The treaty wreckers

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,5673,1540683,00.html

 

The treaty wreckers

 

In just a few months, Bush and Blair have destroyed global restraint on

the development of nuclear weapons

 

George Monbiot

Tuesday August 2, 2005

The Guardian

 

Saturday is the 60th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima. The

nuclear powers are commemorating it in their own special way: by seeking

to ensure that the experiment is repeated.

 

As Robin Cook showed in his column last week, the British government

appears to have decided to replace our Trident nuclear weapons, without

consulting parliament or informing the public. It could be worse than he

thinks. He pointed out that the atomic weapons establishment at

Aldermaston has been re-equipped to build a new generation of bombs. But

when this news was first leaked in 2002 a spokesman for the plant

insisted the equipment was being installed not to replace Trident but to

build either mini-nukes or warheads that could be used on cruise missiles.

 

Article continues

If this is true it means the government is replacing Trident and

developing a new category of boil-in-the-bag weapons. As if to ensure we

got the point, Geoff Hoon, then the defence secretary, announced before

the leak that Britain would be prepared to use small nukes in a

pre-emptive strike against a non-nuclear state. This put us in the

hallowed company of North Korea.

 

The Times, helpful as ever, explains why Trident should be replaced. " A

decision to leave the club of nuclear powers, " it says, " would diminish

Britain's international standing and influence. " This is true, and it

accounts for why almost everyone wants the bomb. Two weeks ago, on

concluding their new nuclear treaty, George Bush and the Indian prime

minister Manmohan Singh announced that " international institutions must

fully reflect changes in the global scenario that have taken place since

1945. The president reiterated his view that international institutions

are going to have to adapt to reflect India's central and growing role. "

This translates as follows: " Now that India has the bomb it should join

the UN security council. "

 

It is because nuclear weapons confer power and status on the states that

possess them that the non-proliferation treaty, of which the UK was a

founding signatory, determines two things: that the non-nuclear powers

should not acquire nuclear weapons, and that the nuclear powers should

" pursue negotiations in good faith on ... general and complete

disarmament " . Blair has unilaterally decided to rip it up.

 

But in helping to wreck the treaty we are only keeping up with our

friends across the water. In May the US government launched a systematic

assault on the agreement. The summit in New York was supposed to

strengthen it, but the US, led by John Bolton - the undersecretary for

arms control (someone had a good laugh over that one) - refused even to

allow the other nations to draw up an agenda for discussion. The talks

collapsed, and the treaty may now be all but dead. Needless to say,

Bolton has been promoted: to the post of US ambassador to the UN.

Yesterday Bush pushed his nomination through by means of a " recess

appointment " : an undemocratic power that allows him to override Congress

when its members are on holiday.

 

Bush wanted to destroy the treaty because it couldn't be reconciled with

his new plans. Last month the Senate approved an initial $4m for

research into a " robust nuclear earth penetrator " (RNEP). This is a bomb

with a yield about 10 times that of the Hiroshima device, designed to

blow up underground bunkers that might contain weapons of mass

destruction. (You've spotted the contradiction.) Congress rejected

funding for it in November, but Bush twisted enough arms this year to

get it restarted. You see what a wonderful world he inhabits when you

discover that the RNEP idea was conceived in 1991 as a means of dealing

with Saddam Hussein's biological and chemical weapons. Saddam is pacing

his cell, but the Bushites, like the Japanese soldiers lost in Malaysia,

march on. To pursue his war against the phantom of the phantom of

Saddam's weapons of mass destruction, Bush has destroyed the treaty that

prevents the use of real ones.

 

It gets worse. Last year Congress allocated funding for something called

the " reliable replacement warhead " . The government's story is that the

existing warheads might be deteriorating. When they show signs of ageing

they can be dismantled and rebuilt to a " safer and more reliable "

design. It's a pretty feeble excuse for building a new generation of

nukes, but it worked. The development of the new bombs probably means

the US will also breach the comprehensive test ban treaty - so we can

kiss goodbye to another means of preventing proliferation.

 

But the biggest disaster was Bush's meeting with Manmohan Singh a

fortnight ago. India is one of three states that possess nuclear weapons

and refuse to sign the non-proliferation treaty (NPT). The treaty says

India should be denied access to civil nuclear materials. But on July 18

Bush announced that " as a responsible state with advanced nuclear

technology, India should acquire the same benefits and advantages as

other such states " . He would " work to achieve full civil nuclear energy

cooperation with India " and " seek agreement from Congress to adjust US

laws and policies " . Four months before the meeting the US lifted its

south Asian arms embargo, selling Pakistan a fleet of F-16 aircraft,

capable of a carrying a wide range of missiles, and India an

anti-missile system. As a business plan, it's hard to fault.

 

Here then is how it works. If you acquire the bomb and threaten to use

it you will qualify for American exceptionalism by proxy. Could there be

a greater incentive for proliferation?

 

The implications have not been lost on other states. " India is looking

after its own national interests, " a spokesman for the Iranian

government complained on Wednesday. " We cannot criticise them for this.

But what the Americans are doing is a double standard. On the one hand

they are depriving an NPT member from having peaceful technology, but at

the same time they are cooperating with India, which is not a member of

the NPT. " North Korea (and this is the only good news around at the

moment) is currently in its second week of talks with the US. While the

Bush administration is doing the right thing by engaging with Pyongyang,

the lesson is pretty clear. You could sketch it out as a Venn diagram.

If you have oil and aren't developing a bomb (Iraq) you get invaded. If

you have oil and are developing a bomb (Iran) you get threatened with

invasion, but it probably won't happen. If you don't have oil, but have

the bomb, the US representative will fly to your country and open

negotiations.

 

The world of George Bush's imagination comes into being by government

decree. As a result of his tail-chasing paranoia, assisted by Blair's cowardice and Manmohan Singh's opportunism, the global restraint

on the development of nuclear weapons has, in effect, been destroyed in

a few months. The world could now be more vulnerable to the consequences

of proliferation than it has been for 35 years. Thanks to Bush and

Blair, we might not go out with a whimper after all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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