[graffis-l] WAR HAS HISTORICAL TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

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War has historic links to global climate

change

 

 

Posted by: " Mark Graffis "

mgraffis

mgraffis

 

 

Wed Nov 21, 2007 5:02 am (PST)

 

 

http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn12936-war-has-historic-links-to-global-climate-change.html

War has historic links to global climate change

a.. 22:00 19 November 2007 b.. NewScientist.com news service c.. Catherine Brahic Climate change and conflict have gone hand-in-hand for the past 500

years, a study reveals.

It is the first time that a clear link between war and changing

global temperatures has been identified in historical data, according to

the researchers involved. The results are also significant because some

experts predict that current and future climate change may result in

widespread global unrest and conflict.

Most recently, the secretary general of the United Nations, Ban Ki-

Moon, wrote in an article published in The Washington Post that the

on-going conflict in Darfur, Sudan was " a conflict that grew at

least in part from desertification, ecological degradation, and a

scarcity of resources " .

Other experts are concerned that rising sea levels will create a new

type of refugee – referred to as the " climate refugee " – by

displacing millions of people who currently live in low-lying coastal

regions.

A recent study linked climate change to 1000 years of conflict in

China, but until now, few studies have looked at whether long-term

climate change in the past has been accompanied by increased conflict on

a global scale.

Violent conflict

" Our basic model is that deviations in temperature can hamper

crop production, " says Peter Brecke of the Georgia Institute of

Technology in Atlanta, US. This, in turn, has three effects: increasing

food prices, a greater risk of death from starvation, and increased

social tension, which leads to violent conflict.

Brecke and colleagues in Hong Kong, China, and the UK scanned

worldwide historical records on food prices, population levels and

conflicts and compared this data with long-term temperature records. The

data extended as far back as 1400.

" We found that anecdotes [of climate changes leading to

conflict] seem to fit a broader pattern, " says Brecke.

Most notably, Brecke and his team noticed a relatively peaceful

period between the early 1700s and the early 1800s, compared to the

previous 250 years. They first noticed the pattern in Europe, then found

that it held true in China as well.

The 100 year period came just before the end of Little Ice Age, which

lasted from 1450 to the late 1800s. When the researchers looked at

temperature records, they found that it corresponded to a short term

100-year warming period.

Food shortages

Brecke acknowledges that temperature is not the only factor that

causes wars, but believes it can exacerbate the conditions. The

researchers believe that cooler temperatures during the Little Ice Age

caused a drop in crop yields which exacerbated conflicts.

The 100-year warming period would have briefly relieved social

tensions, he says. But, from the early to mid-1800s, temperatures dropped

again, and conflicts resumed.

Although the world is now predicted to get warmer, not cooler, the

researchers point out that forecasts suggest global warming will lead to

long-term food shortages much as cooling did during the Little Ice Age,

by disrupting global water cycles.

" Modern societies have more mechanisms to cope with these

problems, " says Brecke. But he cautions that the mechanisms may fail

if society is forced to cope with a whole slew of environmental problems

at the same time, as is predicted by several major environmental

reports.

" If other problems emerge that impede our ability to address

[food shortages] we may well see warfare erupt, and it should not be that

big a surprise, " he told New Scientist.

Journal reference: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

(DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0707304104)

Climate Change – Want to know more about global warming: the science,

impacts and political debate? Visit our continually updated ngAt 08:17 AM 11/21/07, you wrote:

War has historic links to global

climate change

Posted by: " Mark Graffis " mgraffis

mgraffis

Wed Nov 21, 2007 5:02 am (PST)

http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn12936-war-has-historic-links-to-global-climate-change.html

War has historic links to global climate change

a.. 22:00 19 November 2007

b.. NewScientist.com news service

c.. Catherine Brahic

Climate change and conflict have gone hand-in-hand for the past 500

years, a study reveals.

It is the first time that a clear link between war and changing global

temperatures has been identified in historical data, according to the

researchers involved. The results are also significant because some

experts predict that current and future climate change may result in

widespread global unrest and conflict.

Most recently, the secretary general of the United Nations, Ban Ki- Moon,

wrote in an article published in The Washington Post that the on-going

conflict in Darfur, Sudan was " a conflict that grew at least in part

from desertification, ecological degradation, and a scarcity of

resources " .

Other experts are concerned that rising sea levels will create a new type

of refugee ­ referred to as the " climate refugee " ­ by

displacing millions of people who currently live in low-lying coastal

regions.

A recent study linked climate change to 1000 years of conflict in China,

but until now, few studies have looked at whether long-term climate

change in the past has been accompanied by increased conflict on a global

scale.

Violent conflict

" Our basic model is that deviations in temperature can hamper crop

production, " says Peter Brecke of the Georgia Institute of

Technology in Atlanta, US. This, in turn, has three effects: increasing

food prices, a greater risk of death from starvation, and increased

social tension, which leads to violent conflict.

Brecke and colleagues in Hong Kong, China, and the UK scanned worldwide

historical records on food prices, population levels and conflicts and

compared this data with long-term temperature records. The data extended

as far back as 1400.

" We found that anecdotes [of climate changes leading to conflict]

seem to fit a broader pattern, " says Brecke.

Most notably, Brecke and his team noticed a relatively peaceful period

between the early 1700s and the early 1800s, compared to the previous 250

years. They first noticed the pattern in Europe, then found that it held

true in China as well.

The 100 year period came just before the end of Little Ice Age, which

lasted from 1450 to the late 1800s. When the researchers looked at

temperature records, they found that it corresponded to a short term

100-year warming period.

Food shortages

Brecke acknowledges that temperature is not the only factor that causes

wars, but believes it can exacerbate the conditions. The researchers

believe that cooler temperatures during the Little Ice Age caused a drop

in crop yields which exacerbated conflicts.

The 100-year warming period would have briefly relieved social tensions,

he says. But, from the early to mid-1800s, temperatures dropped again,

and conflicts resumed.

Although the world is now predicted to get warmer, not cooler, the

researchers point out that forecasts suggest global warming will lead to

long-term food shortages much as cooling did during the Little Ice Age,

by disrupting global water cycles.

" Modern societies have more mechanisms to cope with these

problems, " says Brecke. But he cautions that the mechanisms may fail

if society is forced to cope with a whole slew of environmental problems

at the same time, as is predicted by several major environmental

reports.

" If other problems emerge that impede our ability to address [food

shortages] we may well see warfare erupt, and it should not be that big a

surprise, " he told New Scientist.

Journal reference: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (DOI:

10.1073/pnas.0707304104)

Climate Change ­ Want to know more about global warming: the science,

impacts and political debate? Visit our continually updated

 

 

******

Kraig and Shirley Carroll ... in the woods of SE Kentucky

http://www.thehavens.com/

thehavens

606-376-3363

 

 

 

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Here so far the climate change have been a blessing, Fine sunny

weather, no storms...a lot of rain....

 

>

>

War has historic links to global climate change

>

>

> Posted by: " Mark Graffis " mgraffis   mgraffis

>

>

> Wed Nov 21, 2007 5:02 am (PST)

>

> http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn12936-war-has-historic-

> links-to-global-climate-change.html

> War has historic links to global climate change

> a.. 22:00 19 November 2007

> b.. NewScientist.com news service

> c.. Catherine Brahic

> Climate change and conflict have gone hand-in-hand for the past 500

> years, a study reveals.

> It is the first time that a clear link between war and changing global

> temperatures has been identified in historical data, according to the

> researchers involved. The results are also significant because some

> experts predict that current and future climate change may result in

> widespread global unrest and conflict.

> Most recently, the secretary general of the United Nations, Ban Ki-

> Moon, wrote in an article published in The Washington Post that the

> on-going conflict in Darfur, Sudan was " a conflict that grew at least

> in part from desertification, ecological degradation, and a scarcity

> of resources " .

> Other experts are concerned that rising sea levels will create a new

> type of refugee – referred to as the " climate refugee " – by displacing

> millions of people who currently live in low-lying coastal regions.

> A recent study linked climate change to 1000 years of conflict in

> China, but until now, few studies have looked at whether long-term

> climate change in the past has been accompanied by increased conflict

> on a global scale.

> Violent conflict

> " Our basic model is that deviations in temperature can hamper crop

> production, " says Peter Brecke of the Georgia Institute of Technology

> in Atlanta, US. This, in turn, has three effects: increasing food

> prices, a greater risk of death from starvation, and increased social

> tension, which leads to violent conflict.

>

> Brecke and colleagues in Hong Kong, China, and the UK scanned

> worldwide historical records on food prices, population levels and

> conflicts and compared this data with long-term temperature records.

> The data extended as far back as 1400.

> " We found that anecdotes [of climate changes leading to conflict] seem

> to fit a broader pattern, " says Brecke.

> Most notably, Brecke and his team noticed a relatively peaceful period

> between the early 1700s and the early 1800s, compared to the previous

> 250 years. They first noticed the pattern in Europe, then found that

> it held true in China as well.

> The 100 year period came just before the end of Little Ice Age, which

> lasted from 1450 to the late 1800s. When the researchers looked at

> temperature records, they found that it corresponded to a short term

> 100-year warming period.

> Food shortages

> Brecke acknowledges that temperature is not the only factor that

> causes wars, but believes it can exacerbate the conditions. The

> researchers believe that cooler temperatures during the Little Ice Age

> caused a drop in crop yields which exacerbated conflicts.

>

> The 100-year warming period would have briefly relieved social

> tensions, he says. But, from the early to mid-1800s, temperatures

> dropped again, and conflicts resumed.

> Although the world is now predicted to get warmer, not cooler, the

> researchers point out that forecasts suggest global warming will lead

> to long-term food shortages much as cooling did during the Little Ice

> Age, by disrupting global water cycles.

> " Modern societies have more mechanisms to cope with these problems, "

> says Brecke. But he cautions that the mechanisms may fail if society

> is forced to cope with a whole slew of environmental problems at the

> same time, as is predicted by several major environmental reports.

> " If other problems emerge that impede our ability to address [food

> shortages] we may well see warfare erupt, and it should not be that

> big a surprise, " he told New Scientist.

> Journal reference: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

> (DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0707304104)

> Climate Change – Want to know more about global warming: the science,

> impacts and political debate? Visit our continually updated

>

> ngAt 08:17 AM 11/21/07, you wrote:

>

> War has historic links to global climate change

> Posted by: " Mark Graffis " mgraffis   mgraffis

> Wed Nov 21, 2007 5:02 am (PST)

>

> http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn12936-war-has-historic-

> links-to-global-climate-change.html

> War has historic links to global climate change

> a.. 22:00 19 November 2007

> b.. NewScientist.com news service

> c.. Catherine Brahic

> Climate change and conflict have gone hand-in-hand for the past 500

> years, a study reveals.

> It is the first time that a clear link between war and changing global

> temperatures has been identified in historical data, according to the

> researchers involved. The results are also significant because some

> experts predict that current and future climate change may result in

> widespread global unrest and conflict.

>

> Most recently, the secretary general of the United Nations, Ban Ki-

> Moon, wrote in an article published in The Washington Post that the

> on-going conflict in Darfur, Sudan was " a conflict that grew at least

> in part from desertification, ecological degradation, and a scarcity

> of resources " .

>

> Other experts are concerned that rising sea levels will create a new

> type of refugee ­ referred to as the " climate refugee " ­ by displacing

> millions of people who currently live in low-lying coastal regions.

>

> A recent study linked climate change to 1000 years of conflict in

> China, but until now, few studies have looked at whether long-term

> climate change in the past has been accompanied by increased conflict

> on a global scale.

>

> Violent conflict

> " Our basic model is that deviations in temperature can hamper crop

> production, " says Peter Brecke of the Georgia Institute of Technology

> in Atlanta, US. This, in turn, has three effects: increasing food

> prices, a greater risk of death from starvation, and increased social

> tension, which leads to violent conflict.

>

> Brecke and colleagues in Hong Kong, China, and the UK scanned

> worldwide historical records on food prices, population levels and

> conflicts and compared this data with long-term temperature records.

> The data extended as far back as 1400.

>

> " We found that anecdotes [of climate changes leading to conflict] seem

> to fit a broader pattern, " says Brecke.

>

> Most notably, Brecke and his team noticed a relatively peaceful period

> between the early 1700s and the early 1800s, compared to the previous

> 250 years. They first noticed the pattern in Europe, then found that

> it held true in China as well.

>

> The 100 year period came just before the end of Little Ice Age, which

> lasted from 1450 to the late 1800s. When the researchers looked at

> temperature records, they found that it corresponded to a short term

> 100-year warming period.

>

> Food shortages

> Brecke acknowledges that temperature is not the only factor that

> causes wars, but believes it can exacerbate the conditions. The

> researchers believe that cooler temperatures during the Little Ice Age

> caused a drop in crop yields which exacerbated conflicts.

>

> The 100-year warming period would have briefly relieved social

> tensions, he says. But, from the early to mid-1800s, temperatures

> dropped again, and conflicts resumed.

>

> Although the world is now predicted to get warmer, not cooler, the

> researchers point out that forecasts suggest global warming will lead

> to long-term food shortages much as cooling did during the Little Ice

> Age, by disrupting global water cycles.

>

> " Modern societies have more mechanisms to cope with these problems, "

> says Brecke. But he cautions that the mechanisms may fail if society

> is forced to cope with a whole slew of environmental problems at the

> same time, as is predicted by several major environmental reports.

>

> " If other problems emerge that impede our ability to address [food

> shortages] we may well see warfare erupt, and it should not be that

> big a surprise, " he told New Scientist.

>

> Journal reference: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

> (DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0707304104)

>

> Climate Change ­ Want to know more about global warming: the science,

> impacts and political debate? Visit our continually updated

>

>

> ******

> Kraig and Shirley Carroll ... in the woods of SE Kentucky

> http://www.thehavens.com/

> thehavens

> 606-376-3363

>

>

> ---

> Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.

> Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).

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