Re:OT: Next up Iran? Executive Order already in place

[Guest guest]

At 12:49 PM 3/29/07, you wrot

 

 

Jill St. John

 

Russian intelligence

sees U.S. military buildup on Iran border

17:31

|

27/ 03/

2007

 

 

MOSCOW, March 27 (RIA Novosti)

- Russian military intelligence services are reporting a flurry of

activity by U.S. Armed Forces near Iran's borders, a high-ranking

security source said Tuesday.

" The latest military

intelligence data point to heightened U.S. military preparations for both

an air and ground operation against Iran, " the official said, adding

that the Pentagon has probably not yet made a final decision as to when

an attack will be launched.

He said the Pentagon is looking for a way to deliver a strike against

Iran " that would enable the Americans to bring the country to its

knees at minimal cost. "

He also said the U.S. Naval presence in the Persian Gulf has for the

first time in the past four years reached the level that existed shortly

before the invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical

Sciences, said last week that the Pentagon is planning to deliver a

massive air strike on Iran's military infrastructure in the near future.

 

A new U.S. carrier battle group has been dispatched to the Gulf.

The USS John C. Stennis, with a crew of 3,200 and around 80 fixed-wing

aircraft, including F/A-18 Hornet and Superhornet fighter-bombers, eight

support ships and four nuclear submarines are heading for the Gulf, where

a similar group led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower has been deployed

since December 2006.

The U.S. is also sending Patriot anti-missile systems to the region.

 

-------------------------------

Iran: Britain must admit navy trespassed

By NASSER KARIMI, Associated Press

Writer2 hours, 20 minutes ago

Iran's foreign minister said Wednesday that Britain must admit

that its 15 sailors and marines entered Iranian waters in order to

resolve a standoff over their capture by Iranian authorities.

Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's

announcement came on a day of escalating tensions, highlighted by an

Iranian video of the detained Britons that showed the only woman captive

saying her group had " trespassed " in Iranian waters. Britain

angrily denounced the video as unacceptable and froze most dealings with

the mideast nation.

" First they have to admit that they have made a mistake. Admitting

the mistake will facilitate a solution to the problem, " Mottaki told

The Associated Press in an interview in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. " But

unfortunately the British have not admitted their mistake. "

Mottaki also backed off a prediction that the female sailor, Faye Turney,

could be freed Wednesday or Thursday, but said Tehran agreed to allow

British officials to meet with service personnel.

His comments were the first confirmation that Iran agreed to a British

request for a consular visit with the crew, though he did not specify

when. Iran has not said where the 15 are being held.

" We have accepted that (the British request), there is no problem.

Measures are underway (to arrange meeting.) They can meet them, " he

said.

---

 

 

 

Biological Threat And

Executive Order 13292

Avian Flu To Be Used As Pretext For Attack,

Not Iran's Nuclear Program

 

By Jorge Hirsch

4-4-6

 

History repeats itself,

but always with new twists. We are back to the good old days when a

Declaration of War preceded the start of a war. Such a declaration

occurred on March 16th, 2006.

Reversing the old order, we

are now in the " Sitzkrieg " , to be followed shortly by an aerial

" Blitzkrieg " in the coming days.

In the old days, Congress

declared war, and directed the Executive to take action. In the new

millenium,

The Executive declared war

last March 16th, then Congress will pass H.R. 282, " To hold the

current regime in Iran accountable for its threatening behavior and to

support a transition to democracy in Iran. "

This bill and previous ones

like it are in direct violation of the legally binding Algiers Accords

signed by the United States and Iran on January 19, 1981, that states

" The United States pledges that it is and from now on will be the

policy of the United States not to intervene, directly or indirectly,

politically or militarily, in Iran's internal affairs " ; however,

this is clearly of no interest to the 353 policymakers sponsoring the

bill.

The US promised Russia and

China that the UN Security Council statement just approved will not be a

trigger for military action after 30 days; true to its promise, the US

will attack before the 30-day deadline imposed by the UNSC for Iran to

stop its nuclear enrichment activity, i.e. before the end of April. The

" justification " is likely to be an alleged threat of imminent

biological attack with Iran's involvement.

The Declaration of War against

Iran

In the aftermath of Pearl

Harbor, the Congressional Declaration of December 8, 1941 stated:

 

" Whereas the Imperial

Government of Japan has committed unprovoked acts of war against the

Government and the people of the United States of America: Therefore be

it Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United

States of America in Congress assembled, That the state of war between

the United States and the Imperial Government of Japan which has thus

been thrust upon the United States is hereby formally declared; and the

president is hereby authorized and directed to employ the entire naval

and military forces of the United States and the resources of the

Government to carry on war against the Imperial Government of

Japan. "

Similarly, the formal war

declaration against Iran, the National Security Strategy of March 16,

2006, stated:

* " We may face no greater

challenge from a single country than from Iran. "

* " The Iranian regime

sponsors terrorism; threatens Israel; seeks to thwart Middle East peace;

disrupts democracy in Iraq; and denies the aspirations of its people for

freedom. "

* " [T]he first duty of

the United States Government remains what it always has been: to protect

the American people and American interests. It is an enduring American

principle that this duty obligates the government to anticipate and

counter threats, using all elements of national power, before the threats

can do grave damage. "

* " The greater the

threat, the greater is the risk of inaction ­ and the more compelling the

case for taking anticipatory action to defend ourselves, even if

uncertainty remains as to the time and place of the enemy's attack. There

are few greater threats than a terrorist attack with WMD. "

 

* " To forestall or

prevent such hostile acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if

necessary, act preemptively. "

* " When the consequences

of an attack with WMD are potentially so devastating, we cannot afford to

stand idly by as grave dangers materialize. "

* " [T]here will always be

some uncertainty about the status of hidden programs. "

* " Advances in

biotechnology provide greater opportunities for state and non-state

actors to obtain dangerous pathogens and equipment. "

* " Biological weapons

also pose a grave WMD threat because of the risks of contagion that would

spread disease across large populations and around the

globe. "

* " Countering the spread

of biological weapons .... will also enhance our Nation's ability to

respond to pandemic public health threats, such as avian

influenza. "

This has to be combined with

the 2005 U.S. State Department " FINDING. The United States judges

that, based on all available information, Iran has an offensive

biological weapons program in violation of the BWC. "

In addition, the March 16

declaration makes it clear that the US will use nuclear weapons in the

war against Iran:

* " ..using all elements

of national power... "

* " Safe, credible, and

reliable nuclear forces continue to play a critical role. We are

strengthening deterrence by developing a New Triad composed of offensive

strike systems (both nuclear and improved conventional

capabilities). "

....and this is further

reinforced by the just released " National Military Strategy to

Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction " that states:

" Offensive operations may

include kinetic (both conventional and nuclear) and/or non-kinetic

options (e.g. information operations) to deter or defeat a WMD threat or

subsequent use of WMD. "

There is, of course, also the

claim that Iran is a threat because it intends to develop nuclear

weapons. The sole purpose of that claim, which flies in the face of all

available evidence, is to generate a diplomatic stalemate at the UN that

will allow Bush to state that other nations share the US concern but not

the resolve to act. However, the actual trigger for the bombing to begin

will not be the long-term and by now discredited nuclear threat, rather

it is likely to be the threat of an imminent biological attack.

 

Casus Belli

There is no casus belli

against Iran based on its nuclear program. The IAEA has found no evidence

that in the 20 years of its development there has been any diversion of

nuclear material to military applications. The Bush administration now

officially acknowledges that the issue with Iran arises from a

" loophole " in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, that allows

non-nuclear countries to pursue uranium enrichment. However it is not a

loophole, the right to a full civilian nuclear program is an integral

part of the compromise, that made non-nuclear countries agree to it. For

the US to call it a loophole means to abrogate the treaty unilaterally

and propose a different treaty that non-nuclear countries will have no

motivation to agree to.

The Bush administration

declares that a civilian nuclear program that gives Iran

" knowledge " or " capability " to build a nuclear weapon

is unacceptable. It could apply exactly the same logic to

biotechnology.

The State Department says that

" Iran is expanding its biotechnology and biomedical industries by

building large, state-of-the-art research and pharmaceutical production

facilities. These industries could easily hide pilot to industrial-scale

production capabilities for a potential BW program, and could mask

procurement of BW-related process equipment. " Why isn't the US

demanding that Iran stops its biotechnology research and development, and

that it transfers all biotech related activities to Russia?

The key lies in Executive

Order 13292, which made information on " weapons of mass

destruction " and on " defense against transnational

terrorism " classified.

If concrete details about

Iran's alleged biological weapons programs were made public, they would

be subject to public scrutiny and they would be discredited, as the

allegations on Iran's " nuclear weapons program " have been. The

US is likely to have " assembled " classified information on

Iran's biological weapons programs and shared it with selected

individuals, including members of Congress, under the constraint that

classified information cannot be made public.

For example, at the June 25,

2004 House subcommittee " MEMBERS ONLY CLASSIFIED BRIEFING on Iran,

Middle East Proliferation and Terrorist Capabilities. " The

unclassified portion of that briefing states " It is time for Iran to

declare its biological weapons program and make arrangements for its

dismantlement. "

There is likely to be a team

of " experts " lined up by the administration that will support

its claims that Iran had a biological weapons program representing an

imminent threat. There is always room in science for differing opinions,

and if an open scientific debate is not possible because information is

classified, any outlandish claim can find some supporters in the

scientific community. The most likely biological threat to be invoked,

because it has a natural time element associated with it, is the threat

of a bird flu pandemic caused by a deliberately mutated H5N1 virus

carried by migrating wild birds.

The Biological Threat

 

Consider for example Dr. Ward Casscells, a renowned cardiologist that has of late become an " expert " in bioterrorism. Even more recently, Dr. Casscells joined the Army as a colonel . According to the US Defense Department, " his years of research on now-spreading avian flu are now deemed cutting edge. "

However, I know of no independent credible scientific body that makes the same assessment: Dr. Casscells has written a total of four papers on the effect of influenza on cardiac disease which have been cited by no other scientists. His paper " Influenza as a bioweapon " has a grand total of 5 citations, meaning a mere 5 other papers refer to it; " cutting edge " scientific papers have hundreds or thousands of citations. His only other paper on the subject, " Influenza as a bioterror threat: the need for global vaccination " has zero citations.

Nonetheless, Dr. Casscells' outstanding credentials as a scientist will be invoked by the administration if he vouches for the credibility of " intelligence " indicating that a dangerous mutated bird flu virus has been developed in an Iranian underground bioweapons laboratory. Dr. Casscells has been surveilling the Middle East to " scope out the possibility for a widespread outbreak " of bird flu. Because he has been advocating the view that " Bird flu is poised to be an explosive problem " and has predicted the use of influenza as a bioweapon, he is likely to be inclined to believe such claims. Similarly his scientific colleagues at the " Defense of Houston " committee, that work on anticipating bioterrorism threats and are highly lauded by the administration and very well funded by Army grants.

The Bush administration has spent vast sums of money in combating bioterrorism threats, reportedly over $7 billion per year, without any evidence or precedent for bioterrorism attacks. Nevertheless there will always be plenty of scientists that will flock to where the grant money is and devote efforts to validate conclusions that are valued by the organizations giving the grants, and news media duly publicize the hyped threat of bioterrorism.

Still, last year over 700 scientists including 2 Nobel laureates signed a petition objecting to the diversion of funds from projects of high public-health importance to biodefense, calling it a " misdirection " of priorities. Dr. Richard H. Ebright, a renowned molecular biologist, states that " A majority of the nation's top microbiologists ­ the very group that the Bush administration is counting on to carry out its biodefense research agenda ­ dispute the premises and implementation of the biodefense spending. "

On the supposed threat of bird flu, while it is continuously being hyped by the administration [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], expert opinion is that it is not a serious threat [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6] and is politically motivated. The blaming of bird flu spread on wild birds is also highly questionable [1], [2].

On March 15th, right before the disclosure of the new National Security Strategy, I suggested the bird flu casus belli against Iran, that would " necessitate " bombing of Iranian facilities before the bird migration season begins in the Spring. Several elements emphasized in the March 16 NSS appear to support that scenario, as discussed above. In a March 20 press conference concerning federal preparedness for avian flu, Secretary Michael Leavitt (who also warned a few weeks ago to store tuna and milk under the bed to prepare for bird flu ) stated " Think of the world if you will as a vast forest that is susceptible to fire. A spark if allowed to burn will emerge as an uncontainable fire. That's a pandemic. If we are there when the spark happens, it can be squelched. But if allowed to burn for a time it begins to spread uncontrollably. " An aerial attack on Iranian installations may be touted as the " squelching " of the bird flu pandemic spark.

Does Bush need congressional authorization to bomb Iran? The answer is contained in the Statement by the president of October 16, 2002, in signing into law the congressional authorization to use force against Iraq. It states

" ...I sought an additional resolution of support from the Congress to use force against Iraq, should force become necessary. While I appreciate receiving that support, my request for it did not, and my signing this resolution does not, constitute any change in the long-standing positions of the executive branch on either the president's constitutional authority to use force to deter, prevent, or respond to aggression or other threats to U.S. interests or on the constitutionality of the War Powers Resolution. "

In other words: " I appreciate Congress' authorization but didn't need it and will not need it next time with Iran. "

The War Powers Resolution encourages the president to consult with Congress " in every possible instance " , yet allows the president to introduce Armed Forces into hostilities without Congressional authorization; it simply compels him to terminate hostilities within 60 to 90 days unless Congress authorizes an extension. Plenty time enough.

The Attack

It is unlikely that there will be a public announcement of the impending attack before it starts, since it would generate opposition. Allies do not want to be implicated and will deny any knowledge. Who will be officially notified that an attack is about to take place? Most likely, Iran itself.

Direct conversations between the US and Iran are about to start, nominally on the subject of Iraq only. They will also provide the only direct conduit for the US to communicate with Iran without intermediaries. An " ultimatum " unacceptable to Iran, as was delivered publicly to Iraq on March 17th, 2003, could be delivered privately to Iran through that route. The reasons for our actions will be clear, the force measured, and the cause just.

The initial US attack on Iranian facilities is likely to be " measured " : a highly accurate strike on selected facilities " suspected " of bioweapons work, with cruise missiles launched from submarines or ships in the Persian Gulf. That is a component of the CONPLAN 8022 Global Strike mission, which recently became operational and also includes nuclear preemptive strikes.

The " clear " reasons and " just " cause for the administration to attack can be stated as follows: if a bird flu pandemic can cause 150 million deaths and there is even a one percent probability that the " intelligence " is right, i.e. even if there is a 99% " uncertainty about the status of hidden programs " , the expected number of deaths that would be prevented by bombing the Iranian facilities is the product of those two numbers, i.e. 1.5 million, vastly larger than the few thousand Iranian casualties due to " collateral damage. "

Any military reaction by Iran to the attack, perhaps even a verbal reaction, will be construed as " aggression " by Iran towards the US and Israel, and result in large scale bombing of Iranian missile, nuclear and other facilities. Does that sound absurd? Recall that the US and Britain bombed Iraq's no-fly zones well before the Iraq invasion, and Iraqi response was labeled " aggression toward planes of the coalition forces. " Nuclear earth penetrating weapons may be used in the initial attack, and certainly will be used in the large scale attack that will follow.

Why will this happen? Because it was " pencilled in " a long time ago. The actions of the US against Iran in recent years have been clearly directed towards a confrontation, to suppress the rise of Iran as a strong regional power that does not conform to US interests.

Can it be Prevented?

A small group of thugs is about to lead America across a line of no return. On the other side of this line there is no nuclear taboo, no restraint on preemptive nuclear attacks on non-nuclear nations, and no incentive for non-nuclear nations to remain non-nuclear. A global nuclear war and the destruction of humanity will be a distinct possibility.

Americans are largely unaware of what is about to happen. Half a million people go to the streets on immigration law, yet nobody is demonstrating against the Iran war that will radically change the life of Americans for generations to come. The more informed sectors of society, scientists, arms control organizations, the media, the political establishment, the military, are not taking a strong stand against the impending war. Congress is silent.

Only people in the know can stop this. Resigning from the job is not good enough [1], [2], [3]. People in the know have to come forward with information that brings the impending attack to the forefront of attention of Congress and the American public and thwarts it. Not doing so is being complicit in a plan that will bring tragic consequences to America and the world.

Else, all that will be left is to bring the perpetrators to justice. Danton, Robespierre, Mussolini, Petain, Ribbentrop, Goering, Ceausescu also occupied positions of power and prominence at some point in their careers.

_____

Jorge Hirsch is a professor of physics at the University of California San Diego.

January 11, 2007

Did the President Declare " Secret War " Against Syria and Iran?

Washington intelligence, military and foreign policy circles are abuzz today with speculation that the President, yesterday or in recent days, sent a secret Executive Order to the Secretary of Defense and to the Director of the CIA to launch military operations against Syria and Iran.

The President may have started a new secret, informal war against Syria and Iran without the consent of Congress or any broad discussion with the country.

The bare outlines of that order may have appeared in President Bush's Address to the Nation last night outlining his new course on Iraq:

 

 

Succeeding in Iraq also requires defending its territorial integrity and stabilizing the region in the face of extremist challenges. This begins with addressing Iran and Syria. These two regimes are allowing terrorists and insurgents to use their territory to move in and out of Iraq. Iran is providing material support for attacks on American troops. We will disrupt the attacks on our forces. We'll interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria. And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq.

 

We're also taking other steps to bolster the security of Iraq and protect American interests in the Middle East. I recently ordered the deployment of an additional carrier strike group to the region. We will expand intelligence-sharing and deploy Patriot air defense systems to reassure our friends and allies. We will work with the governments of Turkey and Iraq to help them resolve problems along their border. And we will work with others to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and dominating the region.

 

Adding fuel to the speculation is that U.S. forces today raided an Iranian Consulate in Arbil, Iraq and detained five Iranian staff members. Given that Iran showed little deference to the political sanctity of the US Embassy in Tehran 29 years ago, it would be ironic for Iran to hyperventilate much about the raid.

But what is disconcerting is that some are speculating that Bush has decided to heat up military engagement with Iran and Syria -- taking possible action within their borders, not just within Iraq.

Some are suggesting that the Consulate raid may have been designed to try and prompt a military response from Iran -- to generate a casus belli for further American action.

If this is the case, the debate about adding four brigades to Iraq is pathetic. The situation will get even hotter than it now is, worsening the American position and exposing the fact that to fight Iran both within the borders of Iraq and into Iranian territory, there are not enough troops in the theatre.

Bush may really have pushed the escalation pedal more than any of us realize.

-- Steve Clemons

 

Jill St. John

Professional Voice Services

Narrator- " House of Babies " -Discovery Health Channel

Telly award winning Television Narration, Infomercials & Advertising

 

On call cell is 701-541-0993

 

 

 

Don't pick lemons.

See all the new 2007 cars at Autos.

 

---

Incoming mail is certified Virus Free.

Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).

Version: 6.0.859 / Virus Database: 585 - Release 2/14/05

 

******

Kraig and Shirley Carroll ... in the woods of SE Kentucky

http://www.thehavens.com/

thehavens

606-376-3363

 

 

 

---

Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.

Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).

Version: 6.0.859 / Virus Database: 585 - Release 2/14/05

[Guest guest]

 

-

The Havens

Health and Healing-

Thursday, March 29, 2007 9:01 AM

Re:OT: Next up Iran? Executive Order already in place

 

 

At 12:49 PM 3/29/07, you wrot

Jill St. John

Russian intelligence sees U.S. military buildup on Iran border

17:31|27/ 03/ 2007

<snip>

 

probably not yet made a final decision as to when an attack will be launched. He said the Pentagon is looking for a way to deliver a strike against Iran "that would enable the Americans to bring the country to its knees at minimal cost."

<snip>

 

Yeh, kind of like they did in Iraq (said facetiously)

 

 

..

 

 

---Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).Version: 6.0.859 / Virus Database: 585 - Release 2/14/05