Paul shaping up as spoiler in GOP race

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Paul shaping up as spoiler in GOP race

 

 

 

By DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent Thu Dec 20, 5:56 PM ET

 

 

CONCORD, N.H. - It wasn't long ago that Rep. Ron Paul

was an anti-war asterisk in the race for the Republican presidential

nomination. Then his campaign raised a record $6 million in a single

day.

 

 

Now

the libertarian-leaning Texas congressman is looking like a possible

spoiler, with an eclectic, tech-savvy following and an astounding $18

million in donations raised in less than three months.

"It's sort of gotten out of control. I don't know what to do about

it," he told one audience recently in mock frustration.

At the current rate, it is some of his better known rivals who might

have cause for concern. Polls give no indication that Paul can win any

primaries or caucuses. But his appeal to independents, in particular,

could make a difference in contests in New Hampshire, which

votes on Jan. 8, or in Michigan, where a

primary is scheduled one week later.

Sen. John McCain of Arizona,

for one, hopes to appeal to independents in those states, both of which

he won when he first sought the White House eight years ago. Paul's

literature says he never voted to raise taxes, a point that could get

him a look from backers of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Other contenders who have been losing ground slowly in statewide New

Hampshire surveys — former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or

former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson,

for example — would be hard-pressed to explain it if they wind up

trailing a man who says the United States needs a more humble foreign

policy in an age of terrorism.

The attention is going to an 72-year-old physician who pursued an

interest in free-market economics and a career in politics.

Addressing a breakfast audience recently, he was as scathing in his

denunciation of President Bush's

stewardship of international relations as he was of Bush's economic

policy.

"I want the foreign policy of our Founding Fathers. No entangling

relationships," he said. That means trade with Cuba, ending penalties

against Iran and — above all —

getting U.S. troops out of Iraq.

"All this death and destruction. We blow up their bridges, we're

taxed for that. Then we're taxed to rebuild their bridges and our own

bridges are falling down," he said, drawing a connection between the

war and unmet needs in this country.

Paul's vision of the nation's economic future is not pretty. "When

empires go too far their currencies are ruined because all wars are

fought through inflation," he said. "That means the trillion-dollar

operation that we have (overseas) is coming to an end. I want to bring

it to an end gracefully, not wait for a dollar collapse."

While Paul says his critics sometimes accuse him of being a good

candidate for the 19th century, his campaign appears to be aided to an

unusual degree by the energy and enthusiasm of supporters skilled at

using the Internet to their own advantage.

He is the only candidate whose name is emblazoned on a blimp. It was

last reported over Maryland en route to New Hampshire, and has

its own Web site, which in turn contains a daily tracker, flight plan,

live video feed and blimp blog.

Because the effort says it is independent of the campaign, donations

to keep the blimp aloft are not limited by federal election law. But

the publicity it produces draws attention to Paul.

The campaign is employing more traditional tactics, as well.

Fergus Cullen, the New Hampshire Republican party chairman who is

neutral in the race, said Paul's campaign has sent more campaign mail

to households than any other organization has. Radio advertising is

heavy, although paid television advertising has been relatively modest

so far.

Current polls in New Hampshire show Paul in single digits. But

Cullen said, "I believe there is more support than public opinion polls

are picking up. I believe that he is appealing to anti-establishment

Republicans and independents, and there are a lot of them."

Independents account for about 42 percent of the electorate in the

state, and outnumber both Republicans and Democrats.

 

Cullen predicted the Texan would poll more than 10 percent — a

significant threshold because it would guarantee him at least one

delegate to the GOP nominating

convention next summer.

 

He said he doubts Paul will hurt any candidate more than another. "I

believe most of Ron Paul's supporters

would probably not participate in the primary" without him in the race,

he said.

 

Officials in other campaigns are not so sure.

 

Paul's campaign has been active in Iowa,

too, although his relative lack of an organization in that state makes

it harder to have an impact in the caucuses on Jan. 3 that mark the

campaign's first test.

 

In recent days, the campaign has purchased 30-minute blocks of

time for Sunday for a statewide appeal. Campaign mail has begun in Michigan, whose

primary is Jan. 15.

 

Paul was noncommittal when asked how he intended to spend his

surprisingly large treasury, answering only that he was getting ready

to compete in primaries in 20 states on Feb. 5.

 

Beyond the campaign's official moves, a second independent

effort involves supporters sending letters to independent voters in

Iowa as well as elsewhere. A Web site devoted to the effort claims more

than 500,000 letters sent to potential Iowa caucus-goers alone.

 

E-mails sent to two organizers drew no immediate response.

 

Jesse Benton, a campaign spokesman, said the blimp and the

letter-writing campaign were examples of spontaneous support. "We

couldn't control it if we wanted to, and we don't want to control it,"

he said.