One in Six Countries Facing Food Shortage

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http://www.truthout.org/issues_05/063005EA.shtml

 

One in Six Countries Facing Food Shortage

By John Vidal and Tim Radford

The Guardian UK

 

Thursday 30 June 2005

 

One in six countries in the world face food shortages this year

because of severe droughts that could become semi-permanent under

climate change, UN scientists warned yesterday.

 

In a stark message for world leaders who meet in Gleneagles next

week to discuss global warming, Wulf Killman, chairman of the UN food

and agriculture organisation's climate change group, said the droughts

that have devastated crops across Africa, central America and

south-east Asia in the past year are part of an emerging pattern.

 

" Africa is our greatest worry, " he said. " Many countries are

already in difficulties ... and we see a pattern emerging. Southern

Africa is definitely becoming drier and everyone agrees that the

climate there is changing. We would expect areas which are already

prone to drought to become drier with climate change. "

 

The food and agriculture organisation and the US government, both

of which monitor global food shortages, agree that 34 countries are

now experiencing droughts and food shortages and others could join

them. Up to 30 million people will need assistance because of the

droughts and other natural disasters such as the Asian tsunami.

 

The worst affected countries include Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Malawi,

Eritrea and Zambia, a group of countries where at least 15 million

people will go hungry without aid. The situation in Niger, Djibouti

and Sudan is reported to be deteriorating rapidly. Many countries have

had their worst harvests in more than 10 years and are experiencing

their third or fourth severe drought in a few years, the UN said.

 

Climate change could also trigger the growth of deserts in

southern Africa. A report published in Nature today predicts that as

greenhouse gases fuel global warming, the dunes of the Kalahari could

begin to spread. By 2099, shifting sands could be blowing across huge

tracts of Botswana, Angola, Zimbabwe and western Zambia. Much of the

region was covered by shifting dunes more than 4,000 years ago.

 

" Dunes are composed of soft sand. If you sift away their

protective vegetation cover, and there is enough energy in the wind,

then that sediment has the potential to move, especially if it is

dry, " said David Thomas, of the University of Oxford.

 

" In western Zambia there are quite a lot of these ancient sand

dunes. They were quite active 4,000 years ago, which isn't long in

geological terms. There have been plenty of times when it has not been

a great place to live. "

 

Severe droughts have also badly affected crops in Cuba, Cambodia,

Australia, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Morocco, Guatemala, Honduras and

Nicaragua. According to the UN's famine early warning system, 16

countries, including Peru, Ecuador and Lesotho, face " unfavourable

prospects " with current crops.

 

In Europe, one of the worst droughts on record has hit Spain and

Portugal and halved some crop yields. Both countries have applied to

the EU for food assistance. In Morocco the same regional drought has

devastated farming and the government fears an influx of people into

the cities.

 

Researchers are reporting a general drying of the land and growth

of desertification in the Mediterranean region. " The 20-year average

clearly shows a dramatic increase of desertification and drought, "

said a leading agricultural economist, Professor Giovanni Quaranta, of

the University of Basilicata in southern Italy.

 

Henri Josserand, the UN's famine early warning system director,

said: " In southern Africa especially, there is no question that

drought has become much more frequent in the past few years. There has

been a sequence of drought years for four or five years. What is

unusual is the repeat patterns " .

 

The situation in Malawi and Zimbabwe is giving particular cause

for concern.

 

In Malawi, where a government report suggests more more than

430,000 tonnes of maize will be needed to avert the second food

shortage in three years, one in three people are expected to need help

by the end of the year following poor rains. Thousands of people died

in 2002-03 in what became known as a " hidden famine " , which affected

the poorest and remotest people.

 

" It's going to get rapidly worse and we will have to move

substantial amounts of food very fast, " said one non-governmental

group working in the worst-hit southern region of Malawi.

 

In Zimbabwe, where the effects of drought have been exacerbated by

a deteriorating political situation, 4 million people may need help

this year, the US government's famine early warning system showed.

 

" In all rural districts of Zimbabwe, crop production was poor and

well below normal, " said a report last week.

 

UN sources suggest that getting food to the country will not be

difficult because neighbouring South Africa had a surplus this year,

but distribution in the politically volatile circumstances may be hard.

 

A report by Britain's leading development and environment groups

this week backed the UN studies that suggest Africa will most feel the

effects of drought and desertification under climate change, and will

experience continued food shortages.

 

" Africa is more exposed to the impacts of climate change than many

other regions in the world. Climate change is happening, and it is

affecting livelihoods that depend on the natural environment, which,

in Africa, means nearly everyone, " said Andrew Simms, spokesman for

the World Development Movement.

 

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