Future of the Kyoto Protocol.

[Guest guest]

Pricking the global conscience

Dec 14th 2005

From The Economist print edition

 

JEAN CHRÉTIEN, a former prime minister of Canada, described his country's

relationship with its giant southern neighbour as like sleeping with an

elephant. It was, he observed, good to have a few others around to watch the

elephant as well. An important United Nations (UN) conference on climate change,

which has just concluded in Montreal, showed just how right he was.

For two weeks, negotiators from nearly every country in the world converged on

the frozen Canadian metropolis to discuss the future of the Kyoto protocol. That

controversial UN pact obliges many industrialised countries (but notably not the

United States) to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by a fixed

amount below their 1990 levels by 2012. The treaty's 150-odd signatories had

hoped to map a rough outline of what should come after the treaty's first

commitment period.

In the event, the American delegation strenuously opposed them, insisting that

it was too early to contemplate life after Kyoto. Then, in shockingly

undiplomatic language, Paul Martin, Canada's prime minister, denounced the

American position and invoked the need for a “global conscience” to deal with

this most global of problems. America's chief negotiator stormed off in a huff,

throwing the meeting into chaos. The talks looked destined to fail. Then

something odd happened that persuaded the elephant to dance.

Canada's friends came to the rescue at the last minute. Defying expectations,

China, the biggest GHG emitter not to have an emissions target, and Australia,

which also rejected the Kyoto treaty, agreed to talk about talks. Then Bill

Clinton delivered a clever last-minute speech suggesting that the Bush

administration's position on climate change is out of touch with the sentiments

of many Americans and with the actions of the many American states and

corporations that are already cutting GHG emissions.

Finding itself isolated, the American delegation reluctantly returned to the

negotiating table—and, after an all-night session, a compromise deal was

announced on December 10th.

 

Life after Kyoto

The final pact is not quite the “historic agreement” some green groups claim,

but it does, nonetheless, make progress in three broad areas. First, the

signatories to Kyoto agreed on fiddly details essential for the implementation

of the pact. For example, they accepted compliance rules that set out what

happens if countries do not meet their targets. They also agreed on ways to

improve the treaty's overly bureaucratic mechanism for rich countries to gain

credits for reducing GHGs in developing ones and in former Soviet states.

Second, they agreed that future climate talks should take twin tracks. First,

Kyoto signatories will now start negotiations on what binding emissions targets

the rich countries of “Kyotoland” must accept for the second commitment period.

These negotiations must be completed in time to ensure that there is no gap

between the first round and what follows.

Second, everyone—including America—agreed to start talks on a possible UN

climate pact that would include America and China. This is not as big a

breakthrough as it might seem, for the American delegation insisted that

mandatory emissions targets must not be part of these discussions. Even so, it

represents progress of a sort, and it creates a UN process through which a

post-Bush America could take on meaningful emissions targets.

The final, and largely overlooked, outcome of the conference may yet prove its

most important: delegates agreed to promote carbon capture and sequestration

technologies, and to get serious about adaptation to climate change.

Carbon sequestration matters because the world cannot simultaneously meet its

energy needs and climate goals without developing technologies for using the

vast global reserves of coal in ways that do not contribute to global warming.

Adaptation matters because even if future rounds of Kyoto succeed in bringing

America on board, many aspects of global warming are already inevitable. The sea

level, for example, will continue to rise for decades to come, with awkward

consequences for much of humanity, especially in the poorest parts of the world.

The Montreal summit therefore deserves credit for bringing America back into

the UN's climate negotiations. However, its enduring legacy may be greater still

if it results in serious efforts around the world to adapt to the inevitable

consequences of climate change.

 

 

2005 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist

Group. All rights reserved.

 

 

 

 

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