U.S. ELECTION:Democracy in Question (STOCKHOLM)

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Wed, 24 Nov 2004 23:25:27 -0500

U.S. ELECTION:Democracy in Question

 

Inter Press Service News Agency

http://www.ipsnews.net/interna.asp?idnews=26334

 

U.S. ELECTION:

Democracy in Question

 

Ritt Goldstein

 

John Zogby, president of the polling firm Zogby International, told

IPS he has been calling it " the Armageddon election " for about a year.

Independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader believes the Republican

Party was able to " steal it before election day. "

 

STOCKHOLM, Nov 18 (IPS) - Facts suggest something went very wrong on

Nov. 2.

 

Speculation focuses upon a number of questions -- purposeful

miscounts, anomalies surrounding electronic voting (e-voting)

machines, particularly the optical scan types; and numerous reports of

voting " irregularities " in heavily Democratic areas.

 

" What they 'do' is minorities, " Nader said, highlighting the thrust of

Republican efforts, " and make sure that there aren't enough voting

machines for the minority areas. They have to wait in line ... for

hours, and most of them don't. There are all kinds of ways, and that's

why I was quoted as saying, " this election was hijacked from A to Z, "

Nader told IPS.

 

Zogby was concerned about the difference between some of the exit

polls (surveys of individuals who have just cast ballots) and the

official vote counts. " We're talking about the Free World here, " he

pointedly noted.

 

On Nov. 10, University of Pennsylvania Professor Steven F Freeman,

whose expertise includes " research methods, " compiled an analysis

entitled 'The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy'. The document was

prepared in view of the unusually large differences between what exit

polls had predicted and the recorded vote tallies.

 

His findings suggest Democratic challenger Senator John Kerry should

have received far more votes than he did.

 

In three of the key battleground states -- Florida, Ohio and

Pennsylvania -- Freeman's analysis states the odds of Kerry receiving

the percentage of votes recorded, given the exit poll findings, were

less than three in one thousand, per state.

 

Freeman also determined that the odds of any two of these states

simultaneously reaching their stated vote tallies were " on the order

of one-in-a-million, " and the odds of all three states arriving at the

vote counts they did " are 250 million to one. "

 

" Something is definitely wrong, " said Zogby.

 

Highlighting both the expected accuracy of exit polls and the

significant disparity that Kerry's defeat illustrated, Republican

consultant, commentator and Fox-TV News regular Dick Morris wrote an

article, 'Those Faulty Exit Polls Were Sabotage', suggesting a

pollster conspiracy to swing the election for Kerry.

 

In doing so he, perhaps inadvertently, provided ammunition for

arguments from the opposite side -- that the exit polls were correct

but the final results were fudged. " Exit polls are almost never

wrong, " argued Morris, and in 10 of the 11 key states they had

predicted significantly fewer votes for Republican President George W

Bush than he was eventually credited with.

 

In New Hampshire, Bush tallied a surprising 9.5 percent more votes

than predicted, the most significant difference in any of the key states.

 

Morris observed that outside the United States, exit polls are often

used to provide a check on official vote counts, in his words, " to

foreclose the possibility of finagling with the returns. "

 

Among the most cited exit polls were those conducted by Mitofsky

International, whose founder, Warren Mitofsky, is widely credited with

having invented exit polling. Zogby, whose firm was not among those

that provided network TV coverage of the Nov. 2 election, described

the possibility of either incompetence or fraud causing the

controversial deviation as " impossible. "

 

According to Zogby, it would have required " wrong sampling in wrong

areas throughout the country, " or the purposeful manipulation of data

to obtain exit poll results so significantly different from the

official totals. He viewed neither as a possibility.

 

When asked what exactly had happened then, Zogby replied, " a problem,

but I don't know where it is ... something's wrong here, though. "

 

On Nov. 5, Nader requested a hand recount of New Hampshire ballots,

subsequently telling IPS he had " reports of irregularities there, and

we have the cooperation of the state government ... the state

attorney-general and secretary of state. "

 

Nader also said his headquarters had been flooded with requests for

assistance from a number of states.

 

On Thursday, five of the 11 New Hampshire voting wards where Nader

requested a recount will undertake new tallies. According to his

staff, all 11 wards had their votes counted with optical scan

machines, primarily the AccuVote models made by Diebold.

 

" If there are irregularities, it may have broader applications in

other states, " Nader said, adding that the current recount -- a

45,000-vote sample -- is expected to be completed within a week.

 

Allegations regarding optical scan machines' potentially allowing the

manipulation of Florida's vote have been widely reported. In Ohio, the

Green and Libertarian parties are pursuing a recount, numerous

instances of voting irregularities having been reported there.

 

" As far as I'm concerned, this election was clearly stolen. What they

did in Ohio was systematically deny thousands of African Americans,

and other suspected Democrats, the vote, " charged progressive author,

commentator and activist Harvey Wasserman of Franklin County, Ohio.

 

" It was like Mississippi in the fifties, and it was deliberate ... had

there been enough (voting) machines, and had people equal access to

the polls with a reliable vote count, there is no doubt that John

Kerry would have carried Ohio, " he told IPS.

 

The Nov. 14 'Cleveland Plain Dealer', one of the country's top 50

broadsheets, reported a Nov. 13 voter hearing where: " For three hours,

burdened voters, one after another, offered sworn testimony about

election day voter suppression and irregularities that they believe

are threatening democracy. "

 

" People are deeply concerned that this is the end of American

democracy, that we cannot get a fair election, " Wasserman said,

poignantly adding, " there was no question of apathy in this election

-- we had more volunteers than could be used ... thousands and

thousands of grass-roots volunteers. "

 

If Kerry had taken Ohio, he would have taken the presidency.

 

" In the end, what Nader is doing in New Hampshire is the best answer.

And if there's a recount in Ohio, " that is also important, said

Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin-Madison political

scientist who specialises in statistical methods, elections and public

opinion.

 

Somewhat concerned about the possible manipulation of e-voting

machines, Franklin was more concerned over " the ordinary

administration of elections, " citing the simple logistical problems

that had plagued voters.

 

He pointedly noted that the last two presidential elections

highlighted " how the decisions of local people (officials) ... can

have a considerable influence over who gets to vote, what rules govern. "

 

When asked if he was aware of any parallels to the present election,

Zogby replied, " I'm certainly aware of the election of 1960. "

 

" It's been discussed, overtly, the roll that Richard Daley, and the

roll that Lyndon Johnson played, separately, " Zogby said, referring to

an episode where the John F Kennedy campaign had supposedly asked,

" How many votes do you have? " , the reply allegedly being, " How many

votes do you need? "

 

Of course, such examples also serve to highlight the influence " local

people " can exert on an election's outcome.

 

In the end, many people speculated that the 1960 incidents were not

part of a grand conspiracy per se, but the cumulative effects of the

actions of a number of individuals who shared a similar perspective,

acted semi-independently, and did whatever it took to win.

 

Political " dirty tricks " culminated in the Watergate scandal, forcing

then President Richard Nixon (1969-1974) to resign, ushering in a long

era without similar illicit activity, until questions raised by the

election of 2000.

 

With American democracy, until now, providing an effective model for

many, as Zogby said, " we're talking

about the Free World here. " (END/2004)

 

* U.S. ELECTION: Unease Over E-Voting

* Link to Freeman Analysis

* Ralph Nader

* Zogby International

* Democratic Underground Reports of Irregularities

* Harvey Wasserman

*

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Freedom is when the people can speak, democracy is when the government

listens. - - Alistair Farrugia

 

" The core of our American democracy is the right to vote. Implicit in

that right is the notion that that vote be private, that vote be

secure, and that vote be counted as it was intended when it was cast

by the voter. And I think what we're encountering is a pivotal moment

in our democracy where all of that is being called into question. " -

-Kevin Shelley, CA Sec. of State

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can

change the world. Indeed, it's the only thing that ever has. - -

Margaret Mead