Votergate 2004; We Don't Need Paper to Prove Fraud, But We Do Need Money and Lea

[Guest guest]

http://www.opednews.com/drobny_110904_election_investigation.htm

 

Votergate 2004; We Don't Need Paper to Prove Fraud, But We Do Need

Money and Leadership, NOW.

 

BY SHELDON DROBNY

 

Since last Tuesday there has been a justifiable uproar about the major

differences between the exit polls in Ohio and Florida and the actual

results. Democrats and Republicans, who both saw the same exit polls

that showed an electoral landslide in favor of Kerry, have confirmed

this. Investigative reporter Bob Parry confirmed from his sources

that the Bush campaign was convinced they were going to lose. George

H. W. Bush also confirmed this in an interview with The Today Show.

So why have the exit polls been so wrong in the last two elections?

It is clear that there must have been manipulation in the voting machines.

 

While there's been a lot of talk of problems with not having paper

trails, computer fraud is uncovered most of the time without paper trails.

 

As a former C.P.A and auditor, I have used statistical sampling

throughout my career with great confidence. With electronic record

keeping, it's easy to create a program to falsify the books. But

there are ways to uncover that. Auditors have developed statistical

ways to cut right through corruption in companies. You don't even

need a paper trail. These statistical approaches can be used with

almost 100% accuracy to uncover fraud.

 

With the votergate 2004 it's a numbers game just like it is with

corporate accounting, even easier. All you're talking about is one

number-- total votes for each candidate.

 

There's a huge difference between polling what WILL happen and

polling something that has already happened. The reliability of

polling something that has already happened is highly reliable vs.

predictive polls, like Gallup or Zogby, which is very risky. The

reliability can be, not plus or minus 4 percent as we see with

predictive poplls, but rather a much more reliable plus or minus one

half or one tenth of one percent with exit polls, because those are

based on asking people who already voted. I would even say that if

the exit polling were done in the key precincts of Florida and Ohio,

which it was, then these results should be practically " bullet proof. "

 

It is important that people know how accurate random sampling of

historical events can be in order for them to understand how unlikely

it is that the exit polls were wrong. So if you want to fight the

battle correctly, you must get more statisticians and forensic

accountants involved as well as the lawyers. These statisticians can

show with great credibility the probability of manipulation within the

computer programs used for counting the ballots. They do this kind of

work all the time to uncover fraud based upon computer manipulation in

commercial and corporate activities. And these types of expert

analyses are admissible in a court of law.

 

The problem with all of this is determining who is going to fund such

an investigation. Where will the money come from?

 

Perhaps the Kerry/Edwards campaign fund has some surplus that can be

used. It is possible that the DNC has some excess funds. How about

the 527s and PACs who spent millions on ineffective political ads,

coming up with a few million? In addition, who is going to lead the

process of getting this done? This kind of an effort requires

solidarity along with an organized coordinated effort. It's easy to

come up with the forensic and technical people to get this done, but

we need a strong leader and solidarity. Leadership and funding-- these

are the two real challenges that must be dealt with in the coming days.

 

We have a Watergate story here that could give the media a post

election explosive news story that could make the 2000 Florida vote

debacle look like small potatoes. We need to get the media to see that

votergate 2004 is huge news and we need to quickly fund the

investigation and get Democratic leaders behind it.

 

Sheldon Drobny is CPA and Venture Capitalist and co-founder of Air

America Radio; email at sdrobny