China's population to hit 1.5bn

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China's population to hit 1.5bn

From correspondents in Shanghai, China

http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,11182072%255E1702,00.htm

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October 25, 2004

 

CHINA'S population, now the world's largest at 1.3 billion, will peak at

just under 1.5 billion in about 30 years, the country's head of

population planning has said.

 

" The nation's population will still increase by about 10 million

annually and reach a peak of 1.46 billion in the mid-2030s, " the

state-run newspaper Shanghai Daily newspaper quoted Zhang Weiqing as

saying.

 

The expanding working-age population will put massive pressure on the

economy to create jobs, while the aging population strains government

resources such as health care, Zhang was quoted as saying.

 

Both the working and aged populations are expected to peak in about 20

years, he said, adding that " the peaks are the toughest challenges for

China's sustainable development. "

 

Zhang's peak figure of 1.46 billion is somewhat lower than previous

estimates. As recently as August, official media were predicting the

population would top out at 1.55 billion between 2035 and 2045. Other

independent studies have also said population would reach 1.5 billion

before going into a sharp decline as lower birth rates kick in.

 

China imposed a policy of allowing one child per family about 30 years

ago, following a post-World War II baby boom. Chinese experts say it has

reduced overall population growth by about 300 million births over the

past decade.

 

China's working-age population aged between 15 and 64 will max out at

940 million people, straining an economy that is already struggling to

produce enough jobs.

 

The population will be aging steadily, putting massive pressure on

already creaky government services such as health care. People aged 60

and over now make up 11 percent of the total population. Officials say

that proportion is set to surge to about one quarter of the population

by 2050.

 

The government recently began allowing more families to have second

children in hopes of easing the future burden of fewer worker supporting

a growing number of retirees.

 

The Shanghai Daily said Zhang spoke at an international symposium on

population issues over the weekend in Shanghai. Staff at the Population

Commission's press office said a copy of the text wasn't immediately

available.

 

The newspaper said Shanghai will likely add up to 4 million to its

current population of 20 million by around 2020. Though that will strain

resources, the city could handle a population of up to 30 million, it

cited researchers at Shanghai's Fudan University as saying.

 

Experts attending the population conference expressed concern over

China's rising disparity between births of boys and girls.

 

Birth limits coupled with a traditional preference for male heirs has

led families to use modern technology such as sonogram machines to

determine babies' genders before they are born. Unwanted girls are often

aborted.

 

Nationwide, 117 boys are born for every 100 girls. The ratio in some

rural areas is as high as 130 boys to 100 girls.

 

Worldwide, fewer than 110 boys are born to every 100 girls.

 

If current trends continue, officials say China could have as many as 40

million men who can't find spouses by 2020.

 

India currently has the world's second largest population with just over

1 billion people, but is expected to overtake China by 2050, when India

will have over 1.6 billion people.

 

The United States is expected to have about 420 million people by that

year, from about 300 million now.

 

The Associated Press