MSNBC- WHO: Over 7 million could die in flu pandemic

[Guest guest]

>WHO: Over 7 million could die in flu pandemic

>The U.N. health agency on said it was impossible

>to estimate how many people may would die from a

>new influenza pandemic.

>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9535929/

WHO: Impossible to estimate pandemic deaths

'You could pick almost any number,' health official warns

The Associated Press

Updated: 2:21 p.m. ET Sept. 30, 2005

 

 

GENEVA - The U.N. health agency on Friday said it

was impossible to estimate how many people would

die from a new influenza pandemic, adding that it

has warned countries to prepare for a death toll

of up to 7.4 million.

 

" We think that this is the most reasoned

position, " said World Health Organization

spokesman Dick Thompson, warning that " you could

pick almost any number. "

 

On Thursday, Dr. David Nabarro - the new U.N.

coordinator for avian and human influenza - had

warned that the " range of deaths could be

anything between 5 and 150 million " from a new

pandemic.

 

" One of those numbers will turn out to be right, "

Thompson told reporters. " We're not going to know

how lethal the next pandemic is going to be until

the pandemic begins. "

 

Several scientists have made predictions on how

many people could die in a flu pandemic, and

estimates have ranged from less than 2 million to

more than 100 million.

 

The number of deaths will depend largely on how

contagious and lethal the virus is - two factors

that cannot be known until the pandemic strain

emerges.

 

However, even though several estimates could be

plausible, WHO " can't be dragged into further

scaremongering, " Thompson told reporters.

 

The H5N1 strain of bird flu has swept through

poultry populations in large swathes of Asia

since 2003, jumping to humans and killing at

least 65 people - more than 40 of them in Vietnam

- and resulting in the deaths of tens of millions

of birds.

 

Most human cases have been linked to contact with

sick birds. But WHO has warned that the virus

could mutate into a form that spreads easily

among humans - possibly triggering a global

pandemic that could kill millions.

 

Halt disease before epidemic

Southeast Asia's agriculture ministers endorsed a

regional plan Friday to combat bird flu and

pledged to cooperate with international agencies

in a move they hope will win enough aid to halt

the disease before it becomes a catastrophic

epidemic.

 

The ministers from the 10-member Association of

Southeast Asian Nations, meeting in Tagaytay,

Philippines, said in a statement that the flu

requires " an all-out coordinated regional effort. "

 

The meeting in the Philippines ended with the

ASEAN ministers' joint statement endorsing a

regional plan for control and eradication of bird

flu over three years from 2006 and directing a

new task force to urgently formulate " a detailed

action plan for implementation and proceed to

identify potential sources of funding. "

 

The plan covers eight strategic areas, including

a disease surveillance and alert system,

vaccination, improving diagnostic capability and

establishing disease-free zones.

 

The regional framework dovetails with a

three-year plan drafted by the U.N. Food and

Agriculture Organization, the World Organization

for Animal Health, or OIE, and the WHO in May, to

be presented to international donors in December

for implementation next year.

 

" What we hope to do at the (regional) task force

level is to supplement what is going on, what is

being done by each individual country and to work

with FAO, OIE and WHO, " Singapore's Minister for

National Development Mah Bow Tan told a news

conference.

 

ASEAN Deputy Secretary General Wilfrido

Villacorta said given the gravity of the problem

" we are confident that we shall continue to have

the support of our dialogue partners. "

 

The ASEAN animal health trust fund formally

established at the meeting " gives the signal to

potential donors that ASEAN member countries are

serious about eradicating the avian flu as well

as other diseases that are facing the region, " he

added. Pledges of $2 million have been made for

the fund, which is separate from a regional one

for bird flu that ASEAN hopes to have, officials

said.

 

ASEAN comprises Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia,

the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Brunei,

Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar.

 

" It's important that we have the political

commitment of the region so we can effectively

invite the donors to back the program (on bird

flu), " said Subhash Mozaria, FAO chief technical

adviser.

© 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

This material may not be published, broadcast,

rewritten or redistributed.

 

© 2005 MSNBC.com

 

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9535929/

--