Dangerous Levels of Toxic Gases Found in Atmosphere

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Friday, October 15, 2004

Dangerous Levels of Toxic Gases Found in Atmosphere (11:32 am)

 

This is a story (for once) unrelated to emissions from the two

major-party candidates for President: The Guardian is reporting that,

for the second year in a row, levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the

atmosphere have risen by over 2 parts per million. This is unusual for

two reasons: first, there has been no precipitating natural or

man-made disaster to cause the levels to rise so quickly; second, that

it happened for the second year in a row indicates that the

measurement is not entirely anomalous.

 

One of the most disturbing explanations for what has happened is that

the Earth's carbon sinks have become at least partially saturated.

These sinks, which include the oceans, forests and other vegetation,

and organic material in the soil, are what prevent CO2 from building

up to dangerously high concentrations in the atmosphere, by absorbing

and storing most of it. They're an essential last line of defense

against the greenhouse effect, and the suggestion that CO2 levels are

rising more rapidly than normal with no obvious and immediate cause is

extremely serious. Previously, it had been expected that they would

only become saturated in several decades' time.

 

It should be noted that this is all just supposition. Though 2001-2002

was the first non-El Niño year to see an increase in CO2 levels above

2 ppm (El Niño is significant because it warms the oceans, and warm

oceans emit rather than absorb CO2), and 2002-2003 was the second such

year, representing the first time since measurements began that a

greater-than-2 ppm increase was sustained for over a year, there could

still be any number of explanations that don't involve carbon sinks

becoming saturated. 2 years in this case is not enough time to come to

a conclusive finding, one way or another, about CO2 levels.

 

But it is enough to cause worry, especially since it indicates that

the " tipping point " may have been reached, at which we would expect to

see more rapid increases of CO2 levels in the atmosphere in coming

years. Once that tipping point is reached, the Earth may enter a

feedback loop where, as is explained quite nicely in this Independent

story,

 

global warming causes alterations to the earth's natural systems

and then, in turn, causes the warming to increase even more rapidly

than before.

 

Such a development would mean the worldwide droughts, agricultural

failure, sea-level rise, increased weather turbulence and flooding all

predicted as consequences of climate change would arrive on much

shorter time-scales than present scenarios suggest, and the world

would have much less time to co-ordinate its response.

 

 

Ultimately, this increase should serve as notice that the time when we

could ignore such easy and effective solutions as improved

fuel-efficiency standards has passed us by. And as this article in The

New Republic by Gregg Easterbrook notes, the differences between

George Bush and John Kerry on this issue are stark:

 

A 2001 National Academy of Sciences study says that overall

mileage can be improved by about one-third, using existing technology,

without sacrificing safety or comfort and without forcing people into

tiny, crash-vulnerable cars. But, when the Academy released its

findings, Bush shelved the subject, employing the time-honored dodge

of requesting further study. Kerry, in contrast, offered legislation

to implement the improvement.

 

The Kerry-McCain proposal, introduced in March 2002, raised the

federal MPG standard for new vehicles by one-third and dropped the

loopholes that allow SUVs and pickups to meet lower standards than

regular cars or to avoid standards entirely.

 

 

If the saturated carbon sink-theory is true, though, we may need to do

more than just raise mile-per-gallon standards in the years to come,

if we want to keep the Earth habitable for future generations.