Do you think the Economy has turned around???

[Guest guest]

Has the Economy turned

around???

Take a look at that first graph. Can you say exponential

curve??? I knew you could ;o)

 

The Four Stats I look at in order to predict World Future

Trends on a Political, Social Level are:

 

 

Real Estate (Price Trends); (# of Foreclosures); (Are

Tent Cities Growing or Contracting);

 

Employment. (The Total of Unemployed v/s the # of

Employed as below)

 

The Gold / Silver Ratio. (can be found at:

http://www.kitco.com/market/ )

 

The rise or fall of Injustice Reports

 

 

Taking into consideration, that sometimes you have to dig for

the correct stats (the government is not above a falsification here

& there), the above can give you great insight as to decisions you

might make in regards, where you live, your job, etc.

 

All the best,

 

Doc

 

24,700,000 Unemployed or Underemployed Americans: Job

Losses Accelerate with 6 million unemployed over last year. Real

Unemployment rate now at 15.8 Percent.

 

Posted by mybudget360 in Employment,

bailout, bls, economy, government,

unemployment

3 Comment

 

 

 

 

 

It is hard to believe what is taken as good news. 539,000 jobs were

lost in April yet this was taken as a positive because it wasn’t

600,000. Forget about the fact that the revised number for March was

moved upward to 699,000 from an initial 663,000. So it may be the case

when the final number for April is calculated in June, we might have

another 600,000 job loss month. The market is continuing on its upward

surge with the S & P 500 now nearing a 40% gain in 2 months. This

market volatility and surge is indicative of an unstable market.

The fact of the matter is, when we total up all of the

unemployed and underemployed we find that close to 24,700,000 Americans

fall in this category.

 

Over the past 12 months the number of unemployed has risen by 6

million. Also, if you look at the above chart, the rate has shot up by

3.9% from 5% last April of 2008 to the current 8.9%. Yet that rate is

for those that are unemployed. When we start looking at the broader

measure of U-6 we see that 15.8% of people are unemployed or

underemployed. Let us break down the numbers:

Unemployed:

13,700,000

Part-time but looking for full-time:

8,900,000

Marginally Attached and Discouraged Workers: 2,100,000

This brings our total to 24,700,000. That is why when we go back to

the 1982 unemployment rate of 10.8%, we are even in worse shape today

because how the employment numbers are calculated. Part-time workers

looking for full-time work are such a big group but are considered

employed by the U-3 headline number and they should not be. I think

most people would say that someone working part-time at a Wal-Mart

because they are trying to make ends meet does not constitute being

fully employed. This is why we are seeing deflationary

pressure hitting the market.

In October of 1995 the BLS revised their way of collecting data for

unemployment. So if we are at 15.8% with the U-6 data, does that make

our current employment situation worse than the 1980s recession?

Absolutely. Take a look at this chart I found in an old article from

the 1995 BLS revision report:

 

In fact, looking at U-6 data back to the early 1960s which is the

best I have been able to find, we are having the worst

economic recession since World War II.

That is why even though the headline rate of 8.9% is much lower than

the 10.8% peak of 1982, our overall unemployed and underemployed is

much higher at 15.8% and that is why this recession feels a lot worse.

It is a lot worse it is just the method of measuring the data has

changed.

And the rise in part-time employment is somewhat troubling because

of the actions taken by the Federal

Reserve and U.S. Treasury.

With the recent stress tests, it is becoming abundantly clear that the

U.S. Treasury is going to pump as much taxpayer money into banks no

matter what the long-term consequences. Essentially, we are going to

follow the Japan approach. Now Tim Geithner would like to believe that

the mistake Japan did was they stopped too soon or didn’t do enough.

Yet Japan has the highest percentage of national debt load of any

industrial country in the world. They spent plenty. They zombified

banks and injected trillions in fiscal stimulus and the market moved

lower and lower for 20 years. Yet some point to the low employment

rate. Well, the problem with this is nearly 1 out 3 people in Japan

work as part-time workers…that is, they would be considered part of

that U-6 data point which of course isn’t the headline number. How

would you feel about being a part-time worker for the rest of your life?

Don’t believe this? The BLS had 5.2 million part-time workers

categorized in April of 2008 as being part-time for economic reasons.

Last month, that number surged to 8.9 million. A jump of 70 percent in

one year. We almost doubled the amount of part-time workers in 12

months which is such an unsupportable pace and that is why the U-6 rate

is now up to 15.8%.

I do agree that things slightly improved yet it is no reason to

think the worst is behind us. We still have the FDIC

gearing up to take over banks each and every Friday while their deposit

insurance fund gets depleted. Be cautious for what is considered

positive news.

 

Attachment: vcard [not shown]

[Guest guest]

PS. Also, please keep in

mind that stats don't just go down by themselves. Downstats are

created.

Doc

 

Ian wrote:

 

Has the Economy turned

around???

Take a look at that first graph. Can you say exponential

curve??? I knew you could ;o)

 

The Four Stats I look at in order to predict World Future

Trends on a Political, Social Level are:

 

 

Real Estate (Price Trends); (# of Foreclosures); (Are

Tent Cities Growing or Contracting);

 

Employment. (The Total of Unemployed v/s the # of

Employed as below)

 

The Gold / Silver Ratio. (can be found at:

http://www.kitco.com/market/ )

 

 

The rise or fall of Injustice Reports

 

 

Taking into consideration, that sometimes you have to dig for

the correct stats (the government is not above a falsification here

& there), the above can give you great insight as to decisions you

might make in regards, where you live, your job, etc.

 

All the best,

 

Doc

 

24,700,000 Unemployed or Underemployed Americans:

Job

Losses Accelerate with 6 million unemployed over last year. Real

Unemployment rate now at 15.8 Percent.

 

Posted by mybudget360 in Employment,

bailout, bls, economy, government,

unemployment

3 Comment

 

 

 

 

 

It is hard to believe what is taken as good news. 539,000 jobs

were

lost in April yet this was taken as a positive because it wasn’t

600,000. Forget about the fact that the revised number for March was

moved upward to 699,000 from an initial 663,000. So it may be the case

when the final number for April is calculated in June, we might have

another 600,000 job loss month. The market is continuing on its upward

surge with the S & P 500 now nearing a 40% gain in 2 months. This

market volatility and surge is indicative of an unstable market.

The fact of the matter is, when we total up all of the

unemployed and underemployed we find that close to 24,700,000 Americans

fall in this category.

 

Over the past 12 months the number of unemployed has risen by 6

million. Also, if you look at the above chart, the rate has shot up by

3.9% from 5% last April of 2008 to the current 8.9%. Yet that rate is

for those that are unemployed. When we start looking at the broader

measure of U-6 we see that 15.8% of people are unemployed or

underemployed. Let us break down the numbers:

Unemployed:

13,700,000

Part-time but looking for full-time:

8,900,000

Marginally Attached and Discouraged Workers: 2,100,000

This brings our total to 24,700,000. That is why when we go back

to

the 1982 unemployment rate of 10.8%, we are even in worse shape today

because how the employment numbers are calculated. Part-time workers

looking for full-time work are such a big group but are considered

employed by the U-3 headline number and they should not be. I think

most people would say that someone working part-time at a Wal-Mart

because they are trying to make ends meet does not constitute being

fully employed. This is why we are seeing deflationary

pressure hitting the market.

In October of 1995 the BLS revised their way of collecting data

for

unemployment. So if we are at 15.8% with the U-6 data, does that make

our current employment situation worse than the 1980s recession?

Absolutely. Take a look at this chart I found in an old article from

the 1995 BLS revision report:

 

In fact, looking at U-6 data back to the early 1960s which is the

best I have been able to find, we are having the worst

economic recession since World War II.

That is why even though the headline rate of 8.9% is much lower than

the 10.8% peak of 1982, our overall unemployed and underemployed is

much higher at 15.8% and that is why this recession feels a lot worse.

It is a lot worse it is just the method of measuring the data has

changed.

And the rise in part-time employment is somewhat troubling because

of the actions taken by the Federal

Reserve and U.S. Treasury.

With the recent stress tests, it is becoming abundantly clear that the

U.S. Treasury is going to pump as much taxpayer money into banks no

matter what the long-term consequences. Essentially, we are going to

follow the Japan approach. Now Tim Geithner would like to believe that

the mistake Japan did was they stopped too soon or didn’t do enough.

Yet Japan has the highest percentage of national debt load of any

industrial country in the world. They spent plenty. They zombified

banks and injected trillions in fiscal stimulus and the market moved

lower and lower for 20 years. Yet some point to the low employment

rate. Well, the problem with this is nearly 1 out 3 people in Japan

work as part-time workers…that is, they would be considered part of

that U-6 data point which of course isn’t the headline number. How

would you feel about being a part-time worker for the rest of your life?

Don’t believe this? The BLS had 5.2 million part-time workers

categorized in April of 2008 as being part-time for economic reasons.

Last month, that number surged to 8.9 million. A jump of 70 percent in

one year. We almost doubled the amount of part-time workers in 12

months which is such an unsupportable pace and that is why the U-6 rate

is now up to 15.8%.

I do agree that things slightly improved yet it is no reason to

think the worst is behind us. We still have the FDIC

gearing up to take over banks each and every Friday while their deposit

insurance fund gets depleted. Be cautious for what is considered

positive news.

 

 

Attachment: vcard [not shown]

[Guest guest]

Also one must remember that the unemployment facts may be deflated a bit because tose who have lost their benifits because of the time that they have been out of work are no longer counted as unemployed.

 

Also take under consideration that we now own GM and GM has filed for bankrupsy isn't a good sign. It is interesting these bail out funds do not seem to be helping at all and no one has shown where this money has gone and for what. . . So my feeling of this is the economy is going further down the craper and the money we now o the feds is more then most of us should and can bear. And. . . we haven't seen the National Health Care system kick in with the funding of the national Federal Tax that we will never see because it will be hidden from sight. We will only see that everything will cost at least 25% or more when this tax goes into effect. This health care system will burden you and I. Our individual tax burdon win increase by 60%.

--- On Tue, 5/12/09, Ian <docshillington wrote:

Ian <docshillingtonRe: {Herbal Remedies} Do you think the Economy has turned around???herbal remedies Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2009, 3:34 PM

PS. Also, please keep in mind that stats don't just go down by themselves. Downstats are created.DocIan wrote:

Has the Economy turned around???Take a look at that first graph. Can you say exponential curve??? I knew you could ;o)The Four Stats I look at in order to predict World Future Trends on a Political, Social Level are:

 

Real Estate (Price Trends); (# of Foreclosures); (Are Tent Cities Growing or Contracting);

Employment. (The Total of Unemployed v/s the # of Employed as below)

The Gold / Silver Ratio. (can be found at: http://www.kitco.com/market/ )

The rise or fall of Injustice ReportsTaking into consideration, that sometimes you have to dig for the correct stats (the government is not above a falsification here & there), the above can give you great insight as to decisions you might make in regards, where you live, your job, etc. All the best,Doc

24,700,000 Unemployed or Underemployed Americans: Job Losses Accelerate with 6 million unemployed over last year. Real Unemployment rate now at 15.8 Percent.

 

Posted by mybudget360 in Employment, bailout, bls, economy, government, unemployment

3 Comment

 

 

It is hard to believe what is taken as good news. 539,000 jobs were lost in April yet this was taken as a positive because it wasn’t 600,000. Forget about the fact that the revised number for March was moved upward to 699,000 from an initial 663,000. So it may be the case when the final number for April is calculated in June, we might have another 600,000 job loss month. The market is continuing on its upward surge with the S & P 500 now nearing a 40% gain in 2 months. This market volatility and surge is indicative of an unstable market. The fact of the matter is, when we total up all of the unemployed and underemployed we find that close to 24,700,000 Americans fall in this category.

 

Over the past 12 months the number of unemployed has risen by 6 million. Also, if you look at the above chart, the rate has shot up by 3.9% from 5% last April of 2008 to the current 8.9%. Yet that rate is for those that are unemployed. When we start looking at the broader measure of U-6 we see that 15.8% of people are unemployed or underemployed. Let us break down the numbers:

Unemployed: 13,700,000

Part-time but looking for full-time: 8,900,000

Marginally Attached and Discouraged Workers: 2,100,000

This brings our total to 24,700,000. That is why when we go back to the 1982 unemployment rate of 10.8%, we are even in worse shape today because how the employment numbers are calculated. Part-time workers looking for full-time work are such a big group but are considered employed by the U-3 headline number and they should not be. I think most people would say that someone working part-time at a Wal-Mart because they are trying to make ends meet does not constitute being fully employed. This is why we are seeing deflationary pressure hitting the market.

In October of 1995 the BLS revised their way of collecting data for unemployment. So if we are at 15.8% with the U-6 data, does that make our current employment situation worse than the 1980s recession? Absolutely. Take a look at this chart I found in an old article from the 1995 BLS revision report:

 

In fact, looking at U-6 data back to the early 1960s which is the best I have been able to find, we are having the worst economic recession since World War II. That is why even though the headline rate of 8.9% is much lower than the 10.8% peak of 1982, our overall unemployed and underemployed is much higher at 15.8% and that is why this recession feels a lot worse. It is a lot worse it is just the method of measuring the data has changed.

And the rise in part-time employment is somewhat troubling because of the actions taken by the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury. With the recent stress tests, it is becoming abundantly clear that the U.S. Treasury is going to pump as much taxpayer money into banks no matter what the long-term consequences. Essentially, we are going to follow the Japan approach. Now Tim Geithner would like to believe that the mistake Japan did was they stopped too soon or didn’t do enough. Yet Japan has the highest percentage of national debt load of any industrial country in the world. They spent plenty. They zombified banks and injected trillions in fiscal stimulus and the market moved lower and lower for 20 years. Yet

some point to the low employment rate. Well, the problem with this is nearly 1 out 3 people in Japan work as part-time workers…that is, they would be considered part of that U-6 data point which of course isn’t the headline number. How would you feel about being a part-time worker for the rest of your life?

Don’t believe this? The BLS had 5.2 million part-time workers categorized in April of 2008 as being part-time for economic reasons. Last month, that number surged to 8.9 million. A jump of 70 percent in one year. We almost doubled the amount of part-time workers in 12 months which is such an unsupportable pace and that is why the U-6 rate is now up to 15.8%.

I do agree that things slightly improved yet it is no reason to think the worst is behind us. We still have the FDIC gearing up to take over banks each and every Friday while their deposit insurance fund gets depleted. Be cautious for what is considered positive news.