Focusing on the Wrong Number

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http://www.motherjones.com/commentary/columns/2005/10/wrong_number.html

 

 

Focusing on the Wrong Number

 

Commentary: The figure of 2,000 U.S. soldiers dead in Iraq is

arbitrary and clouds our understanding of the war's full impact.

 

By Carl Robichaud

 

October 28, 2005

 

 

Article created by The Century Foundation

 

America's enterprise in Iraq crossed a somber landmark when the

2,000th American soldier died this week. Most of the major papers

focused on this story, and the New York Times printed photographs of

1,000 soldiers who have given their lives. But the figure of 2,000 is

an arbitrary one, and clouds our understanding of the war's impact.

There are other numbers that give a fuller accounting of the costs of

this war.

 

* Fifteen thousand, for example: the number of America's wounded.

While body armor and improved medical technology has raised the

survival rate from 75 percent in Vietnam to 87 percent today, almost

half of these injuries (7,159 of 15,220) are serious. Ten percent of

the wounded will go home with spinal injuries. Another ten percent

have experienced head injuries, and many will suffer brain damage.

Amputation rates, at 6 percent, are double the historic norm. " You

live, " says Lt. Col. Craig Silverton, an orthopedic surgeon, " but you

have these devastating injuries. " " Somebody's got to pay the price, "

says Col. Joseph Brennan, a head and neck surgeon, " And these kids are

paying the price. "

 

In March, a photo essay by Johnny Dwyer published in the New

York Times Magazine described what the word " casualty " encompasses:

" deep flesh wounds, burst eardrums, shattered teeth, perforated

organs, flash burns to the eyes, severed limbs. " The images are even

more powerful; they strip away the anesthetized images we have of

'survivors.' These soldiers may survive, but their dreams—of playing

sports again, going to college, walking on the beach—will not. Other

soldiers, not tallied in these casualty figures, will suffer from

psychological trauma for the rest of their days.

 

* Three hundred and fifteen billion dollars is the price of

health-care for the wounded, according to Linda Bilmes, a public

finance professor at Harvard University. Blimes extrapolated from data

on disability claims from the Gulf War to calculate this figure; if it

is even close to the mark it will burden the Veteran Affairs

department for decades.

 

* Four thousand is the estimated number of families that have had

a spouse or parent killed or seriously wounded. Many of these families

are working class and have lost a primary breadwinner. Soldiers in

National Guard and reserve units, who did not anticipate a lengthy and

dangerous deployment when they signed up, now account for one-third of

all dead and wounded.

 

* Thirty thousand is the frequently-cited number of Iraqis who

have died directly from the war. But when you factor in indirect

results of the war—increased infant mortality, damage to

infrastructure, the rise in criminality, and other changes from

pre-war Iraq—the number skyrockets. A team led by Les Roberts of the

Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, published a study one year ago

in The Lancet that showed that the United States-led invasion had

resulted in 100,000 Iraqi civilian deaths during the first 18 months.

When you factor in injuries (in the hundreds of thousands) and

economic disruption it becomes clear that the Iraqis are bearing

staggering costs.

 

There is evidence that Americans are coming to terms with the war's

consequences. An October NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll shows a

majority of Americans believe that the war was not worth it (by a 51

to 40 margin.) A Pew Center poll found that when asked " Do you think

the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq until the situation has

stabilized, or do you think the U.S. should bring its troops home as

soon as possible? " a plurality for the first time favored withdrawal.

Though the 48 to 47 percent margin is statistically insignificant, it

marks a major shift from October of last year, when Americans

supported keeping troops in Iraq by a 57–36 margin. A Harris Poll

published in The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday suggests that only 19

percent believe the situation for U.S. troops is improving while 44

percent think it's getting worse.

 

In 1971, John Kerry asked the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, " how

do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake? " With all

the attention focused on a single number this week, it's worth

remembering that a man can give his life without appearing in the

fatality figures.

 

Carl Robichaud is a program officer at The Century Foundation.