OT: What's Happening In Turkey ??? (Sorta Longish)

[Guest guest]

Hi y'all,

 

I'm continuing to get 5-6 posts a day asking me how I am and what is

going down here in Turkey. I'm finer'n frog hair split three ways so

lemme reply to those who have interests beyond their own neighborhood.

This post will tell you some of what is going down here .. if you don't

like political history you oughta zap this muther right now.

 

The below is my reply to a retired US Army Officer buddy who now is a

manager of a contract in one of the Middle East countries.

 

This is my OPINION .. I have a right to that even though it would most

likely upset a lot of folks here in Turkey if they read it. That has

never been something to cause me to lose sleep .. opinions are legal ..

they can, however, get your butt in a jam in other ways. ;-p

 

----------------------

> What the heck is going on with Turkey?

 

Moderate Islamic Democracy at work. ;-p

 

> I know we no longer fly the northern No Fly Zone in Northern Iraq, but

> it is my opinion that we will be liberating Syria next after Iraq

 

I wouldn't bet on it .. I'm looking for Syria to begin back-peddling at

any minute. They've already thrown in diplomatic jibber-jabber about

supporting the people of Iraq .. not the regime of Saddam. And to me,

its more important to know WHO gave certain items to Syria to dispense

rather than the fact that a two-bit Islamic country elected to dispense

them. There's been no pretense regarding US-Syrian relations but now we

have problems with US vs the Germans, French and Russians and I would

bet a purty that one of them provided this equipment to Syria.

 

> and we need the Incirlik AB for this minor exercise.

 

Turks would NEVER permit it. And I wouldn't blame them.

 

As for what has happened, the Turks have to remind themselves what a

Strategic Relationship is and WHY they are created. What are the main

reasons America formed such a relationship with Turkey? Three reasons

come to my mind .. their strategic geographical position .. a strong and

well trained military force .. and the fact that Turkey is a democratic

country in the midst of autocracy and chaos. This tracks with America's

strategic relationship with Israel .. and Israel's with Turkey.

 

It is not impossible that the importance of Turkey could be diminished

if it were to be replaced .. that is, if America elected to operate in

another country with similar qualities .. or perhaps only two of the

above qualities .. disregarding the well trained military aspect.

 

Do I think this will happen? Nope! But I think the Turks might oughta

give it some thought because it is not an impossibility. Nothing would

make the European Union happier than to see Turkey turn away from the

USA and toward them. Not that the EU really gives a crap about Turkey,

for sure they don't .. even though they have agreed to accept them as a

candidate for EU membership, I think that will never happen because the

EU is clearly a Christian Club. In fact, if not for the efforts of the

USA pushing the EU (which they resent) Turkey would probably never have

been accepted in the first place.

 

I am a Kemalist .. proud to be one too. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk was able

to see two generations ahead of anyone else when he demanded the TOTAL

separation of religion and state. I am opposed to any political party

that associates itself with any religion or any government policy made

based on religious grounds. We find the Christian Democrats strong in

many European countries .. and now, here in Turkey we have a so-called

moderate Moslem Party in control.

 

> This decision by Turkey to deny us access will cost them dearly in

> outright grants from the US, future Loan Guarantees and any influence

> with the US Congress in the future.

 

I agree to a point .. it will be more difficult for the President and

Secretaries of Defense and State to work on the individual congress men

and women .. but they will continue to try. Of course, the US Congress

will react as they think their constituents want them to react. Turkey

as Turkey has not changed their attitude toward the USA .. nor can I

imagine it ever happening .. but the present government, the AK Party,

has made a few bad calls methinks .. and it won't be forgotten easily.

 

AK Party is inexperienced and lacks imagination or understanding of what

international relations is all about. When they acted they had things

in mind that were totally domestic .. pleasing the public even though it

should have been obvious to the casual observer that the real will of

the public had not been polled because the public had not been given all

the facts, feathering the treasury nest because they knew that the war

would create further economic hardships that were not Turkey's fault or

of their choosing, and laying the groundwork for a Pan Turkic powerbase.

 

Their position was not unique .. we've not experienced a far-seeing

party in Turkey in over 25 years .. the political parties rarely look

beyond their short term role and their main goals are to ensure they

upset the plans of other parties and make themselves look good .. today.

Short-term planning has caused most of the economic problems in Turkey.

 

The initial discussion on how much they would receive for support were

under cover .. then they became public knowledge. This was bad strategy

from an international point but good for AK Party from a domestic point

of view. They played against the folks on the street and those folks

played against the party. IF the money had been accepted it would have

been after the people were convinced that it was in the best interests

of the country .. if it was rejected, AK Party could get the credit for

sticking to their ethical and moral values and telling the USA to get

bent. But it all backfired on them. Now, Turks are upset because the

economic conditions have further deteriorated and we still have a war ..

a war that Turkey might yet have to assist in. And there's NO HOPE for

things to get better without assistance from the US. What they are

forced to accept is they can't have it both ways. Sometimes we have to

choose the best from a host of less than desireable options.

 

This 80% - 90% of Turks who oppose the war are concealing themselves

well .. I can't find them. I expect that its possible that 80% - 90% of

the sheep and professional protestors might be against the war .. any

charismatic person with a loud voice and enough funds to rent busses can

get a group together to protest anything .. and the protestors don't

even have to be against what they are protesting. Some folks just like

the idea of losing their identity in a crowd and being able to vent the

frustrations they have built up from life in general by destroying in

the name of peace .. by creating chaos in displays of civil disobedience

without having to own responsibility for their personal actions.

 

I challenge anyone to get 80% - 90% of any group of people, be they

Turks or Americans .. to think in a like manner. Those I know, the

educated folks I associate with routinely are NOT against the war .. NOT

against the granting of America's desires from Turkey .. in fact, they

are angry and shocked that Turkey could have refused us. They too are

not buying this 80% - 90% anti-war attitude and the fact that not even

one scientific poll was conducted is even more proof that its BS.

 

Cem Uzan .. who I am told is a fugitive from justice in the UK and now

under indictment for fraud in the USA .. managed to purchase the Genc

(Youth) Party and in the last elections they didn't get their foot in

the door. However, when one is a multi-millionaire and seeking fame one

has sufficient assets to drive on .. as he did. He hired professional

agitators (I am told) and spent millions and millions of USD (which I

know to be a fact) to provide 24 hour anti-war media propaganda to the

sheep .. and weekly we saw reports on his stations that the percentage

of Turks were against the war was increasing. Underestimation of the

power of media is typical of rookies .. and most Americans are taken in

by this too. Freedom of the press is important but along with freedom

comes responsibility .. responsibility is not found in Turkish media.

 

Take old Mustafa who is sitting in his shack wondering if the soup bone

is gonna stretch into one more soup meal .. his knowledge of politics

and international events is about the same level as his knowledge of

brain surgery. But tell ol' Mustafa that war is gonna cause even worse

economic conditions .. which is a typical political method of diverting

attention from the REAL causes of problems we've had for the past 25

years .. and you just got yourself a supporter. Moreso, Ali is sitting

around not giving any of it much thought .. he knows his soup bone is

gonna stretch but all of a sudden his buddies ask him where he stands on

the issue and Ali, mayhaps not giving a crap in the first place, has to

take a stand. He is told that now 80% of the folks are anti-war .. so

Ali decides he must be some kinda weirdo as he has yet to decide .. best

it is to take a gregarious approach and join the other sheep .. follow

the shepherd regardless of where he is gonna take us .. at least he'll

be amongst friends.

 

The military connection to this is simple .. the present Chief of the

General Staff marches to the beat of a different drum than did those

before him. He (like all Turkish professional military personnel) will

always put the best interests of his country before all else .. they are

(in my opinion) the only honest brokers in Turkey .. but at the same

time, he has tried his best to give the European Union the impression

that the Turkish Military has backed out of politics. I believe that

the military was as shocked as anyone else when a large number of the AK

Party legislators decided to abandon the party position in the first

vote. I believe the military would have made their preferences known if

they had dreamed such a thing could happen.

 

After that vote, they did voice an opinion and it appeared for a while

that the actions would be reversed based on that opinion .. but then the

issue of Turkish troops crossing into Northern Iraq became a sticky

wicket and attention was then focused in that direction .. that became

the major point of bargaining and sorta upset the General Staff.

 

> What will happen at Incirlik once we move the planes out? They

> have been there for 20-30 years.

 

Methinks this is a temporary thing. I am sure they'll be back .. in

fact, I would not give odds that we won't YET use Incirlik in some

regard in support of operations in Iraq.

 

> It was also my understanding that we off loaded a lot of military

> equipment at Iskendurum Port for deployment into Northern Iraq with

> the 4th Infantry Division. Did we load it back onto ships and then

> move it to Kuwair by through the canal?

 

Much of that equipment went overland to the Iraqi border .. transported

on Turkish heavy haul vehicles .. that portion that was needed in close

proximity to the 4th ID accompanied it via sea.

 

Neither Turkey nor the US is gonna throw the baby out with the bath

water .. but its true that AK Party's decisions have done more to

destablize American-Turkish relations than any other government in

recent history .. and I think they realize that now. Today, Colin

Powell will test the waters to see which way the government wants to go

TODAY .. long-term planning is in short supply in Turkey .. so Secretary

Powell has to walk slowly for the time being.

 

It is reported that Prime Minister Erdogan is considering going out to

the Turkish public and asking them to make donations to pay immediate

domestic debt. If its true, that's gonna go over like a turd in a punch

bowl and its a point that I'm sure will not be lost on some of the more

enlightened members of AK Party .. and the Turkish General Staff. Stay

tuned to see if Erdogan is trying to use reverse psychology on the sheep

or if he is assuming that nationalism will be more important to Mustafa

and Ali than their pocketbooks. If I had to make a bet, I would go with

the reverse psychology point.

 

Turkey can't be criticized for exercising democracy .. they've shown by

the departure of some legislators from the party line that it can work

in Turkey. They can be criticized for taking a short-term approach to

issues that have a long-term impact on the welfare of the country .. but

not much more could be expected from an inexperienced government. Their

agenda was yet to be made clear with regard to how they intended to

assist Turkey even before the war and its far more muddy now .. they're

forced into crisis management now and that can be a point to justify

failure in the future .. weren't for the war we woulda got it right.

 

Told my buddies last night at the Bar .. lately, I only drink with Turks

and some Brits and Kurds, an occasional Iranian or Iraqi and not with

the Americans, Germans and Russians I used to occasionally hang out with

because more often than not they are knuckleheads with no understanding

of what is really going down in the world and I'm not about to take the

time to teach them unless they want to pay my consulting fees. ;-p

I've NEVER associated with the French here .. they are impossible to get

along with for more than five minutes.

 

Anyway, I told my Turkish buddies that Turkish folks remember all the

great things Ataturk did .. but they either never knew or they forgot

WHY he did it. That WHY is just as important as the what and we can see

the WHY if we look off to the East .. in your direction, and we can see

that WHY if we look real closely at what's happening now here in Turkey.

 

Will things patch themselves up? American-Turkish relations will not

fall through the crack though trust and confidence has been lost and

will remain so as long as the present government is in power. This

should be no surprise to anyone. Politicos and diplomats will continue

to praise Turkey as a staunch ally but in the hallowed halls of power in

Washington, folks are still in shock .. still upset .. some probably

want to show the Turks the error of their ways because it is not nice to

refuse one who has NEVER refused you .. but they won't do it. Nor is

there a need to do it because the Turkish government and the public will

learn this without instruction. I hear that Bush is boiling inside and

he is not one to easily forget a slight .. still, personalities can't

play a large role in development and maintainence of international

relations .. unless that personality conflict involves Saddam. ;-p

 

Bottom line .. entering into a strategic relationship with another

country is not unlike entering into a marriage. One expects their

partner to be beside them .. right or wrong .. and assuming all will

remain well regardless of your behavior toward your partner is taking

them for granted .. likely to backfire on you. Not saying this is the

way it should be but in fact, its the way most folks see it.

 

Loss of trust is difficult to deal with in strategic partnerships .. as

it is in marriages. This doesn't mean the relationship will fail but it

means that it will take a lotta time and effort to bring it back to an

acceptable level and it might never return to the idealistic level it

once was. One can forgive much easier than one can forget.

 

America and Turkey are not going to get a divorce .. but they might not

hold each other as closely as they did before until the present gummit

goes along the wayside .. which I believe will happen after the next

elections.

 

Turkey and Turks are maturing in this regard .. they are learning from

good and bad experiences some of the lessons of international relations

and the need to plan ahead. Though I am surprised and perhaps even a

bit upset with what has gone down here, I still feel a certain amount of

pride in Turkey's move toward independence from foreign influence .. as

I did when my son wanted to break from my influence shortly after his

graduation from high school. But just as he learned, Turkey will learn

that if one wants to be totally independent then they have to be able to

take care of themselves without aid from those to whom they now depend

on. And they will also learn that independence can never be TOTAL as we

all need trading partners, allies and friends when it comes to playing

games in the international arena .. in NATO, the UN (if it survives), in

the EU (if it survives) and in any other international body that might

be created after the present actions are concluded. If one want to be

stubborn they have to be powerful .. or they will sit out many dances.

If one wants to be an island, they will become a dinasaur. If one wants

to influence other countries they must direct part of their planning to

developing strategic and economic partnerships but without disregarding

their domestic needs and responsibilities.

 

And finally, if a government is going to take actions based on their

perception of the will of the people, they need to get a good handle on

the real will of the people .. and they need to get all the facts out to

the public in order for them to develop a credible opinion or desire.

And they must understand that policy cannot and should not be based on

the howling and marching of a bunch of folks not yet two years out of

high school who still have pimples on their faces, daddy's money in

their pockets and idealism in their hearts.

 

Those young knuckleheads will do a complete turn around when they are

forced to accept responsible positions in society. If a government

makes policy based on young voices they will soon find themselves out of

step with the will of the people who vote them in or out.

-----------------------

 

Y'all keep smiling, Butch http://www.AV-AT.com

[Guest guest]

Hey Butch,

 

>how I am and what is going down here in Turkey.

I'm finer'n frog hair split three ways >so lemme

reply to those who have interests >beyond their

own neighborhood.

 

I am really glad that you are " finer'n frog hair

split three ways "

 

 

>

> > I know we no longer fly the northern No Fly

> Zone in Northern Iraq, but

> > it is my opinion that we will be liberating

> Syria next after Iraq

>

> I wouldn't bet on it .. I'm looking for Syria

> to begin back-peddling at

> any minute. They've already thrown in

> diplomatic jibber-jabber about

> supporting the people of Iraq .. not the regime

> of Saddam. And to me,

> its more important to know WHO gave certain

> items to Syria to dispense

> rather than the fact that a two-bit Islamic

> country elected to dispense

> them.

 

Agreed fully with this because there are a lot

bigger fish to fry than Syria. Who supplied them

is definitely one of them.

 

 

>

> I am a Kemalist .. proud to be one too.

> Mustafa Kemal Ataturk was able to see two

>generations ahead of anyone else when he

>demanded the TOTAL separation of religion and

>state. I am opposed to any political party

> that associates itself with any religion or any

> government policy made based on religious

>grounds. We find the Christian Democrats

>strong in many European countries .. and now,

>here in Turkey we have a so-called moderate

>Moslem Party in control.

 

Paul and I agree fully here too, Religion has no

place at all among Politics .... period!

>

> imagine it ever happening .. but the present

> government, the AK Party,

> has made a few bad calls methinks .. and it

> won't be forgotten easily.

>

> AK Party is inexperienced and lacks imagination

> or understanding of what international

>relations is all about.

 

I know this party was recently elected. How long

before the next elections? Plus this party will

learn by its mistakes as many do (with the

exceptions of tyrants like Saddam).

 

>laying the groundwork for a Pan Turkic

powerbase.

 

What does " Pan Turkic " mean?

 

Thanks Butch, for the update. Paul and I both

really enjoy reading your posts. Please stay

safe. You are part of the family and our

thoughts and prayers are with you on a daily

basis.

 

Hugs,

 

Cheryl

 

 

=====

Cheryl Smith

A Heavenly Body

204 Muldoon Road

Anchorage AK 99504

 

 

 

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