Progress Report: It Takes More Than A Date

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Tue, 23 Nov 2004 08:42:29 -0800

Progress Report: It Takes More Than A Date

" American Progress Action Fund "

<progress

 

 

by Christy Harvey, Judd Legum and Jonathan Baskin

 

November 23, 2004

 

IRAQ It Takes More Than A Date

THE DOLLAR Deficit Disorder

UNDER THE RADAR Go Beyond The Headlines

 

IRAQ

It Takes More Than A Date

 

This weekend, Iraq's Independent Electoral Commission announced the

nation would hold elections on January 30. There are serious obstacles

still to be overcome to meet that objective. Flawed or delayed

elections would be a significant blow to Iraq's stability and threaten

civil war. USA Today writes, " Analysts who have studied the Iraqi

elections process cite worsening violence, logistical problems as

mundane as printing and distributing ballots on time, and the fear

that many of the nation's potent Sunni Muslim minority will boycott

the polls, undermining the legitimacy of the vote. " Daniel Serwer, of

the U.S. Institute of Peace, concurs, saying, " What you've got here is

a very tight schedule that would be difficult to meet even under ideal

circumstances. It's just not clear if it can physically be done. "

 

SECURITY CONCERNS: William Taylor, the director of reconstruction at

the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, admits security in the Sunni Triangle and

the northern city of Mosul is worse than it was six weeks ago, adding

he was worried that in some areas " it would now be difficult to have

elections. " Air Force Lt. Gen. Lance Smith, deputy commander of U.S.

Central Command, agrees, saying, " I will tell you that the

intimidation campaign that is ongoing is very effective. " The

challenge U.S. troops now face is taking the power to intimidate away

from the insurgents, " so that people can freely get out…to vote and

not go back and expect their families to be killed just because they

go out and vote. "

 

LOGISTICAL CONCERNS: Holding an election takes an enormous amount of

logistical planning. Over the next two-and-a-half months, political

parties must register, candidate lists have to be certified, ballots

must be printed and distributed to 28,000 polling places, and

candidates must campaign. Registration has been delayed in many parts

of the country over the past few weeks, however, as about 90 of the

country's 540 registration centers were shut down due to potential

violence. Also, the U.N. presence in the country is cripplingly

limited; " in contrast to Afghanistan's October elections, for which

the U.N. deployed 266 election workers, there are only 10 U.N.

staffers now in Iraq, a number expected to increase to 25 in December. "

 

MORE IRAQI TROOPS NEEDED: Security on January 30 is crucial to

ensuring legitimate election results. The White House has said it

plans to rely on Iraqi security forces to protect Iraq's 9,000 polling

places. There still is, however, a drastic shortage of trained Iraqi

security officers. The New York Times reports, " American commanders

say that only 145,000 Iraqi security personnel will be trained and

ready by election day…far short of the 270,000 that Iraqi officials

say are needed. "

 

MILITARY COMMANDERS SAY MORE U.S. TROOPS NEEDED: Senior military

commanders in Iraq say it is " increasingly likely " more U.S. troops

are needed in Iraq in order to secure remaining areas of resistance. A

substantial number of Marines and Army troops are currently tied up

for weeks in securing Fallujah and overseeing the town's

reconstruction, leaving a limited number of forces available for

routing out insurgents in other areas. The exact number of additional

troops necessary is unknown, reports the Washington Post, but it is

estimated to be between 3,000 and 5,000 soldiers. These new troops

could come by extending the stay of more soldiers or by accelerating

the deployment of divisions in the United States; the Pentagon has

already ordered about 6,500 soldiers to extend their tours by up to

two months

 

THE DOLLAR

Deficit Disorder

 

President Bush's reckless fiscal policies, combined with a dollar

edging towards a dangerous " free fall, " are imperiling America's

economy. The weak dollar would be little cause for alarm had President

Bush's first term tax cuts not " driven the government's budget deficit

to record levels. " But if foreign bankers, who finance most of

America's debt, continue to lose confidence in the Bush

administration's ability to pay down that deficit, they could stop

investing in our economy. Once that happens, the market for U.S.

dollars would dry up, causing the dollar's value to fall further and

faster. At that point, to attract investment, America would be forced

to raise interest rates, slowing America's economy and making it even

harder to pay down the debt. (Put the dollar's decline in perspective

with this new column from American Progress's Christian Weller.)

 

FOREIGN LEADERS SKEPTICAL OF BUSH: To minimize the risk of an abrupt

crash in the dollar, President Bush needs to convince the world he is

serious about reducing the debt. But the world is skeptical. Last

week, as Congress finalized plans to raise America's debt ceiling for

the third time in three years, Bush told a summit of CEO's in Chile

that he was committed to reducing the deficit. The remarks were not

well-received. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder " openly criticized

the U.S. " for its inability to trim its " twin deficit…the current

account deficit and the budget deficit. " London currency specialist

Monica Fan said Bush's pledge didn't " amount to anything more than

political posturing. " Another European economist said the dollar's

accelerated decline since the Nov. 2 election reflected concern that

Bush's " emphasis on tax cuts " would prevent him from reining in deficits.

 

GREENSPAN WARNS DEFICIT COULD DESTABILIZE ECONOMY: The complaints

haven't all come from foreign economists. The administration's own

Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, warned this week that " The

persistence of bloated U.S. trade deficits over time can pose a risk

to the U.S. economy. " So far, Greenspan said, foreigners have been

willing to lend the U.S. money to finance the current account

imbalances, but " at some point foreigners might suddenly lose interest

in holding dollar-denominated investments. That could cause foreigners

to unload investments in U.S. stocks and bonds, sending their prices

plunging and interest rates soaring. "

 

MADE IN CHINA: The Bush administration's inability to pay down the

deficit is subjecting America's economy to the whims of foreign

leaders. " Right now, our whole country's on life-support from Beijing

and Tokyo, " said Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff. As the dollar

continues to weaken, Schiff said, " China might decide it's best to cut

us off this welfare scheme and start spending the money on their own

citizens. " Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach adds, " The day will

come when foreign investors simply say 'no' to this arrangement.

That's when the dollar collapses, US interest rates soar, and the

stock market plunges. Under such a crisis scenario, a US recession

would be all but inevitable. " The Guardian reports the Chinese – the

number one financer of American debt – are already " losing their

appetite for US holdings. "

 

BACK TO THE FUTURE: Some experts insist the current decline of the

dollar is " eerily similar to a decline in the 1970s that touched off

the worst period of growth the United States experienced since World

War II. " Then, as now, the dollar declined at a time of " high budget

and trade deficits, low interest rates, high oil prices and

ever-increasing military spending. " By the end of that decade, " the

nation was suffering double-digit rates in inflation, mortgages and

unemployment. "

 

 

Under the Radar

 

MEDIA – MISPLACED PRIORITIES: The San Francisco Chronicle ombudsman

Dick Rodgers counted fourteen Page 1 stories this year which focused

on baseball star Barry Bonds and 31 on the Scott Peterson murder case,

but just three front page stories on the genocide in Sudan. Over the

last seven months, 50,000 people have died in the African nation.

Managing Editor Robert Rosenthal said the paucity of coverage of the

Sudanese crisis could be attributed to " the fact that it [the genocide

in Sudan] has 'flowed' rather than exploded onto the front pages in

big, headline-grabbing bursts. " In somewhat of an understatement,

Rogers called the paper's coverage " imbalanced. " Learn more about the

Sudan crisis here.

 

IRAQ – CASUALTIES VASTLY UNDERSTATED: As many as 15,000 soldiers who

have been injured in Iraq have been left off the official casualty

count because their injuries were not sustained as a result of enemy

fire. CBS News reports while most of these injuries are not life

threatening, " only 20 percent return to their units in Iraq. Among the

80 percent who don't return are GIs who suffered crushing bone

fractures; scores of spinal injuries; heart problems by the hundreds;

and a slew of psychiatric cases. " John Pike, director of a research

group called GlobalSecurity.org, said these injuries aren't included

in the official count in an effort to " minimiz[e] the apparent cost of

the war " and " sustain public support here at home. "

 

CORPORATE – WAL-MART TREATS CHINESE WORKERS BETTER: Wal-Mart has

fiercely resisted unionization efforts at its stores in the United

States. The Financial Times reports, however, " Wal-Mart, the world's

largest retailer, said on Tuesday it would agree to establish unions

in its 40-odd Chinese stores. " In a statement, Wal-Mart said, " Should

associates request the formation of a union, Wal-Mart China would

respect their wishes. " Wal-Mart has consistently intimidated U.S.

workers who have attempted to form a union.

 

HEALTH CARE – BAYER MARKETED PRODUCT IT KNEW WAS UNSAFE: USA Today

reports that Baycol – a cholesterol drug manufactured by Bayer which

was pulled from the market in 2001 – " had a substantially higher risk

of a serious side effect than three top-selling competitors. " Those

who took Baycol " were far more likely to be hospitalized with a rare,

serious muscle disorder " than those taking similar drugs. Worse, Bayer

" had 'high-quality' information in early 2000 that the drug was more

dangerous than Lipitor [a similar drug] but did not make the data

public. " In light of the Baycol scandal – and similar problems

involving the prescription pain reliever Vioxx – the Journal of the

American Medical Association has recommended " establishing an

'independent drug safety board' to track the safety of drugs and

medical devices after they were approved and in widespread use. " Under

the current system – which JAMA believes is inadequate – " drug makers

are the ones who collect and evaluate most of the information on side

effects from their own products and then report it to the F.D.A. "

 

VALUES – THE SCOURGE OF EROTOTOXINS: The Internet has become a vast

" drug-delivery system, " addicting America's youth to the " erototoxins "

produced by pornographic images, according to experts testifying

before the Senate Commerce Committee's Science, Technology and Space

Subcommittee last Thursday. Mary Anne Layden of the University of

Pennsylvania claimed that pornography has surpassed crack cocaine and

heroin to become the " most concerning thing to psychological health …

existing today. " Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) explained the hearing was

necessary because pornography " was ubiquitous now, compared to when he

was growing up and 'some guy would sneak a magazine in somewhere and

show some of us, but you had to find him at the right time.' "

 

IRAQ - THE NEOCON RETREAT: Faced with an ongoing and increasingly

violent war, many neoconservatives are now pushing for deep cuts in

the U.S. presence in Iraq. Before the war, these hawks were the

loudest supporters of war, fiercely arguing to send American troops to

invade Iraq. As neocon war supporter Max Boot now admits, " This is

turning out to be a lot harder than anyone expected—and harder than it

needed to be. " Ken Adelman, a member of the Defense Policy Board who

predicted the Iraq war would be a " cakewalk, " now says he would " be

okay " with bringing troops home after a more stable government is put

in place in January. (Thanks to the neocons, that dream of a stable

election in Iraq may be just a little more elusive; their former

protégé and Pentagon darling Ahmad Chalabi is currently in talks with

militant anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr about creating an

alternate ticket complete with a " vocal anti-American platform. " )