The H5N1 Equation

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http://www.truthout.org/docs_2005/101405H.shtml

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2005/101405H.shtml

 

 

 

The H5N1 Equation

Le Monde | Editorial

 

Friday 14 October 2005

 

We've known everything about avian flu for a long time. Here's a

" documented " disease that presents no enigma to specialists, unlike

the disease called " mad cow. " That could be a very reassuring factor

had the international community not demonstrated a confusing lack of

solidarity the last two years when it failed to bring a resolute

assistance to bear on the poor countries of Asia and South-East Asia

that were the first affected.

 

Let us summarize: the virus in question is the sub-type H5N1, a

highly pathological virus, clearly discovered and identified for the

first time several decades ago among wild birds. The epizootic in

question today broke out at the end of 2003. At first, it principally

affected Vietnam, Thailand and South Korea, then China, Taiwan, Japan,

Cambodia, and Laos. In this geographic zone, about 150 people have

been infected while plucking poultry and 60 of them have died. In

parallel, the authorities in the affected countries have proceeded to

slaughter over 100 million chickens, ducks, and geese.

 

At that stage, the H5N1 equation was rather easy to resolve. A

vaccination to immunize poultry exists. Rich countries should have

reacted immediately by freeing up the financial resources to arrest

this bird plague where it came from. The Food and Agriculture

Organization (FAO) estimated that investments over the next three

years for that purpose would come to 100 million dollars. But up to

now, only 20 million dollars have been promised, while, according to

the British daily " Financial Times, " the United States alone is

getting ready to place an order for antiviral medicine of over a

billion dollars.

 

Suddenly, the equation begins to change its nature. At first

localized and circumscribed, the epidemic prospers and globalizes. It

was discovered in Russia and Kazakhstan in August; in Turkey and

Romania today. Once imaginary, the risk of a pandemic striking Europe

has become palpable. And, in fact, the European Commission's tone

abruptly changed on Thursday, October 13. It had been distractedly

attentive. Now it is mobilized.

 

Paris also intends to increase its communications. The Prime

Minister tries to reassure by declaring: " We now already have an

operational apparatus. " Happy news. France is one of the most affected

countries because it is the premier producer of poultry in the

European Union and number three in the world after the United States

and Brazil. This situation imposes a very specific vigilance on it.

 

By virtue of traveling and dispersion, even slowly, the H5N1

equation has, in fact, become an equation of an unknown. As in Asia,

the risk exists that the virus will infect people here also. Panic is

a poor counselor. One the other hand, respect for a serious hygiene

policy is desirable.

 

 

 

Go to Original

 

Anxieties

By Patrick Sabatier

Libération

 

Friday 14 October 2005

 

Between the desire not to panic the people and the desire to let

it know that the Republic watches over its security by preparing for

the worst, there is barely the thickness of a feather of a

flu-infected chicken. Now that the H5N1 invader has landed in Europe

(Turkey seems to have all of a sudden been integrated into the Union)

and established a bridgehead here, the authorities' fever, in Paris,

Brussels, and other European capitals, has climbed up several degrees

on the thermometer of declarations, meetings, and mobilizations of all

sorts. Just about everywhere, Tamiflu stock is rising on the exchanges

of popular anxieties, and the quest for a magic potion that will

protect against avian flu has become feverish.

 

Only two months ago, the authorities attempted to be reassuring -

the dirty beasts took wing from the Indonesian archipelago to the

Siberian lakes. Today, they're less sure of themselves. Commissioner

Kipryanou foresees " a large number of deaths, " Villepin mobilizes to

the bugle call of patriotic hygiene. The virus is in the hen house.

After all, the 1918 flu pandemic with its 40 million deaths killed

more people than the Great War, without even mentioning 1348 and the

black plague.

 

The big difference between these plagues of the past is that today

the virus cannot take people by surprise. The alert is general and the

surveillance international.

 

Globalization conjugates itself along with the principle of

precaution. Which will (perhaps) avert science fiction scenarios - in

which masked citizens wander around inside paralyzed cities,

pharmacies are defended by the army and peasants placed in quarantine

in the midst of pyramids of chicken carcasses - from one day becoming

a real horror movie in which we are all involuntary extras.

 

Translation: t r u t h o u t French language correspondent Leslie

Thatcher.

 

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