Fwd: [graffis-l]FOOD CRISES WILL TAKE HOLD BEFORE CLIMATE CHANGE!

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>Food Crisis Will Take Hold Before Climate Change, Warns Chief Scient

>Posted by: " Mark Graffis " mgraffis mgraffis

>Fri Mar 7, 2008 5:01 pm (PST)

>http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/03/07/7538/

>

>Published on Friday, March 7, 2008 by The Guardian/UK

>Food Crisis Will Take Hold Before Climate Change, Warns Chief Scientist

>· Pressures from population growth and affluence

>· ‘Profoundly stupid’ to cut down forests for biofuels

>

>by James Randerson

>Food security and the rapid rise in food prices make up the “elephant in

>the room” that politicians must face up to quickly, according to the

>government’s new chief scientific adviser.

>

>In his first major speech since taking over, Professor John Beddington

>said the global rush to grow biofuels was compounding the problem, and

>cutting down rainforest to produce biofuel crops was “profoundly stupid”.

>

>He told the Govnet Sustainable Development UK Conference in Westminster:

>“There is progress on climate change. But out there is another major

>problem. It is very hard to imagine how we can see a world growing enough

>crops to produce renewable energy and at the same time meet the enormous

>increase in the demand for food which is quite properly going to happen as

>we alleviate poverty.”

>

>He predicted that price rises in staples such as rice, maize and wheat

>would continue because of increased demand caused by population growth and

>increasing wealth in developing nations. He also said that climate change

>would lead to pressure on food supplies because of decreased rainfall in

>many areas and crop failures related to climate. “The agriculture industry

>needs to double its food production, using less water than today,” he

>said. The food crisis would bite more quickly than climate change, he added.

>

>But he reserved some of his most scathing comments for the biofuel

>industry, which he said had delivered a “major shock” to world food

>prices. “In terms of biofuels there has been, quite properly, a reaction

>against it,” he said. “There are real problems with unsustainability.”

>

>Biofuel production is due to increase hugely in the next 15 years. The US

>plans to produce 30bn gallons of biofuels by 2022 - which will mean

>trebling maize production. The EU has a target for biofuels to make up

>5.75% of transport fuels by 2010.

>

>But Beddington said it was vital that biofuels were grown sustainably.

>“Some of the biofuels are hopeless. The idea that you cut down rainforest

>to actually grow biofuels seems profoundly stupid.”

>

>Before taking over the chief scientist post from Sir David King nine weeks

>ago, Beddington was professor of applied population biology at Imperial

>College London. He is an expert on the sustainable use of renewable resources.

>

>Hilary Benn, the environment secretary, said at the conference that the

>world’s population was expected to grow from 6.2bn today to 9.5bn in less

>than 50 years’ time. “How are we going to feed everybody?” he asked.

>

>Beddington said that in the short term, development and increasing wealth

>would add to the food crisis. “Once you move to [an income of] between £1

>a day and £5 a day you get an increase in demand for meat and dairy

>products … and that generates a demand for additional grain.” Above £5 a

>day, people begin to demand processed and packaged food, which entails

>greater energy use. About 2.7bn people in the world live on less than £1 a day.

>

>There would also be increases at the higher end of the wage scale, he

>said. At present there are 350m households on £8,000 a year. That is

>projected to increase to 2.1bn by 2030. “It’s tremendous good news. You

>are seeing a genuine prediction from the World Bank that poverty

>alleviation is actually working.”

>

>But he cautioned that the increased purchasing power would lead to greater

>pressure on food supplies. Global grain stores are currently at the lowest

>levels ever, just 40 days from running out. “I am only nine weeks into the

>job, so don’t yet have all the answers, but it is clear that science and

>research to increase the efficiency of agricultural production per unit of

>land is critical.”

>

>© 2008 The Guardian

 

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