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Robert Cohen

notmilk

Sunday, January 18, 2004 3:08 AM

NOTMILK - Wall Street & Mad Cows

 

 

Wall Street & Mad Cows

 

Were Wall Street insiders given an illegal heads up

regarding America's first mad cow? In reviewing market

data, there seems to be something rotten in the stock

market, and I'm not referring to feed lots, where cows

are fattened by being force fed lots of corn and live

in their own excrement. Come to think of it, that seems

a lot like the ugliest part of Wall Street that often

produces insider trading scandals.

 

Speaking of ugly, take a look at the chief advisors

to USDA Secretary Ann Veneman. Her closest aides have

ties to the meat industry. There is a long paper trail

from her office which leads directly to meat-producing

National Cattleman's Association.

 

On December 23, 2003, after the stock market had ended

its daily trading, USDA announced that a suspected

case of Mad Cow Disease had been indentified in the

state of Washington. Two days later, lab tests confirmed

cattlemen's worst fear. USDA possessed this information

long before their official announcement.

 

Who are these USDA phonies kidding? Americans, that's

who. They alerted us on the evening of December 23rd that

there was a " suspected " mad cow. By then, it was too

late for most Americans to return Christmas roast beasts

to their butchers. On Christmas day, we were told that

the brain of that animal tested positive in a British

lab for Mad Cow Disease. A few days later, entire herds

were placed into quarantine. Over six hundred animals

have been slaughtered. Analyses of their brains takes 2-3

weeks to reach anxious consumers. So, figure it out.

How then, could the analyses of the first cow brain take

just two days? No way. The animal's brain was sent to

experts in England for careful analyses many weeks earlier.

What had been kept from Americans was truth. Cattlemen

had an opportunity to prepare for this.

 

A historical review of market trades reveals that the bad

news may have been delivered to meat industry insiders

three weeks earlier. They had plenty of time to do damage

control before the rest of America got the news. Publicists

and spin doctors applied their form of marketing medication

so that the bad news would be buffered by rosy outlooks

from Veneman and President Bush.

 

An official investigation should ask why did stock market

prices began to fall lomg before the announcement. That

same investigation will explore why stock market prices for

McDonald's and Wendy's increased in the days and weeks

after the Mad Cow revelation. The market should have gone

down, not up. Is the world insane?

 

The timing of the release of this story should not come as

any comfort to the Seattle families who dined on tainted

beef from that mad cow. For them, the fear of Mad Cow Disease

is something that they will live with for many years.

 

Let's examine trade histories for McDonalds (MCD)

and Wendy's (WEN):

 

.......12/3...12/17...12/24...01/2...01/9...01/16

 

MCD $26.58 $24.50 $23.96 $24.79 $25.15 $25.31

WEN $40.30 $37.97 $37.39 $39.11 $38.00 $39.49

 

It is clear to see that during the two week period

from 12/3-12/17, both hamburger stocks were hit with

bad news about " something. " Billions of dollars in

stockholder equity is not lost for " no reason. "

 

Before the official announcement was made, in that

fourteen day period, McDonalds lost 9.86 percent of its

equity, while Wendy's lost 7.22 percent of its value.

Insiders were trading on serious information. That is

clear. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

should immediately launch their own investigation.

 

So, with the worst case scenario for meat producers,

why is it that stock prices for fast food burger

companies have recovered so rapidly? Because meat

producers have had enough time to prepare an

unprecedented publicity campaign. Subtle at times,

overwhelming at others. Bush went bird hunting, then

dined on a well publicized steak. Ann Veneman did the

same. Governors and Senators, Congressmena and Mayors,

all dined on beef, proclaiming versions of " it can't

happen here. " American consumers swallowed the

brainwashing. Hook, line, and stinker.

 

How is Wall Street reacting? The proof is in the

(blood) pudding.

 

Closing Prices January 16, 2004, just 23 days

after news of the first mad cow hit:

 

McDonald's Burgers (MCD) $25.31 (up 5.63%)

Wendy's Burgers (WEN) $39.49 (up 4.50%)

 

Animal rights activists demand safe conditions for

animals. No more downer cows. Larger living crates.

Better feed. Old Chinese proverb: Be careful what

you ask for. Your wish might come true.

 

USDA has both been working hard to insure that

America's meat remains safe to eat. New regulations

and laws will be passed. Thanks to one mad cow and

AR activisim, more meat will be eaten. More animals

are to be killed.

 

The American conscience is relieved. Meat is safe

to eat, or so we are told. As Americans become convinced

that meat is safe, more meat will be eaten. Cattlemen are

realizing record high prices.

 

So, how's the meat industry doing?

They seem to be having no beef with mad cows.

 

Robert Cohen

http://www.notmilk.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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