Why Peak Oil Matters to Americans

[Guest guest]

Why Peak Oil Matters to Americans

 

Source: Tide Pool

Feb 04, 2006

http://www.evworld.com/view.cfm?section=communique & newsid=10915

 

SYNOPSIS: Congressman Tom Udall editorial on why he and Congressman

Roscoe Bartlett formed the Peak Oil Caucus.

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS: Congressman Tom Udall editorial on why he and Congressman

Roscoe Bartlett formed the Peak Oil Caucus.

 

In 1970, oil production within the United States peaked -- reached its

maximum production rate -- at not much more than 10 million barrels of

oil per day. That means since 1970, oil production in this country has

been declining, and we now import 58 percent of the oil we use. The

sheer scale of the American appetite for petroleum is difficult to

grasp: Per capita, each of us consumes about 20 pounds of petroleum

products each day.

 

With demand rising and production that we can control falling, our

dependence on imported oil has become an economic, diplomatic

andsecurity nightmare. We now send $25 million an hour abroad to pay

forforeign oil, and some of that money is diverted to the same jihadi

terrorists we are spending additional billions to fight. For these

andother reasons, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.) and I founded the

Congressional Peak Oil Caucus in October 2005.

 

A crisis looms if we do not begin preparing for the day when world oil

production peaks. And that day is coming, most likely within four to

eight years. Peak oil is a fact, not a theory, and the logic is

simple.World oil production has been increasing for more than 140

years. But you have to discover oil before you can produce it. Global

discoveries peaked 40 years ago, so the production peak will

necessarily follow.Oil production in 33 of the 48 largest

oil-producing nations in the world has already peaked.

 

Theworld now consumes 84 million barrels of oil per day, and it is

true that there will be enough oil produced this year and the next to

meetglobal demand. But thereafter, depletion is likely to gain the

upper hand as global production flattens and begins to decline.

 

Peak oil does not mean we are running out of oil. Indeed, at peak,

society will recover and refine more oil than ever before. But once

oil production begins to decline, prices are likely to rise sharply,

with some mainstream experts predicting a doubling or tripling by

2015. What we are running out of is cheap oil -- the $20 per barrel

oil aroundwhich we have designed our automobiles, our subdivisions,

the American way of life. Cheap oil, in conjunction with Yankee

ingenuity and the entrepreneurial spirit, has been the wellspring for

our current prosperity.

 

When world oil production peaks at 88 or 90 or 94 million barrels a

day, we will move from the era of cheap oil to an era of more

expensive oil. An economy based on the availability of oil, as we've

known it, will nolonger make sense. Looking ahead, we need 10 to 15

years to develop and implement a new energy policy before the shock of

peak oil arrives.

 

Oil provides 40 percent of the world's energy, and some people argue

thatmarket forces will make alternative fuels more competitive. This

is wishful thinking. None of the currently available alternative

sourcesof liquid fuels is anywhere near ready to replace oil in the

volumes weuse it today. Happy talk about hydrogen and other mythical

elixirs will not save the day. Solar, wind, and biofuels all have

significant potential but still represent far less than 10 percent of

our currentenergy portfolio in the United States.

 

So what do we do? A few years ago, Vice President Cheney

said, " Conservation may be a sign of personal virtue, but it is not a

sufficient basis for a sound, comprehensive energy policy. " He could

not be more wrong. Our future prosperity now depends on a rapid

increase in energy conservation. Conserving energy is patriotic;

indeed, it's one of the most patriotic things any of us can do.

 

The storm is gathering. There's a lot of work to do and not much time

to doit. We've got to replace 200 million vehicles with far more

efficient ones. If we are smart about this, we can rebuild Detroit,

now rapidly going broke, in the process. We've got to own up to the

fact that transporting goods and people by rail is at least five times

more efficient than cars and trucks. Therefore, we must revive and

reinvest in our passenger and freight rail systems. We must accelerate

our deployment of wind and solar power, while launching a

massive,long-term investment in advanced energy research.

 

President Kennedy challenged the nation to reach the moon in less than

a decade,and we did. If we are serious about defending the nation and

preservingour prosperity, energy security and energy conservation must

be our newwatchwords, our new space program.

 

 

 

Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., is a senior member of the House Resources

Committee. His web site is tomudall.house.gov.