Guest guest Posted November 6, 2007 Report Share Posted November 6, 2007 ALL PEAKED OUT AND NO PLACE ELSE TO GO BUT DO-O-O-W-N Posted by: " Mark Graffis " mgraffis mgraffis Mon Nov 5, 2007 11:37 am (PST) http://www.thisisnorthscotland.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=149212 & command=displayContent & sourceNode=150624 & contentPK=18877983 & folderPk=85744 & pNodeId=150607 ALL PEAKED OUT AND NO PLACE ELSE TO GO BUT DO-O-O-W-N Date : 05.11.07 " PEAK oil is now " , proclaims a hard-hitting study of global resources by the German-based Energy Watch Group. Its predictions are dire: global oil output peaked in 2006 at 81million barrels per day, will slide to 58million bpd by 2020 and 39million bpd by 2030. This is in sharp contrast to the International Energy Agency, which predicts 105million bpd by 2020 and 116million by 2030, though offline, there is a growing view at the IEA that its projections are too optimistic. The projections for the oil supply in OECD Europe are 5.6million bpd (2006), 2million by 2020, compared with the IEA's 3,3million bpd, and 1million bpd by 2030 versus 2.6million bpd from the IEA. And the projections for the oil supply in North America are: 2006 - 13.2million bpd; 2020 - 9.3million bpd (IEA 15.9million), and 2030 - 8.2million bpd (IEA 15.9million). EWG has performed similar analyses of all oil-producing regions/countries around the world and virtually all show a similar trend, and very much at odds with IEA projections. " The difference to the projections of the IEA could hardly be more dramatic, " says EWG, which says its analysis is rigorous. Its regional analysis shows that, apart from Africa, all show declining output by 2020 compared with 2005, with all in decline by 2030. EWG points to the long-running " hot debate " regarding peak oil - " Institutions close to the energy industry, like CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates), are engaging in a campaign trying to debunk the peak oil theory " . The think tank says its extensive paper is one of many by authors inside and outside ASPO (the Organisation for the Study of Peak Oil) showing that peak oil is anything but a theory. " It is real and we are witnessing it already, " insists EWG. " According to the scenario projections, the peak of world oil production was in 2006. " The timing of the peak in this study is by a few years earlier than seen by other authors (such as, for example, Campbell, ASPO, and Skrebowski) who are also well aware of the imminent oil peak. " One reason for the difference is a more pessimistic assessment of the potential of future additions to oil production, especially from offshore oil and from deep-sea oil due to the observed delays in announced field developments. Another reason are earlier and greater declines projected for key producing regions, especially in the Middle East. " EWG says its most important finding is the steep decline of the oil supply after peak, which squares with the thinking of Houston energy banker Matt Simmons (See Page 14). " This result - together with the timing of the peak - is obviously in sharp contrast to the projections by the IEA. But the decline is also more pronounced compared with the more moderate projections by ASPO. Yet this result conforms very well with the recent findings of Robelius in his doctoral thesis. This is all the more remarkable because a different methodology and different data sources have been used. " EWG pays close attention to the performance of the world's first and second-division international oil companies, and highlights their struggle to push production upwards and that they collectively peaked as far back as 2004. It claims, too, that close examination of their exploration budgets and other key figures demonstrate that most of the companies in fact accept that " most of the oil has already been found " . hAt 08:37 AM 11/6/07, you wrote: ALL PEAKED OUT AND NO PLACE ELSE TO GO BUT DO-O-O-W-N Posted by: " Mark Graffis " mgraffis mgraffis Mon Nov 5, 2007 11:37 am (PST) http://www.thisisnorthscotland.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=149212 & command=displayContent & sourceNode=150624 & contentPK=18877983 & folderPk=85744 & pNodeId=150607 ALL PEAKED OUT AND NO PLACE ELSE TO GO BUT DO-O-O-W-N Date : 05.11.07 " PEAK oil is now " , proclaims a hard-hitting study of global resources by the German-based Energy Watch Group. Its predictions are dire: global oil output peaked in 2006 at 81million barrels per day, will slide to 58million bpd by 2020 and 39million bpd by 2030. This is in sharp contrast to the International Energy Agency, which predicts 105million bpd by 2020 and 116million by 2030, though offline, there is a growing view at the IEA that its projections are too optimistic. The projections for the oil supply in OECD Europe are 5.6million bpd (2006), 2million by 2020, compared with the IEA's 3,3million bpd, and 1million bpd by 2030 versus 2.6million bpd from the IEA. And the projections for the oil supply in North America are: 2006 - 13.2million bpd; 2020 - 9.3million bpd (IEA 15.9million), and 2030 - 8.2million bpd (IEA 15.9million). EWG has performed similar analyses of all oil-producing regions/countries around the world and virtually all show a similar trend, and very much at odds with IEA projections. " The difference to the projections of the IEA could hardly be more dramatic, " says EWG, which says its analysis is rigorous. Its regional analysis shows that, apart from Africa, all show declining output by 2020 compared with 2005, with all in decline by 2030. EWG points to the long-running " hot debate " regarding peak oil - " Institutions close to the energy industry, like CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates), are engaging in a campaign trying to debunk the peak oil theory " . The think tank says its extensive paper is one of many by authors inside and outside ASPO (the Organisation for the Study of Peak Oil) showing that peak oil is anything but a theory. " It is real and we are witnessing it already, " insists EWG. " According to the scenario projections, the peak of world oil production was in 2006. " The timing of the peak in this study is by a few years earlier than seen by other authors (such as, for example, Campbell, ASPO, and Skrebowski) who are also well aware of the imminent oil peak. " One reason for the difference is a more pessimistic assessment of the potential of future additions to oil production, especially from offshore oil and from deep-sea oil due to the observed delays in announced field developments. Another reason are earlier and greater declines projected for key producing regions, especially in the Middle East. " EWG says its most important finding is the steep decline of the oil supply after peak, which squares with the thinking of Houston energy banker Matt Simmons (See Page 14). " This result - together with the timing of the peak - is obviously in sharp contrast to the projections by the IEA. But the decline is also more pronounced compared with the more moderate projections by ASPO. Yet this result conforms very well with the recent findings of Robelius in his doctoral thesis. This is all the more remarkable because a different methodology and different data sources have been used. " EWG pays close attention to the performance of the world's first and second-division international oil companies, and highlights their struggle to push production upwards and that they collectively peaked as far back as 2004. It claims, too, that close examination of their exploration budgets and other key figures demonstrate that most of the companies in fact accept that " most of the oil has already been found " . ****** Kraig and Shirley Carroll ... in the woods of SE Kentucky http://www.thehavens.com/ thehavens 606-376-3363 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.859 / Virus Database: 585 - Release 2/14/05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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