[graffis-l] PEAK OIL

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At 08:07 AM 8/3/07, you wrote:

> " Welcome to peak oil "

>Posted by: " Mark Graffis " mgraffis mgraffis

>Thu Aug 2, 2007 7:09 pm (PST)

>Oil Hits All-Time High Amid Peaking Supplies, Soaring Demand August 2,

>2007 Subscribe to this News Feed

>

>http://www.prweb.com/releases/2007/8/prweb543862.htm

>

>Oil Hits All-Time High Amid Peaking Supplies, Soaring Demand

>

>Waning global production, geopolitical fears, push crude to historic

>heights. " Welcome to peak oil, " one expert says

>

>San Francisco, Calif. (PRWEB) August 2, 2007 -- Crude oil prices surged to

>all-time nominal highs this week, eclipsing last summer's record and

>renewing fears that world oil production may have reached its historic

>peak. Front-month crude futures on NYMEX closed at $78.21 a barrel on

>Tuesday -- $1.38 higher than the previous high of $77.03 set on July 14,

>2006 amid shutdowns at Alaska's Prudhoe Bay oil fields and a widening

>military conflict in Lebanon.

>

>The previous all-time settlement high of $77.03 was set July 14, 2006 amid

>shutdowns at Alaska's Prudhoe Bay oil fields and a widening military

>conflict in Lebanon.

>

>This summer, market watchers say many of the same fears remain -- and some

>have worsened. While oil is flowing again in Alaska, crude output from key

>global producers is ebbing. Mexico -- the United States' second biggest

>supplier -- reports that crude production from its national oil company

>PEMEX fell 19% from last year and could run out in as few as seven years.

>

>Production from the North Sea continues to fall from its 2000 peak, while

>Nigeria, a top global exporter, is struggling to keep crude flowing in the

>face of a bitter insurgency targeting Western oil operations. Meanwhile,

>conflicts in the Middle East continue to simmer with the specter of a

>clash with Iran looming large over the Persian Gulf, the source of 28% of

>global crude exports.

>

>Perhaps most worrisome for oil markets are growing indications that Saudi

>Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, may have peaked. Crude output has

>fallen 10% over last year and many observers say the desert kingdom -- and

>by extension OPEC -- may be unable to boost flows to cool prices.

>

> " A new meta-concern is beginning to take hold, " says Richard Katz with SF

>Informatics, an energy-education organization based in San Francisco.

> " Everywhere you look, crude production has either hit a plateau or is

>declining. " If the trend continues, he says, world oil production as a

>whole may tip into permanent decline, if it hasn't done so already.

> " Welcome to peak oil, " says Katz.

>

>Despite skyrocketing prices, the world's thirst for oil remains as strong

>as ever, raising fears of further spikes. Americans are hitting the road

>in record numbers this summer and business activity appears brisk, with

>the economy growing at an annual rate of 3.4% in the second quarter.

>Meanwhile, rapidly industrializing nations such as China and India have

>emerged as powerful new draws on oil supplies.

>

>The combination of anemic supply and surging demand has some market

>watchers predicting stratospheric oil price levels within months. Goldman

>Sachs now says that $100 oil may be months away and CIBC World Markets

>says it could arrive next year.

>

>The triple-digit forecasts from Goldman and CIBC come on the heels of

>unusually grim outlooks issued by two major industry groups. A report in

>July by the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of imminent

>shortfalls in five years. And the National Petroleum Council, an industry

>group chaired by Lee Raymond, retired chief of ExxonMobil, said in its

>report " Facing the Hard Truths about Energy " that " oil and gas may run

>short in 2015. "

>

>With increasing signs that high oil prices are here to stay or may climb

>higher, experts are wondering how high oil can go before it stifles

>economic growth. Some observers say surging oil prices played a role in

>the recent stock market plunge. " Higher oil is starting to hurt, said

>Larry Peruzzi, equity trader at Boston Company Asset Management, as

>reported last week in the Wall Street Journal.

>

>Longer term, the bleak logic of peak oil, which promises continuing

>declines in petroleum output for decades, has led some analysts to declare

>the coming end of the oil age and the energy-intensive way of life that

>goes with it. James Howard Kunstler, author of " The Long Emergency " , says

>the oil crunch could threaten the stability of the global financial system

>that owes its existence to oil-driven economic growth.

>

> " Perhaps the most imminent danger, " he said in a recent blog, " is that the

>financial markets, which have been driving our insane, hollowed-out

>economy, will soon recognize what's in store and implode, creating a

>crisis of capital that will leave us with no ability to make any emergency

>investments. "

>

>Given peak oil's wide-reaching ramifications, Katz with SF Informatics

>urges an all-out education program along with a new Manhattan Project to

>deal with the fallout from diminishing oil availability. " We're going to

>have to come to terms with peak oil sooner or later, " he says. " Probably

>much sooner than you think. "

>

>About SF Informatics

>SF Informatics represents a group of citizens committed to researching and

>communicating critical environmental trends worldwide. Among its projects

>is a data-rich and colorful poster called The Oil Age that traces the

>history of oil production worldwide and displays key energy statistics

>from government and industry sources. Copies of The Oil Age poster can be

>purchased at www.oilposter.org. It will be on display at the American

>Museum of Science and Energy, Oak Ridge, TN, September 7, 2007- January 7,

>2008 as part of Indiana University's " Places & Spaces: Mapping Science "

>exhibit. For more information: dave .

 

******

Kraig and Shirley Carroll ... in the woods of SE Kentucky

http://www.thehavens.com/

thehavens

606-376-3363

 

 

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