OT: The Saudi Push for an Iraq Coup

[Guest guest]

Hi y'all,

 

The title of this should be .. " Rats Desert a Sinking Ship. " We can see

how much loyalty there is amongst Arab leaders .. especially the Saudis

who are probably thinking they will be next .. and they should be cause

they're the biggest supporters of terrorists around .. as well as being

the major exporters of Islamic Fundamentalism .. of Wahabiism.

 

I reckon soon they will propose a way to get rid of sorry butt Arafat.

For sure he is useless as tits on a boar hawg as a leader now and can't

control the Palestinian terrorists .. probably doesn't want to. Can't

say Sharon is much better but not much folks can do about that.

 

I think the article below overlooks one important thing .. I think the

Saudis are also afraid of the TYPE of regime the USA would demand when

the present leaders of Iraq are disposed. I think that regime would be

one based on Kemalism .. the principles established by Mustafa Kemal

Ataturk when he created the secular Republic of Turkey from the ashes of

the Islamic Ottoman Empire. The Saudis know that the House of Saud

cannot stand if the principles of Islamic law and order are cast aside

and replaced by independent, secular and democratic principles in a

Moslem .. but not an Islamic environment. Butch

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TIME Exclusive: Arab leaders hope to head off a war with a plan to

facilitate Saddam's overthrow by his own generals

 

By SCOTT MACLEOD/RIYADH

 

Thursday, Jan. 16, 2003

 

Convinced that President Bush is serious about invading Iraq, Arab

leaders hope to avoid war by orchestrating a coup in Baghdad.

Well-placed sources have told TIME that Saudi Arabia is vigorously

pursuing a concrete plan to encourage Iraqi generals to overthrow Saddam

and his clique. Western and Arab diplomats say the Saudi proposal

requires a UN Security Council resolution declaring amnesty for the vast

majority of Iraqi officials if they orchestrate a transition of power in

Baghdad. Such an amnesty would extend to all but 100 to 120 of the most

senior Baath Party officials, including Saddam, his sons, close

relatives and others who have long formed part of the ruling circle. It

would be offered immediately prior to the outbreak of war as a signal to

Saddam's generals that the time had arrived to save their own skins with

a U.N.-guaranteed amnesty. And, the Saudis believe, it could well bring

the traditionally coup-proof dictator tumbling down.

 

" If there is amnesty for the rest of the government, Saddam will be

checkmated, " says one diplomat with knowledge of the initiative. To

satisfy international demands for Iraq's disarmament, the proposed

amnesty would be made conditional on full and active cooperation in

implementing UN resolutions on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.

 

Although the Saudi proposal leaves open the possibility that Saddam

could accept exile, Arab diplomats doubt this is a realistic scenario.

Instead, they believe that Iraq's Republican Guards, the best-equipped

and most loyal of Saddam's troops, will eventually switch allegiances

and do him in.

 

Western and Arab diplomats say that Saudi Arabia is actively canvassing

support for the initiative among regional players and Security Council

members. This week, President Hosni Mubarak and Turkish Prime Minister

Abdullah Gul flew into Riyadh to discuss the plan with Saudi Arabia's de

facto ruler, Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. Without

confirming the details of the initiative, Abdullah told reporters that

he believed war would be avoided. Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al Faisal

also refused to comment on the initiative, saying only that Arab states

want a final opportunity to seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis

before the first shot was fired. " The concept is if you have a decision

by the UN to go to war, give a chance for diplomacy to work before you

go to war, " Prince Saud told TIME.

 

The initiative marks a major turnabout for the Saudis. While the

official position is still against regime change in Baghdad, the new

initiative amounts to a knife in Saddam's back. And what finally pushed

the notoriously cautious Saudis into action is the recognition that with

tens of thousands of addition American troops headed for the Gulf, the

Bush Administration really is ready to go to war.

 

The concern that has spurred the Saudis to move against Saddam is the

same one that led them to tolerate his continued rule even after he

invaded Kuwait — stability. Riyadh fears that war in Iraq could lead to

chaos, civil war among ethnic factions and military incursions by

neighbors like Turkey and Iran. They see a coup as offering a better

chance of maintaining order and preserving state institutions necessary

for providing public services such as security, health care, electricity

and water. " They are trying to stage manage the removal of Saddam, " says

a Western diplomat. " The level of Arab anxiety about the war is sky

high. "

 

The Saudi initiative envisions a reformed Iraqi regime including some

faces from among the exile community but composed mainly of the remnants

of the outgoing system. " What does 'a change of regime' mean, " says an

Arab diplomat. " Getting rid of the Baath Party, the Revolutionary

Guards, the governors and the police forces? Or is it Saddam Hussein? If

it is Saddam Hussein, then the best way to deal with the problem is for

Saddam to be targeted with his clique, but leave the administration as

it is and divide him from his backup. If the Security Council tells the

Iraqis to stay in their positions, that nobody is against the Iraqi

people, that divides him from his support. "

 

Arab leaders, say diplomats, are also motivated by a fear that the U.S.

may lack the stomach for nation-building in a turbulent post-Saddam

Iraq. Arab leaders have no faith in the exiled Iraqi opposition, and

fear that the horse-trading necessary to build a new regime from scratch

would create a system too fragile to survive. " If things go wrong, the

troops will get back on their ships and leave, " says an Arab diplomat.

" We in the region will be left with the consequences. It will be a

never-ending story. "

 

Arab diplomats are expecting resistance from the Bush Administration,

which could have reason to fear that the Saudi initiative is little more

than an Arab tactic to buy Saddam more time. Some Western diplomats in

the region, however, believe the initiative may dovetail with U.S.

thinking. " Politically, there would be nothing better for President Bush

than to remove Saddam and disarm Iraq without firing a shot, " says a

Western diplomat. " All along, Washington's hope has been that as

pressure gets high enough, the people around Saddam will take matters

into their own hands. "

 

Despite Saddam's success in averting a number of previous coup attempts,

proponents of the Saudi plan believe things will be different when the

signal is sent to Iraqi generals that the time to act is truly now or

never. " What makes them collect around him? " asks an Arab diplomat.

" They feel that their fate is tied with his. You'd be surprised how

quickly Iraqi loyalties can change. " The same holds true, it seems, for

the fidelities of Saddam's fellow Arab leaders.