Oh Shit

[Guest guest]

It's the "Oh Shit!" Moment on Iran

 

by Dave Lindorff

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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(This Can't

Be Happening)

-- Every horror movie has that "Oh Shit!" moment, when the hero or

heroes are huddled in some creepy hideout, and suddenly something

happens that tells you that the monster is just around the corner, or

just about to attack. In "Jurassic Park" it was the pulsing ripples in

a cup of water, heralding the arrival of a T-Rex. In "Jaws" it was the

deep base music, letting you know that a monstrous shark was about to

attack.

Well, we just got our "Oh Shit!" moment with the just-announced

resignation of Admiral William J. Fallon, the military commander of US

Middle East operations.

Adm. Fallon, 63, famously said that an attack on Iran would not

happen "on my watch," and is widely believed to have already

threatened, along with a number of other top generals and admirals, to

quit the service if the Bush administration were to launch an air

attack on Iran.

Put the pieces together. We know that the vice president is obsessed

with a desire to

attack Iran,

and has been since before he even took office. Bush has repeatedly

stressed that Iran cannot be permitted to continue with its nuclear

processing (he calls it their "nukular" bomb program, though there is

no evidence that the country has a nuclear bomb development program,

and in fact the last National Intelligence Estimate on Iran said there

was not and hadn't been since 2003). And Fallon has now quit.

The Eisenhower nuclear aircraft carrier strike force has departed

for stationing off Iran, joining forces already in place there, and

loaded to the brim with strike aircraft, Tomahawk missiles, and even

nuclear weapons. It was long ago reported that stealth bombers had been

put in place in come of the countries of the old Soviet Union north of

Iran, as well as on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

All the elements, that is to say, are in place for a massive air

assault on Iranian targets, designed to destroy its nuclear program,

cripple its military command and control, and--at least this is a

stated Cheney goal--to lead to the overthrow of the Iranian government

by its own people.

It is, of course, the strategy of madmen.

The US has no forces to send into Iran. All they can do is bomb it.

And bombing a country doesn't lead its people to rise up. It leads them

to rally 'round the flag. Especially when the civilian casualties of

our not-so-"smart" bombs start to soar.

If such an attack were to happen, we can kiss goodbye to six years

of domestic peace, such as we've had. The Iranians have considerable

capability to inflict damage on US targets of interest, both overseas

and here in the domestic US using assymetrical warfare techniques. The

worse part is, they'd be completely justified in doing so, since any

attack on them would be a crime against peace--the gravest of all

international crimes.

American troops already mired and pinned down in a war in Iraq,

would find themselves suddenly under attack by Shia forces there, who

for several years now have been largely leaving them alone.

And oil, which just bumped up against $110 a barrel, an all-time

record, will double in price overnight, as the whole Persian Gulf

becomes a war zone.

We can expect massive launches of small boats armed with missiles

and torpedoes, as well as sophisticated anti-ship missiles from shore

batteries, all fired at US ships in the Gulf, and it would be

astounding if some or even many vessels of the US fleet weren't sunk.

Meanwhile, tanker traffic in the Gulf, which accounts for 20% or

more of the world's oil, will cease as insurance rates for those

vessels goes through the roof.

The monster of war will be unleashed, and will not easily be

defeated. That's why Adm. Fallon was so opposed to the whole idea. He

knows that it will be a disaster for the US militarily, economically

and politically.

The worst part is that Cheney knows this, too. He just doesn't care.

This is the man's parting shot as he leaves office--to put the country

into the throes of a war so vicious that no one will think of pursuing

him for his long list of crimes against the nation and the Constitution.

He is guessing--and he may be right--that the American public will,

sheep-like as always, rally to the cause, with a new round of yellow

magnet "ribbons" on their cars. He is hoping--and he may be right--that

war will be a boon for the candidacy of Republican John McCain and for

embattled Republicans running for Congress.

It's a kind of political Hail Mary.

Oh Shit! Here it comes!