MSNBC/Washington Post 2/5/05: As SE Asian farms boom, stage set for pandemic

[Guest guest]

>

>WP: Stage set for Asian bird flu pandemic

>With chickens packed into farmyards alongside

>other livestock in Southeast Asia, international

>health experts warn that conditions are set for

>a bird flu pandemic that could kill millions

>worldwide.

>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6916279/

>

 

As SE Asian farms boom, stage set for pandemic

Conditions ripe for spread of bird flu, health experts warn

By Alan Sipress

The Washington Post

Updated: 12:31 a.m. ET Feb. 5, 2005

 

BANGLANE, Thailand - Prathum Buaklee stepped

nimbly along the aging planks running between the

cages of his chicken farm, shoveling grain with

his meaty hands from a bucket into the feed

trays. His feet were bare and caked with dirt.

The old plaid shirt hanging on his stocky frame

was soiled. And the air was rank with the smell

of feathers, droppings and feed.

 

This soft-spoken farmer is part of an agrarian

revolution in Southeast Asia and China that has

more than doubled poultry production in barely a

decade, bringing pick-up trucks, air conditioning

and other trappings of prosperity to

long-destitute peasants and more protein to the

diets of hundreds of millions of ordinary Asians.

 

Conditions set for pandemic

But with chickens now packed into farmyards

alongside other livestock, international health

experts warn that conditions are set for a bird

flu pandemic that could kill millions worldwide

if the virus developed into a form capable of

spreading among humans.

 

In its current form, the disease kills about

three quarters of the people who catch it from

birds. Since the beginning of last year, 45

people in the region have been infected. Twelve

Vietnamese and one Cambodian have died this year.

 

A year ago, as Thailand became the epicenter of

an avian influenza outbreak, local officials

descended on Prathum's farm and put his chickens

to death along with tens of millions in the rest

of the country. The campaign was meant to stem

the spread of a disease that has struck nine

Asian countries.

 

The mass culling, however, did not stop the

virus. And now, many poultry farmers are back in

business, again raising their birds in unsanitary

conditions that health experts say pose a threat

unprecedented in modern agriculture.

 

Prathum, 54, has restocked his farm in central

Thailand, rebuilding his flock though not his

confidence. His brown eyes have grown heavy. Bags

hang low on sun-baked cheeks and a deep furrow

cuts across his broad forehead.

 

" Even if we're afraid of the disease returning,

what can we do? Nothing, " he said. " We can't run

away. "

 

Resistance to change

U.N. agriculture officials say farmers can take

simple steps to prevent the disease from

spreading. They can require that workers

disinfect their shoes, change clothing and spray

their vehicles before entering a poultry farm.

They can ban outsiders from chicken sheds, keep

other animals away and keep egg trays and cages

clean.

 

But farmers resist such measures, health and

agriculture experts say. And governments in the

region lack the money, manpower and, at times,

political will to enforce these requirements on

an industry that has become a vital component of

economic growth.

 

As a result, the prevalence of the infection in

birds makes a new, more deadly human outbreak

likely. Public health experts say it is only a

matter of time before the flu strain remakes

itself, unleashing a disease that is both highly

lethal and as easy to catch as an ordinary flu

bug.

 

If this occurs, World Health Organization

officials predict that in the most optimistic

scenario between 2 million and 7 million people

would die worldwide and that the toll could

potentially reach 100 million. Health experts say

the virus has already exhibited traits similar to

those that caused the Spanish flu pandemic of

1918, which is estimated to have killed some 40

million people.

 

Tommy G. Thompson, former U.S. secretary of heath

and human services, told reporters at his

farewell news conference in December that avian

flu was his greatest health fear. He called it a

" really huge bomb " that concerned him even more

than bioterrorism.

 

Poultry and prosperity

Until 15 years ago, Prathum and other farmers

said the area around Banglane was an

uninterrupted expanse of glistening emerald rice

paddies where villagers traveled in small wooden

boats along countless canals. The few roads were

dirt tracks navigated by ox cart.

 

Prathum, whose forefathers had been rice farmers

in the wetlands of central Thailand, dropped out

of school after fourth grade to follow in the

family tradition. The income he earned was " just

barely enough to make a living, " he recalled.

 

In the late 1980s, as he continued to toil in the

rice fields, Thailand was undergoing far-reaching

economic changes. It was becoming a manufacturing

center in the globalized market, recording growth

rates of nearly 10 percent a year. Rising incomes

for many Thais meant greater demand for a better

diet, in particular animal protein.

 

Nowhere was this truer than in Bangkok, the

booming capital. Prathum's home province of

Suphan Buri, located 70 miles to the north, was

strategically located to meet this demand for

chicken, duck and eggs.

 

Taking the lead from a neighbor, Prathum started

in 1991 with 300 hens and began selling eggs. His

flock grew steadily until it reached 15,000. He

bought about 20 acres of land, more than tripling

the size of his farm, and ultimately erected

seven open-sided poultry sheds suspended above

artificial ponds, which he stocked with fish to

supplement his income. Each shed stretches about

40 yards under a pitched metal roof. Wood planks

splattered with droppings run between the cages.

 

He bought a pair of Ford pick-ups, replaced his

leaky clapboard hovel with a home three times as

large and outfitted it with a color television,

refrigerator and air conditioning. He gave each

of his three children a computer and sent two

sons to college, one of whom is studying

veterinary science.

 

" I feel grateful to the chickens, " said Prathum.

" Chickens are like human beings. You take care of

them well and they'll take care of you. "

 

'The chickens were like my children'

So when livestock officials came to the farm in

December 2003, the order to kill the chickens was

a great shock. " They came by the hundreds in

trucks, bringing soldiers and prisoners to kill

the chickens, " said Prathum's wife, Samrouy, 47,

her leathery hands raised in exasperation. Avian

flu had been discovered in a poultry shed down

the road. Thai officials were demanding that all

poultry in the area be culled as a precaution.

Workers dug a mass grave at the end of the

property with a backhoe and buried the birds

alive.

 

" It broke my heart, " Samrouy recounted between

rounds of collecting eggs. She wiped her rich

brown eyes with a red-and-green checked scarf. " I

felt that the chickens were like my children. "

 

After nine months, weary of sitting idle, Prathum

decided to restock his farm. He draped fishing

nets over his sheds, as required under new

government regulations, to keep out wild birds

that local officials said might carry the disease.

 

But Prathum adopted none of the other safeguards

that veterinary officials recommended, such as

barring visitors and other animals from the farm.

He continued to raise fish in the ponds, which

attract waterfowl that could spread the virus.

Neighboring farmers in filthy work clothes visit

with Prathum inside the sheds as he feeds the

flock and collects the eggs. Even his black

dachshund follows him on his rounds.

 

A perfect viral storm

In Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, the number of

chickens nearly tripled from the late 1980s until

early last year, according to figures from the

U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. China

recorded a doubling in its poultry population,

adding 2 billion chickens since 1988.

 

This meant that ordinary citizens across these

countries were getting much more protein in their

diets, with daily intake from chicken doubling in

some places and tripling in others. Consumption

of eggs increased nearly as quickly.

 

The number of ducks, another common source of

meat in this part of the world, was also up

sharply. In retrospect, that was particularly

worrisome because experts believe ducks play a

crucial role in spreading the disease among

birds, because they remain symptom-free longer

and wander more widely than chickens.

 

So far, researchers believe two people have

caught the virus directly from another person,

according to an article published last month in

the New England Journal of Medicine examining how

the disease spread within one Thai family.

 

It will take more for avian flu to spread rapidly

among people. The current H5N1 strain would have

to acquire genetic material from a human flu bug

in a process called re-assortment. That worst

fears of public health experts could come true if

a person catches both flu strains at the same

time. Scientists, however, have demonstrated that

this mixing of strains could also occur in other

mammals, notably pigs. Ominously, the Asian swine

population has also increased significantly.

 

It could be the gathering of a perfect storm:

dense concentrations of chickens, pigs, aquatic

birds and people. " Its clear that Southeast Asia

poses the greatest risk today of a new virus

unfolding and coming forward as a pandemic

strain, " said Michael Osterholm, director of the

Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy

at the University of Minnesota. " Darwin could not

have created a more efficient re-assortment

laboratory if he tried. "

 

Counting on good fortune

U.N. and other agriculture experts say the cost

of adopting simple safeguards is low but requires

a change in attitude, as happened in the United

States and Europe, when they went through their

own chicken revolutions nearly four decades ago.

 

The dramatic increase in poultry production on

both sides of the Atlantic was fueled by rising

incomes after World War II, rapid urbanization

and technical breakthroughs.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture launched an

aggressive campaign to educate farmers about

safety, said Carol Cardona, a poultry

veterinarian at the University of California at

Davis. Farmers realized they had much to lose if

disease broke out and readily adopted the

measures, she said.

 

Nirundorn Aungtragoolsuk, director of disease

control in the Thai department of livestock

development, said his government recently adopted

strict regulations for large, export-oriented

chicken farms. But the rules do not apply to most

Thai farms.

 

" They have done it their way for a long time and

we cannot change it overnight, " Nirundorn said,

adding that his department was too understaffed

to enforce requirements.

 

Prathum admitted he was counting on good fortune

to avoid a bird flu outbreak among his flock.

" I'm still scared but what can I do? " he said.

" We'd never had bird flu before. It just came. "

 

He acknowledged that his sons had been

encouraging him to adopt modern safeguards. His

older son, the student of veterinary science, had

been particularly outspoken. " I may not be able

to learn about these as fast as young people, "

Prathum said. " I'll retire after a while and pass

the farm on to my son. Then, he can do what he

wants. "

© 2005 The Washington Post Company

 

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6916279/

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