Earth 'will expire by 2050' - Article, July 7, 2002 The Observer

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The Living Planet report, World Wildlife Fund (WWF)

http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,750783,00.html

 

 

 

 

Earth 'will expire by 2050'

 

 

Mark Townsend and Jason Burke Sunday July 7, 2002 The Observer

 

Earth's population will be forced to colonise two planets within 50

years if

natural resources continue to be exploited at the current rate,

according to

a report out this week.

 

A study by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), to be released on Tuesday, warns

that the human race is plundering the planet at a pace that outstrips its

capacity to support life.

 

In a damning condemnation of Western society's high consumption levels, it

adds that the extra planets (the equivalent size of Earth) will be

required

by the year 2050 as existing resources are exhausted.

 

The report, based on scientific data from across the world, reveals

thatmore

than a third of the natural world has been destroyed by humans overthepast

three decades.

 

Using the image of the need for mankind to colonise space as a stark

illustration of the problems facing Earth, the report warns that either

consumption rates are dramatically and rapidly lowered or the planet

will no

longer be able to sustain its growing population.

 

Experts say that seas will become emptied of fish while forests - which

absorb carbon dioxide emissions - are completely destroyed and freshwater

supplies become scarce and polluted.

 

The report offers a vivid warning that either people curb their

extravagant

lifestyles or risk leaving the onus on scientists to locate another planet

that can sustain human life. Since this is unlikely to happen, the only

option is to cut consumption now.

 

Systematic overexploitation of the planet's oceans has meant the North

Atlantic's cod stocks have collapsed from an estimated spawning stock of

264,000 tonnes in 1970 to under 60,000 in 1995.

 

The study will also reveal a sharp fall in the planet's ecosystems between

1970 and 2002 with the Earth's forest cover shrinking by about 12

percent,the ocean's biodiversity by a third and freshwater ecosystems

in the

region of 55 per cent.

 

The Living Planet report uses an index to illustrate the shocking level of

deterioration in the world's forests as well as marine and freshwater

ecosystems. Using 1970 as a baseline year and giving it a value of 100,the

index has dropped to a new low of around 65 in the space of a single

generation.

 

It is not just humans who are at risk. Scientists, who examined data

for 350

kinds of mammals, birds, reptiles and fish, also found the numbers of many

species have more than halved.

 

Martin Jenkins, senior adviser for the World Conservation

MonitoringCentrein

Cambridge, which helped compile the report, said: 'It seems things are

getting worse faster than possibly ever before. Never has one

singlespecieshad such an overwhelming influence. We are entering uncharted

territory.'

 

Figures from the centre reveal that black rhino numbers have fallen from

65,000 in 1970 to around 3,100 now. Numbers of African elephants have

fallen

from around 1.2 million in 1980 to just over half a million while

thepopulation of tigers has fallen by 95 per cent during the past century.

 

The UK's birdsong population has also seen a drastic fall with the

cornbunting population declining by 92 per cent between 1970 and 2000, the

treesparrow by 90 per cent and the spotted flycatcher by 70 per cent.

 

Experts, however, say it is difficult to ascertain how many species have

vanished for ever because a species has to disappear for 50 years

before it

can be declared extinct.

 

Attention is now focused on next month's Earth Summit in Johannesburg,

themost important environmental negotiations for a decade.

 

However, the talks remain bedevilled with claims that no agreements

will be

reached and that US President George W. Bush will fail to attend.

 

Matthew Spencer, a spokesman for Greenpeace, said: 'There will have to be

concessions from the richer nations to the poorer ones or there will be

fireworks.'

 

The preparatory conference for the summit, held in Bali last month, was

marred by disputes between developed nations and poorer states and

non-governmental organisations (NGOs), despite efforts by

Britishpoliticians

to broker compromises on key issues.

 

America, which sent 300 delegates to the conference, is accused of

blocking

many of the key initiatives on energy use, biodiversity and

corporateresponsibility.

 

The WWF report shames the US for placing the greatest pressure on the

environment. It found the average US resident consumes almost double the

resources as that of a UK citizen and more than 24 times that of

someAfricans.

 

Based on factors such as a nation's consumption of grain, fish, wood and

fresh water along with its emissions of carbon dioxide from industry

andcars, the report provides an ecological 'footprint' for each country by

showing how much land is required to support each resident.

 

America's consumption 'footprint' is 12.2 hectares per head of population

compared to the UK's 6.29ha while Western Europe as a whole stands at

6.28ha. In Ethiopia the figure is 2ha, falling to just half a hectare for

Burundi, the country that consumes least resources.

 

The report, which will be unveiled in Geneva, warns that the wastefullife

styles of the rich nations are mainly responsible for the exploitation and

depletion of natural wealth. Human consumption has doubled over thelast30

years and continues to accelerate by 1.5 per cent a year.

 

Now WWF wants world leaders to use its findings to agree on

specificactions

to curb the population's impact on the planet.

 

A spokesman for WWF UK, said: 'If all the people consumed natural

resources

at the same rate as the average US and UK citizen we would require

atleasttwo extra planets like Earth.'