There Are About Even Odds 50 percent of the population could die,

[Guest guest]

Are you getting ready to line up for inoculation, yet? Are you ready to mandate

" quarantine " and no travel ?) Beware the Needle, Rose

 

 

 

 

FROM ABC NEWS

 

" Society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could

die. And I think we have to face that possibility, " Webster said. " I'm sorry if

I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role. "

 

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/AvianFlu/story?id=1724801

 

Renowned Bird Flu Expert Warns: Be Prepared

There Are " About Even Odds " That the Virus Could Mutate to an Easily

Transmitted Form, He Tells 'World News Tonight'

//

Robert G. Webster believes there is a 50-50 chance the avian flu could mutate

to become easily transmissble to humans. (St. Jude Hospital)

 

 

Bird Flu

What You Should Do to Prepare for an Epidemic

How Would You Know If You Had Avian Flu?

How Will Bird Flu Change Your Life?

 

 

 

 

 

 

By JIM AVILA and MEREDITH RAMSEY March 14, 2006 — Robert G. Webster is one

of the few bird flu experts confident enough to answer the key question: Will

the avian flu switch from posing a terrible hazard to birds to becoming a real

threat to humans?

There are " about even odds at this time for the virus to learn how to transmit

human to human, " he told ABC's " World News Tonight. " Webster, the Rosemary

Thomas Chair at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., is

credited as the first scientist to find the link between human flu and bird flu.

Webster and his team of scientists are working to find a way to beat the virus

if it morphs. He has even been dubbed the Flu Hunter.

Right now, H5N1, a type of avian influenza virus, has confined itself to

birds. It can be transmitted from bird to human but only by direct contact with

the droppings and excretions of infected birds.

But viruses mutate, and the big fear among the world's scientists is that the

bird flu virus will join the human flu virus, change its genetic code and emerge

as a new and deadly flu that can spread through the air from human to human.

 

If the virus does mutate, it does not necessarily mean it will be as deadly to

people as it is to birds. But experts such as Webster say they must prepare for

the worst.

 

" I personally believe it will happen and make personal preparations, " said

Webster, who has stored a three-month supply of food and water at his home in

case of an outbreak.

 

Frightening Warning

" Society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could

die. And I think we have to face that possibility, " Webster said. " I'm sorry if

I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role. "

Most scientists won't put it that bluntly, but many acknowledge that Webster

could be right about the flu becoming transmissible among humans, even though

they believe the 50 percent figure could be too high.

Researcher Dr. Anne Moscona at New York Weill Cornell Medical Center said that

a human form may not mutate this year or next — or ever — but it would be

foolish to ignore the dire consequences if it did.

" If bird flu becomes not bird flu but mutates into a form that can be

transmitted between humans, we could then have a spread like wildfire across the

globe, " Moscona said.

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