the organic > direction--which could be the real problem for the > world's poor and > hungry. " There is such a huge area in sub-Saharan > Africa and South > America where the Green Revolution has never made an > impact and it's > unlikely that it will for the next generation of > poor farmers, " argues > Niels Halberg, the Danish scientist who lead the > IFPRI study. " It seems > that agro-ecological measures for some of these > areas have a beneficial > impact on yields and food insecurity. So why not > seriously try it out? " > > Brian Halweil /is a Senior Researcher at Worldwatch > and the author of > /Eat Here: Reclaiming Homegrown Pleasures in a/ > /Global Supermarket.// > > For more information about issues raised in this > story, visit > > *www.worldwatch.org/ww/organic*. > > © Clemens Kalischer > > Inserts from original article: > > ENOUGH NITROGEN TO GO AROUND? > > In addition to looking at raw yields, the University > of Michigan > scientists also examined the common concern that > there aren't enough > available sources of non-synthetic > nitrogen--compost, manure, and plant > residues--in the world to support large-scale > organic farming. For > instance, in his book /Enriching the Earth: Fritz > Haber, Carl Bosch, and > the/ /Transformation of World Food Production/, > Vaclav Smil argues that > roughly two-thirds of the world's food harvest > depends on the > Haber-Bosch process, the technique developed in the > early 20th century > to synthesize ammonia fertilizer from fossil fuels. > (Smil admits that he > largely ignored the contribution of nitrogen-fixing > crops and assumed > that some of them, like soybeans, are net users of > nitrogen, although he > himself points out that on average half of all the > fertilizer applied > globally is wasted and not taken up by plants.) Most > critics of organic > farming as a means to feed the world focus on how > much manure--and how > much related pastureland and how many head of > livestock--would be needed > to fertilize the world's organic farms. " The issue > of nitrogen is > different in different regions, " says Don Lotter, an > agricultural > consultant who has published widely on organic > farming and nutrient > requirements. " But lots more nitrogen comes in as > green manure than > animal manure. " > > Looking at 77 studies from the temperate areas and > tropics, the Michigan > team found that greater use of nitrogen-fixing crops > in the world's > major agricultural regions could result in 58 > million metric tons more > nitrogen than the amount of synthetic nitrogen > currently used every year. > > Research at the Rodale Institute in Pennsylvania > showed that red clover > used as a winter cover in an oat/wheat-corn-soy > rotation, with no > additional fertilizer inputs, achieved yields > comparable to those in > conventional control fields. Even in arid and > semi-arid tropical regions > like East Africa, where water availability is > limited between periods of > crop production, drought-resistant green manures > such as pigeon peas or > groundnuts could be used to fix nitrogen. In > Washington state, organic > wheat growers have matched their non-organic > neighbor's wheat yields > using the same field pea rotation for nitrogen. In > Kenya, farmers using > leguminous tree crops have doubled or tripled corn > yields as well as > suppressing certain stubborn weeds and generating > additional animal fodder. > > The Michigan results imply that no additional land > area is required to > obtain enough biologically available nitrogen, even > without including > the potential for intercropping (several crops grown > in the same field > at the same time), rotation of livestock with annual > crops, and > inoculation of soil with /Azobacter, Azospirillum/, > and other > free-living nitrogen-fixing bacteria. > > FOOD VERSUS FUEL > > Sometimes, when humans try to solve one problem, > they end up creating > another. The global food supply is already under > serious strain: more > than 800 million people go hungry every day, the > world's population > continues to expand, and a growing number of people > in the developing > world are changing to a more Western, meat-intensive > diet that requires > more grain and water per calorie than traditional > diets do. Now comes > another potential stressor: concern about climate > change means that more > nations are interested in converting crops into > biofuels as an > alternative to fossil fuels. > > But could this transition remove land from food > production and further > intensify problems of world hunger? For several > reasons, some analysts > say no, at least not in the near future. First, they > emphasize that > nearly 40 percent of global cereal crops are fed to > livestock, not > humans, and that global prices of grains and oil > seeds do not always > affect the cost of food for the hungry, who > generally > > cannot participate in formal markets anyway. > > Second, at least to date, hunger has been due > primarily to inadequate > income and distribution rather than absolute food > scarcity. In this > regard, a biofuels economy may actually help to > reduce hunger and > poverty. A recent UN Food and Agriculture > Organization report argued > that increased use of biofuels could diversify > agricultural and forestry > activities, attract investment in new small and > medium-sized > enterprises, and increase investment in agricultural > production, thereby > increasing the incomes of the world's poorest > people. > > Third, biofuel refineries in the future will depend > less on food crops > and increasingly on organic wastes and residues. > Producing biofuels from > corn stalks, rice hulls, sawdust, or waste paper is > unlikely to affect > food production directly. And there are > drought-resistant grasses, > fast-growing trees, and other energy crops that will > grow on marginal > lands unsuitable for raising food. > > Nonetheless, with growing human appetites for both > food and fuel, > biofuels' long-run potential may be limited by the > priority given to > food production if bioenergy systems are not > harmonized with food > systems. The most optimistic assessments of the > long-term potential of > biofuels have assumed that agricultural yields will > continue to improve > and that world population growth and food > consumption will stabilize. > But the assumption about population may prove to be > wrong. And yields, > organic or otherwise, may not improve enough if > agriculture in the > future is threatened by declining water tables or > poor soil maintenance. > > > -- > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > WHO WE ARE: This e-mail service shares information > to help more people > discuss crucial policy issues affecting global food > security. > The service is managed by Amber McNair of the > University of Toronto > in partnership with the Centre for Urban Health > Initiatives (CUHI) and > Wayne Roberts of the Toronto Food Policy Council, in > partnership with > the Community Food Security Coalition, World Hunger > Year, and > International Partners for Sustainable Agriculture. > > Please help by sending information or names and > e-mail addresses of > co-workers who'd like to receive this service, to > foodnews. To or , please > visit http://list.web.net/lists/listinfo/food-news. > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > I did the 2006 CN Tower Climb for World Wildlife Fund. I raised $1,010. Thank you. _____________ food-news mailing list food-news http://list.web.net/lists/listinfo/food-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.