Guest guest Posted April 16, 2006 Report Share Posted April 16, 2006 Bird Flu - it's a pandemic - no, it's not... I wonder what happened to change the CDC's thinking. Kind regards Sepp ALLIANCE FOR HUMAN RESEARCH PROTECTION (AHRP) Promoting Openness, Full Disclosure, and Accountability <http://www.ahrp.org/cms/>http://www.ahrp.org/cms/ FYI The Tacoma Tribune reports that the head of the Center for Disease Control, Dr. Julie Gerberding, has reversed the agency's bird flu policy, which viewed the threat from the worse-case scenario lens. Dr. Gerberdig told a Tacoma Washington audience of 1,200 : " There is no evidence [the bird flu] will be the next pandemic. no evidence it is evolving in a direction that is becoming more transmissible to people. " Perhaps this turn around has something to do with the fall-out from public disclosure about the beleaguered Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld's financial interest in Gilead Science, manufacturer of Tamiflu, the flu vaccine. [see: <http://www.ahrp.org/cms/content/view/39/27/>http://www.ahrp.org/cms/content/vie\ w/39/27/ ] There was never any science to back a frenzied government policy promoting mass vaccination against the bird flu--which was declared to be an imminent pandemic, officials claiming that millions of unvaccinated people would die. Does this turn-around suggest that a major shift has taken place at CDC? Does this signal a shift from commercially driven public health policies to policies that are backed by scientific evidence? Contact: Vera Hassner Sharav 212-595-8974 <veracareveracare <http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/5663788p-5080102c.html>http://ww\ w.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/5663788p-5080102c.html Bird flu threat not so grave, CDC chief says M. ALEXANDER OTTO; The News Tribune Published: April 15th, 2006 01:00 AM Federal health officials at a meeting Friday in Tacoma downplayed the risk bird flu poses to humans, contrasting earlier warnings from the federal government. " There is no evidence it will be the next pandemic, " Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, said of avian flu. There is " no evidence it is evolving in a direction that is becoming more transmissible to people. " Gerberding spoke at the Greater Tacoma Convention & Trade Center at a pandemic flu conference that drew 1,200 people from across the state, mostly health department officials and others involved in emergency planning. Other officials from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and elsewhere joined her. Gov. Chris Gregoire and several upper-level state officials also spoke. Gerberding's comments on bird flu contrast earlier statements from the federal government that tended to emphasize worse-case scenarios. In a November letter to the public, for instance, President Bush encouraged preparing " ourselves, our nation, and our world to fight this potentially devastating outbreak of infectious disease. " The concern is that the H5N1 strain of bird flu virus will mutate into a form passed easily between people. visit to encourage state planning Audience questions Friday about buying surgical masks and stockpiling food showed the concern Bush's comments and others have raised. But Gerberding noted that, though the disease has killed " gazillions of birds, " it has killed about 100 people out of about 200 sickened worldwide. The victims were in intense, daily contact with sick flocks, often sharing the same living space. Two people have become infected from person-to-person contact. She did not say what had changed the thinking of health care officials about bird flu, but said that, at this point, there is " no reason to think it ever will " pass easily between people. Given those facts, bird flu, like SARS, swine flu and other once widely publicized health threats, might never become a significant human illness. The visit by Gerberding and the other federal officials was part of a 50-state tour to encourage state and local planning for pandemics, terrorism and other health emergencies. Such preparedness would be especially important, since local officials would be the first to learn of problems, and a full federal response couldn't be expected for a few days. It was announced at the meeting that Washington state has been granted $2 million * federal money to help with planning. Several officials said state and local planning in Washington already is among the best in the nation. " We have an effective state strategy, " Gregoire said, noting the need for constant fine-tuning and updating. " Today we talk about pandemic flu. In 10 years it will be something else " - the important thing is to be ready for whatever comes. easy precautions to take Even if bird flu never causes significant problems for people, Gerberding said, the focus on it encourages emergency planning " that will save lives whether there is a pandemic or not. " She and other federal officials said H5N1 bird flu likely will reach the United States, because bird flu and its many strains occur naturally in migratory birds. When that happens, " it does not signal the start of a pandemic " or a threat to the food supply, said Richard Raymond, an undersecretary at the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Cooking meat to 160 degrees will destroy the virus, he said - in addition to destroying salmonella, " which sickens more people than H5N1 ever will even if there is a pandemic. " Gerberding cautioned that when H5N1 is detected in the United States, " there will be temptation for the press to make this into something it is not. We will need responsible journalism " to prevent irrational panic. M. Alexander Otto: 253-597-8616 <alex.ottoalex.otto FAIR USE NOTICE: This may contain copyrighted (© ) material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such material is made available for educational purposes, to advance understanding of human rights, democracy, scientific, moral, ethical, and social justice issues, etc. It is believed that this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in Title 17 U.S.C. section 107 of the US Copyright Law. This material is distributed without profit. -- The individual is supreme and finds its way through intuition. Sepp Hasslberger " Historical " page on physics/energy: http://www.hasslberger.com/ Critical perspective on Health: http://www.newmediaexplorer.org/sepp/ New blog on physics, new energy, economy: http://blog.hasslberger.com/ Freedom of choice - La Leva di Archimede: http://www.laleva.cc/ La Leva's news: http://www.laleva.org/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted April 17, 2006 Report Share Posted April 17, 2006 DARN IT!...I had done a pretty good job of preparing for " Bird Flu " ...lots of vitamin " C " and selenium on hand, and have become accustomed to real clean hands, two(2) hot showers a day and a gallon of distilled water, along with a little ag. Now, I'm wondering what will be the next pandemic... could it remain related to food supply...cows or wheat or soy ...or water, or aerosols in the air(sure hope it's not Lyme's, or even worse, Morgellon's) ...or solar radiation. Heck, still gotta eat and breathe.. Take care, Shag...who's asking himself if this is really good news. , Sepp Hasslberger <sepp wrote: > > > Bird Flu - it's a pandemic - no, it's not... > > I wonder what happened to change the CDC's thinking. > > Kind regards > Sepp > > > > ALLIANCE FOR HUMAN RESEARCH PROTECTION (AHRP) > Promoting Openness, Full Disclosure, and Accountability > <http://www.ahrp.org/cms/>http://www.ahrp.org/cms/ > > FYI > > The Tacoma Tribune reports that the head of the > Center for Disease Control, Dr. Julie Gerberding, > has reversed the agency's bird flu policy, which > viewed the threat from the worse-case scenario > lens. > > Dr. Gerberdig told a Tacoma Washington audience > of 1,200 : " There is no evidence [the bird flu] > will be the next pandemic. no evidence it is > evolving in a direction that is becoming more > transmissible to people. " > > Perhaps this turn around has something to do with > the fall-out from public disclosure about the > beleaguered Secretary of Defense, Donald > Rumsfeld's financial interest in Gilead Science, > manufacturer of Tamiflu, the flu vaccine. [see: > <http://www.ahrp.org/cms/content/view/39/27/>http://www.ahrp.org/cms/con\ tent/view/39/27/ > ] > > There was never any science to back a frenzied > government policy promoting mass vaccination > against the bird flu--which was declared to be an > imminent pandemic, officials claiming that > millions of unvaccinated people would die. Does > this turn-around suggest that a major shift has > taken place at CDC? > > Does this signal a shift from commercially driven > public health policies to policies that are > backed by scientific evidence? > > > > Contact: Vera Hassner Sharav > 212-595-8974 > <veracareveracare > > > <http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/5663788p-5080102c.html>h\ ttp://www.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/5663788p-5080102c.html > Bird flu threat not so grave, CDC chief says > > M. ALEXANDER OTTO; The News Tribune > Published: April 15th, 2006 01:00 AM > > Federal health officials at a meeting Friday in > Tacoma downplayed the risk bird flu poses to > humans, contrasting earlier warnings from the > federal government. > > " There is no evidence it will be the next > pandemic, " Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the > Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in > Atlanta, said of avian flu. There is " no evidence > it is evolving in a direction that is becoming > more transmissible to people. " > > Gerberding spoke at the Greater Tacoma Convention > & Trade Center at a pandemic flu conference that > drew 1,200 people from across the state, mostly > health department officials and others involved > in emergency planning. > > Other officials from the U.S. Department of > Health and Human Services, the U.S. Department of > Agriculture and elsewhere joined her. Gov. Chris > Gregoire and several upper-level state officials > also spoke. > > Gerberding's comments on bird flu contrast > earlier statements from the federal government > that tended to emphasize worse-case scenarios. > > In a November letter to the public, for instance, > President Bush encouraged preparing " ourselves, > our nation, and our world to fight this > potentially devastating outbreak of infectious > disease. " > > The concern is that the H5N1 strain of bird flu > virus will mutate into a form passed easily > between people. > > visit to encourage state planning > > Audience questions Friday about buying surgical > masks and stockpiling food showed the concern > Bush's comments and others have raised. > > But Gerberding noted that, though the disease has > killed " gazillions of birds, " it has killed about > 100 people out of about 200 sickened worldwide. > The victims were in intense, daily contact with > sick flocks, often sharing the same living space. > Two people have become infected from > person-to-person contact. > > She did not say what had changed the thinking of > health care officials about bird flu, but said > that, at this point, there is " no reason to think > it ever will " pass easily between people. > > Given those facts, bird flu, like SARS, swine flu > and other once widely publicized health threats, > might never become a significant human illness. > > The visit by Gerberding and the other federal > officials was part of a 50-state tour to > encourage state and local planning for pandemics, > terrorism and other health emergencies. > > Such preparedness would be especially important, > since local officials would be the first to learn > of problems, and a full federal response couldn't > be expected for a few days. > > It was announced at the meeting that Washington > state has been granted $2 million > > * federal money to help with planning. > > Several officials said state and local planning > in Washington already is among the best in the > nation. > > " We have an effective state strategy, " Gregoire > said, noting the need for constant fine-tuning > and updating. " Today we talk about pandemic flu. > In 10 years it will be something else " - the > important thing is to be ready for whatever comes. > > easy precautions to take > > Even if bird flu never causes significant > problems for people, Gerberding said, the focus > on it encourages emergency planning " that will > save lives whether there is a pandemic or not. " > > She and other federal officials said H5N1 bird > flu likely will reach the United States, because > bird flu and its many strains occur naturally in > migratory birds. > > When that happens, " it does not signal the start > of a pandemic " or a threat to the food supply, > said Richard Raymond, an undersecretary at the > U.S. Department of Agriculture. > > Cooking meat to 160 degrees will destroy the > virus, he said - in addition to destroying > salmonella, " which sickens more people than H5N1 > ever will even if there is a pandemic. " > > Gerberding cautioned that when H5N1 is detected > in the United States, " there will be temptation > for the press to make this into something it is > not. We will need responsible journalism " to > prevent irrational panic. > > M. Alexander Otto: 253-597-8616 > > <alex.otto > > > FAIR USE NOTICE: This may contain copyrighted (© > ) material the use of which has not always been > specifically authorized by the copyright owner. > Such material is made available for educational > purposes, to advance understanding of human > rights, democracy, scientific, moral, ethical, > and social justice issues, etc. It is believed > that this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such > copyrighted material as provided for in Title 17 > U.S.C. section 107 of the US Copyright Law. This > material is distributed without profit. > > > -- > > > The individual is supreme and finds its way through intuition. > > Sepp Hasslberger > > > " Historical " page on physics/energy: http://www.hasslberger.com/ > > Critical perspective on Health: http://www.newmediaexplorer.org/sepp/ > > New blog on physics, new energy, economy: http://blog.hasslberger.com/ > > Freedom of choice - La Leva di Archimede: http://www.laleva.cc/ > La Leva's news: http://www.laleva.org/ > > > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted April 18, 2006 Report Share Posted April 18, 2006 A response to my question regarding the bird flu: Bird Flu - it's a pandemic - no, it's not... I wonder what happened to change the CDC's thinking. from Julia Pendower in the UK. forwarding for everyone else... Kind regards Sepp " Julia Pendower \(VL\) " <jp " 'Sepp Hasslberger' " <sepp, " 'AltMedForum' " RE: No Evidence of Pandemic - US Center for Disease Control Changes Bird Flu Policy Tue, 18 Apr 2006 12:02:21 +0100 Fear of damage to the economy, and precipitation of a national and possibly global recession. It is widely predicted the BF in birds will reach the US anytime very soon - weeks - if it has not arrived already. Economic drivers In each country where BF has been confirmed in birds, the poultry industry has gone to a state of near collapse, or has in fact collapsed. In itself, the knock on effects to both the local economy, and thereby the international economy are very severe. Chicken is a major source of protein in most of Asia, Africa, India etc - and prices of other meat sources have increased in some cases by as much as 100% and more. This is having knock on effects on every economical aspect - from reduced amounts of disposable income in local economies (= less exports from the US) to reduced tourism etc and populations anger at govt. measures taken for containment and control. It is proving to be very politically destabilising in some countries, especially where the population just does not understand why all their birds are being taken from them and killed with no or very little compensation, and in most of these countries every family has a few chickens. Now the prevailing consideration in both the US and the EU will be to stop similar economic consequences in their domestic markets. Italy and Germany have seen its poultry industry collapse already as consumers have reacted by avoiding chicken products and eggs. If the US govt stops telling people in the US to stockpile 6 weeks supply of food and meds for general preparedness planning (and some states are suggesting 3 months worth) then it is more likely that there is something afoot within the virus that means that they perceive a lower risk from it than previously. 'Watch what they do, not what they say' is a good philosophy here. As yet, this advice in US state pandemic preparedness plans is still very mush there, as is the advice on the HHS website. There is also increasing govt led activity with infrastructure organisations such as water supply, electricity, food movement and the like in both the EU and the US. This does not suggest that they perceive a lower risk. Increased monies have also been made available for IV bags, drips etc used by hospitals so that supplies can be built up. Politics and vaccines Also politics is a key issue - it is now become more publicly known that it would take 6 years to produce enough vaccine to cover 20% of the global population, if you assume a single 15mg dosage (see below) - long after a pandemic virus would have come and gone. There isn't anything anyone can do about this if a pandemic were to erupt within the next 3-5 years, as new technologies have to be developed and invented using plant based cells for manufacture - this virus is even killing the animal/ human cell cultures, and to quote 'you cant make cells grow any faster'. There is US political backlash over the issue, including why the US has no vaccine manufacturing capacity of its own. The only good news on the vaccines front is that egg based production is completely out = no usage of thiosermal, if it should ever become needed. However so far, the 'test strains' are only producing an antibody response in 54% of test subjects, and only if they use a massive 180mg dosage split in two, and delivered six weeks apart. Manufacturing is also very slow and very long. On this basis, if a workable vaccine could be developed post a pandemic eruption, then global annual capacity at present could produce enough vaccine only for key workers in the western world only in the early most lethal stages of a pandemic. Present Policy Everything in WHO and CDC plans is now all about buying time for vaccine manufacture to take place - and then in theory they would 'vaccinate everyone' as soon as they could (see UK govt policy) - however, this is not only impossible now, it is also impossible for quite some years (if ever) for technical reasons outlined above, and if this virus is going to go pandemic I very much doubt it will be kind enough to wait until industry has worked out how to solve the problems. Additionally containment strategies planned are a complete joke for Africa etc as there is NO health infrastructure to even test for the virus in birds, let alone humans, and let alone having any hope in hell of spotting human cases/deaths against a background noise of mortality from diseases like encephalitis, cholera, meningitis, AIDS, malaria etc in order to put containment measures in place. Other places like N Korea/ Burma are a complete black hole also, and because compensation for backyard farmers in all these countries is inadequate or absent, all the populations are doing is hiding outbreaks (e.g Cambodia) and killing birds if they get sick, or just burying them if they all die overnight. Genetics The virus in the 1997 Hong Kong outbreak had 2,3 and 2,6 sialic acid specificity but not other critical gene changes needed for human to human transmission. Now the other changes thought to be needed are 'fixed' in quite a few circulating strains and clades, but these viri still only have 2,3 sialic acid specificity. This means this 2,6 change CAN happen - it has before, and this is thought to be the major bar to a pandemic. Whether this is all that might be needed is another matter again. In all, I very much doubt that the downplaying now is anything more than socio-economic driven in origin. However, if the key activities of contingency planning for essential service industries stops, if the US stops trying to persuade its entire population to stockpile six weeks of food, and if DARPA withdraws its 'no ceiling' budget for research funds to figure out a solution to the vaccine production problems, or if I see some hard science and genetic sequences (these are mostly held in a secret database by WHO except for a few which are released by the independent research scientists directly to Genbank) etc I will rest easier and stop worrying. In the meantime however, I don't see any of these things changing - just a shift in the public communications, so that they do not panic the people. Regards to all Julia Sepp Hasslberger [sepp] 16 April 2006 17:27 AltMedForum No Evidence of Pandemic - US Center for Disease Control Changes Bird Flu Policy Bird Flu - it's a pandemic - no, it's not... I wonder what happened to change the CDC's thinking. Kind regards Sepp ALLIANCE FOR HUMAN RESEARCH PROTECTION (AHRP) Promoting Openness, Full Disclosure, and Accountability <http://www.ahrp.org/cms/>http://www.ahrp.org/cms/ FYI The Tacoma Tribune reports that the head of the Center for Disease Control, Dr. Julie Gerberding, has reversed the agency's bird flu policy, which viewed the threat from the worse-case scenario lens. Dr. Gerberdig told a Tacoma Washington audience of 1,200 : " There is no evidence [the bird flu] will be the next pandemic. no evidence it is evolving in a direction that is becoming more transmissible to people. " Perhaps this turn around has something to do with the fall-out from public disclosure about the beleaguered Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld's financial interest in Gilead Science, manufacturer of Tamiflu, the flu vaccine. [see: <http://www.ahrp.org/cms/content/view/39/27/>http://www.ahrp.org/cms/content/vie\ w/39/27/ ] There was never any science to back a frenzied government policy promoting mass vaccination against the bird flu--which was declared to be an imminent pandemic, officials claiming that millions of unvaccinated people would die. Does this turn-around suggest that a major shift has taken place at CDC? Does this signal a shift from commercially driven public health policies to policies that are backed by scientific evidence? Contact: Vera Hassner Sharav 212-595-8974 <veracareveracare <http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/5663788p-5080102c.html>http://ww\ w.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/5663788p-5080102c.html Bird flu threat not so grave, CDC chief says M. ALEXANDER OTTO; The News Tribune Published: April 15th, 2006 01:00 AM Federal health officials at a meeting Friday in Tacoma downplayed the risk bird flu poses to humans, contrasting earlier warnings from the federal government. " There is no evidence it will be the next pandemic, " Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, said of avian flu. There is " no evidence it is evolving in a direction that is becoming more transmissible to people. " Gerberding spoke at the Greater Tacoma Convention & Trade Center at a pandemic flu conference that drew 1,200 people from across the state, mostly health department officials and others involved in emergency planning. Other officials from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and elsewhere joined her. Gov. Chris Gregoire and several upper-level state officials also spoke. Gerberding's comments on bird flu contrast earlier statements from the federal government that tended to emphasize worse-case scenarios. In a November letter to the public, for instance, President Bush encouraged preparing " ourselves, our nation, and our world to fight this potentially devastating outbreak of infectious disease. " The concern is that the H5N1 strain of bird flu virus will mutate into a form passed easily between people. visit to encourage state planning Audience questions Friday about buying surgical masks and stockpiling food showed the concern Bush's comments and others have raised. But Gerberding noted that, though the disease has killed " gazillions of birds, " it has killed about 100 people out of about 200 sickened worldwide. The victims were in intense, daily contact with sick flocks, often sharing the same living space. Two people have become infected from person-to-person contact. She did not say what had changed the thinking of health care officials about bird flu, but said that, at this point, there is " no reason to think it ever will " pass easily between people. Given those facts, bird flu, like SARS, swine flu and other once widely publicized health threats, might never become a significant human illness. The visit by Gerberding and the other federal officials was part of a 50-state tour to encourage state and local planning for pandemics, terrorism and other health emergencies. Such preparedness would be especially important, since local officials would be the first to learn of problems, and a full federal response couldn't be expected for a few days. It was announced at the meeting that Washington state has been granted $2 million * federal money to help with planning. Several officials said state and local planning in Washington already is among the best in the nation. " We have an effective state strategy, " Gregoire said, noting the need for constant fine-tuning and updating. " Today we talk about pandemic flu. In 10 years it will be something else " - the important thing is to be ready for whatever comes. easy precautions to take Even if bird flu never causes significant problems for people, Gerberding said, the focus on it encourages emergency planning " that will save lives whether there is a pandemic or not. " She and other federal officials said H5N1 bird flu likely will reach the United States, because bird flu and its many strains occur naturally in migratory birds. When that happens, " it does not signal the start of a pandemic " or a threat to the food supply, said Richard Raymond, an undersecretary at the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Cooking meat to 160 degrees will destroy the virus, he said - in addition to destroying salmonella, " which sickens more people than H5N1 ever will even if there is a pandemic. " Gerberding cautioned that when H5N1 is detected in the United States, " there will be temptation for the press to make this into something it is not. We will need responsible journalism " to prevent irrational panic. M. Alexander Otto: 253-597-8616 <alex.ottoalex.otto FAIR USE NOTICE: This may contain copyrighted (© ) material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such material is made available for educational purposes, to advance understanding of human rights, democracy, scientific, moral, ethical, and social justice issues, etc. It is believed that this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in Title 17 U.S.C. section 107 of the US Copyright Law. This material is distributed without profit. -- The individual is supreme and finds its way through intuition. Sepp Hasslberger " Historical " page on physics/energy: http://www.hasslberger.com/ Critical perspective on Health: http://www.newmediaexplorer.org/sepp/ New blog on physics, new energy, economy: http://blog.hasslberger.com/ Freedom of choice - La Leva di Archimede: http://www.laleva.cc/ La Leva's news: http://www.laleva.org/ Robin Good - http://www.masternewmedia.org/ Trash Your Television! http://www.tvturnoff.org/ Not satisfied with news from the tube and other controlled media? Search the net! There are thousands of information sources out there. Start with http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/ http://www.truthout.org/ http://www.tvnewslies.org/ http://www.WantToKnow.info http://www.joevialls.co.uk/ http://www.Rense.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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