Bird-Flu Pandemic Would Likely Start in California [How do they know?]

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" Lori R. Price " <lrprice

Fri, 31 Mar 2006 07:55:13 -0500

[AggressiveProgressives] Bird-Flu Pandemic Would Likely Start

in California [How do they know?]

 

 

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31 March 2006

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Bird-Flu Pandemic Would Likely Start in California [How do they know?]

30 Mar 2006 If a bird-flu pandemic does hit the United States, it may

well start in California and spread across the country in just two to

four weeks. That's the scenario drawn from results of a computer model

created by researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health's

Fogarty International Center.

 

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Bird-Flu Pandemic Would Likely Start in California

03.30.06, 12:00 AM ET

 

THURSDAY, March 30 (HealthDay News) -- If a bird-flu pandemic does hit

the United States, it may well start in California and spread across

the country in just two to four weeks.

 

And the best way to slow its spread would be to have workers stay at home.

 

That's the scenario drawn from results of a computer model created by

researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health's Fogarty

International Center. And while the results of that computer model

should be interpreted with caution, it is based on data from ordinary

flu epidemics for the last three decades, said study author Dr. Mark

A. Miller, associate director for research at the center.

 

" The unique feature of this model is that it challenges conventional

wisdom, which says that flu is spread by children bringing it back to

the household, " Miller said. " That may be true at the household level,

but regionally it is spread by adults. "

 

That's why measures to keep people at home could slow the spread of

infection, Miller said. Another finding in the study is that states

with large populations, such as California, are more likely to reach

epidemic levels of the flu at the same time than less-populous states,

where transmission tends to be more erratic, he said.

 

So California, the most populous state, would be the most logical

place for a pandemic to start, Miller said. Another factor pointing

toward California is that bird -- also called avian -- flu is expected

to arrive from Asia, he said.

 

As for the speed of spread, the estimate is based on ordinary

epidemics. " What we see is that epidemics with more pathogenic viruses

spread more quickly, two to four weeks versus five to seven weeks for

less pathogenic viruses nationwide, " Miller said.

 

The findings appear in the March 31 issue of the journal Science.

 

The Fogarty researchers used epidemiological data on seasonal flu

epidemics that have occurred yearly in the United States since 1972.

They connected that information with data from the Census Bureau and

the federal Department of Transportation, looking at variations in

yearly epidemics from state to state and links with local flows of

people to workplaces.

 

Bird flu is pathogenic, but it does not yet spread easily from person

to person; close exposure to an infected bird is needed to cause a

human infection. The danger will come when, and if, a mutation makes

human-to-human transmission easy.

 

Since 2003, the H5N1 bird flu virus has been detected in 45 countries

in Africa, Asia, and Europe. More than 100 people have died after

coming into contact with infected poultry.

 

The model developed by the Fogarty researchers can go just so far in

predicting what might happen if such a mutation occurs, Miller said.

This model notably doesn't include previous pandemics, just ordinary

epidemics, and a pandemic might have different characteristics, he said.

 

Still, the model can help plan for ordinary, predictable epidemics by

showing how they start and spread, Miller said. It's also not the

first of its kind, he said: " We did a similar model to explain the

spread of measles. "

 

More information

 

For more on bird flu, visit the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention.