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Swine flu could grow far deadlier, says WHO adviser

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The virus shows worrying similarities to Spanish flu, which wiped out 50 million

people in 1918

By Jonathan Owen

 

 

One of the world's leading virologists warned last night that the swine flu

virus shares worrying similarities with Spanish flu - which wiped out 50 million

people in 1918 - and that we should be prepared for the worst.

 

 

As the pandemic continues to escalate, Professor Albert Osterhaus, an adviser to

the World Health Organisation (WHO), expressed his fears that swine flu may

develop into a far deadlier strain. " In a doomsday scenario, we could have a

severe pandemic, similar to the Spanish flu, and that could arise out of a

mutation of the virus, " he said.

 

" Spanish flu also started as a relatively mild strain, comparable to the

seasonal flu virus. Then, after half a year, there was a major peak and tens of

millions of people died worldwide. " Both viruses seem to target largely healthy

adults and children, he added.

 

The global pandemic gives swine flu an opportunity to mutate into another form,

said Professor Osterhaus, head of virology at the Erasmus University Medical

Centre in Rotterdam and the man who discovered the H5N1 avian flu virus in

humans.

 

" We cannot predict what's going to happen, or how likely or unlikely it is that

we will have this scenario, but I think the precautionary principle is important

and we should be prepared for the worst, even if there's only a small chance of

it happening. We cannot rule out a repeat of a pandemic on the scale of the

Spanish flu. "

 

The warning comes just days after the WHO announced the outbreak had reached

phase six - making it the first global flu pandemic in more than 40 years. Swine

flu has now spread to 74 countries, with around 30,000 confirmed cases. It has

killed 145 people so far. Dr Margaret Chan, director-general of the WHO, warned

the world to " brace " itself for more deaths.

 

The number of confirmed cases in Britain has more than doubled over the past

week - to the current total of 1,121 - as the rate of infection accelerates: 150

new cases were confirmed yesterday - the largest daily increase to date. A

statement from the Health Protection Agency (HPA) indicated that " around the

world we are seeing an increase in cases and the same can be said for the UK. We

may well be going to see further rises. " The HPA is stepping up attempts to

track the spread of the virus by collecting data from thousands of doctors'

surgeries.

 

The Secretary of State for Health, Andy Burnham, has tried to downplay fears

over swine flu. Speaking in the Commons on Friday, he said: " This does not

fundamentally alter our approach, so people should not be alarmed. " The

Government has only enough stocks of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu to cover half

the population, and has ordered an extra 50 million doses. Health officials have

also ordered 226 million face-masks and 15.2 million courses of antibiotics.

 

Drugs companies are already racing to come up with a vaccine. GlaxoSmithKline

claims it will be ready within weeks to begin large-scale vaccine production.

Sanofi-Aventis has already started working on its own version. And, on Friday,

Novartis announced it had created an experimental vaccine made via a cell-based

technology that may prove faster than the traditional way of making vaccines,

which relies on chicken eggs.

 

 

 

 

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