Experts say threat from virus is unprecedented

[Guest guest]

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/article320369.ece

 

Experts say threat from virus is unprecedented

By Steve Connor, Science Editor

Published: 18 October 2005

 

 

 

 

The bird flu virus that has arrived in Europe poses an unprecedented

threat, with experts warning that the number of human infections

reported in Asia could be just a small proportion of the actual figure.

 

One of Britain's leading specialists in influenza said a pandemic

strain of bird flu that can spread between humans is more likely to

arise as more birds become infected.

 

Sir John Skehel, a distinguished influenza expert, said that in his

experience there has not been a bird flu virus quite like the H5N1

strain that is affecting south-east Asia, Turkey and Romania. " This is

an unusual situation, " Sir John admitted. " Since we've been recording

there hasn't been the spread of a single virus as widely as the H5 virus. "

 

The World Health Organisation said that the current outbreaks of bird

flu in south-east Asia are the largest and most severe on record.

" Never before in the history of this disease have so many countries

been simultaneously affected, resulting in the loss of so many birds, "

a WHO spokesman said.

 

In addition to the speed of its spread among birds, the H5N1 strain of

bird flu can also infect humans and is unusually lethal, Sir John told

journalists ahead of a mission of British experts to China and Vietnam

next week. Thousands of birds - migratory species as well as domestic

poultry - have been infected by the H5N1 strain of bird flu, which is

also known to have infected at least 120 people, killing half of them.

 

So far there have been no reports of people in Turkey or Europe being

infected by the latest outbreaks but Sir John warned that the risk to

Europeans has increased " slightly " .

 

Sir John, director of the National Institute for Medical Research, in

Mill Hill, north London, where the influenza virus was first isolated

in 1933, said that one of the great unanswered questions was how many

people are really infected with the bird flu virus.

 

" How are people checking in the Far East for people who have recovered

from the infection? " he asked. " Are the total number of people who

have been infected the tip of the iceberg and, beneath them, are there

are a lot of others who have been infected? It is an important question. "

 

Sir John warned that trying to predict when and where the next flu

pandemic would occur was a dangerous game. " I think it is anybody's

guess, " he said. " The more it spreads, the more it is likely to infect

.... You just can't predict where the next one is coming from. "

 

The British delegation to China and Vietnam will investigate the

measures being taken to monitor the spread of H5N1 and in particular

the possibility that some people may be infected without developing

serious enough symptoms to seek medical help.

 

They will spend 10 days looking at ways to improving collaboration

with scientists in China as well as increasing the surveillance of

potentially infected birds.

 

Sir John said: " We want to know how the Chinese are responding, how

they are looking at their birds, how they are looking at their people,

how they are set up and are there ways we can help. "

 

Professor Colin Blakemore, chief executive of the Medical Research

Council, said announcing the decision to go to China and Vietnam was

not a panic response to the latest outbreaks in Europe because the

trip was arranged many weeks ago. " Vigilance and attention without

panic is what we need, " he said, adding: " We've been planning this

trip for some time. "

 

In a statement to MPs, Health Secretary Patricia Hewitt said £200m had

been committed to fighting the illness and, as yet, there was no

" direct threat " to the British population. But she added: " We are of

course planning for the very real risk of a very significant increase

in the number of hospital admissions. "