The Progress Report: SEPTEMBER 28, 2004

[Guest guest]

THE PROGRESS REPORT

 

by Christy Harvey, Judd Legum and Jonathan Baskin

SEPTEMBER 28, 2004

 

IRAQ Accurate Intelligence Ignored

SUDAN 'Not On My Watch'

 

UNDER THE RADAR Go Beyond The Headlines

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IRAQ

Accurate Intelligence Ignored

 

Last week, President Bush dismissed a bleak assessment on Iraq

prepared in July by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) as " just

guessing as to what the conditions might be like. " (Bush later said he

should have used the word " estimate " instead, but continues to insist

that Iraq is on a path of steady success. Note to media: please ignore

this vacillation when discussing the president's " clarity " and

" resolve. " ) But the record shows that estimates on postwar Iraq

prepared by the NIC – a group White House Press Secretary Scott

McClellan dismissed as pessimists and naysayers – have been

extraordinarily accurate. An NIC report prepared two months before the

war began, and first reported in the New York Times this morning,

" warned of a possible insurgency against the new Iraqi government or

American-led forces, saying that rogue elements from Saddam Hussein's

government could work with existing terrorist groups or act

independently to wage guerrilla warfare. " The report also warned that

a war " would increase sympathy across the Islamic world for some

terrorist objectives. " Twenty months later, " the warnings about

anti-American sentiment and instability appear to have been upheld by

events. "

 

BUSH POLICIES HAVE MADE US MORE VULNERABLE: Speaking yesterday at

George Washington University, Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) said, " The Bush

administration's failure to shut down al-Qaida and rebuild Iraq have

fueled the insurgency and made the United States more vulnerable to a

nuclear attack by terrorists. " Kennedy said the shift in attention

from al Qaeda to Iraq " has made the mushroom cloud more likely, not

less likely. "

 

BUSH NUMBERS DON'T ADD UP: On Thursday, President Bush claimed that

" nearly 100,000 fully trained and equipped Iraqi soldiers, police

officers, and other security personnel are working today. " But last

Monday, the Pentagon said that " only about 53,000 of the 100,000

Iraqis on duty have now undergone training. " According to Pentagon

documents obtained by Reuters, of the 90,000 in the police force " only

8,169 have received full training. " The White House, inexplicably,

stands by its 100,000 figure.

 

INSURGENCY IS PRIMARILY IRAQI: President Bush has long insisted that

Iraq is now the central battle in the global war on terrorism. But,

according to the U.S. military's own assessment, " the Iraqi insurgency

remains primarily a home-grown problem. " (Even as scores of foreign

terrorists pour across the border.) According to top military

officials, " loyalists of Saddam Hussein's regime — who have swelled

their ranks in recent months as ordinary Iraqis bristle at the U.S.

military presence in Iraq — represent the far greater threat to the

country's fragile 3-month-old government " than foreign fighters.

According to the U.S. military, " Iraqi officials tended to exaggerate

the number of foreign fighters in Iraq to obscure the fact that large

numbers of their countrymen have taken up arms against U.S. troops and

the American-backed interim Iraqi government. "

 

IRAQ TOO DANGEROUS FOR ELECTIONS: In an interview with the French

newspaper Le Figaro, Jordan's King Abdullah – one of the Bush

administration's closest allies – said, " it appears to me impossible

to organize indisputable elections in the chaos currently reigning in

Iraq. " Abdullah stressed that " partial elections which excluded cities

such as Falluja could isolate Sunni Muslims, saying that could create

even deeper divisions in the country. " Last week, " Defense Secretary

Donald Rumsfeld raised the possibility that elections could be

excluded from dangerous parts of the country. " Read American Progress'

Iraq election checklist.

 

SUDAN

'Not On My Watch'

 

Representatives from about 30 countries and international

organizations are meeting in Oslo today to talk about Sudan.

Hopefully, they will pledge support for civilian protection and

provide funding for an expanded African Union (AU) mission in Darfur.

But with the situation continuing to deteriorate, what is needed is

less talk and more action. The U.N. has acknowledged the humanitarian

disaster in Darfur, and threatened sanctions, but such symbolic steps

have done little to stop the killing. Unfortunately, the international

community, led by an America which is " preoccupied in Iraq, " has so

far been unwilling to do much more than issue tough statements and

veiled threats. There is even evidence the international community's

cautious denunciations are making things worse. Check out American

Progress' new Web site, " Sudan: A Challenge for All. "

 

IRAQ HAMSTRINGS POLICY: The Bush administration has been vocal in

denouncing the violence, but with America's troops, money and moral

authority tied up in Iraq, it has been difficult for the U.S. to put

much substance behind its words. So far this year, the U.S. government

has provided $174,866,722 to Darfur – or, about what we spend each day

in Iraq. On Thursday, the U.S. Senate approved up to $680 million in

aid, but even that move highlighted the extent to which the war has

hamstrung American foreign policy, as some of that money had to be

shifted from funds earmarked for rebuilding Iraq. " Under the Senate

legislation, the extra funds from the Iraq account would be available

only if President Bush requested them. "

 

THE LATEST FROM DARFUR: Under a largely ineffectual threat from the

U.N. Security Council, the Sudanese government continues to insist it

is " doing all it can to calm Darfur and says it is ready to welcome

home " more than 1.4 million villagers who have been uprooted by

government-backed militias. But, according to AP reports, " the few who

do trickle back find whole villages and tribes on the move, seeking

safety from attacks. " The situation underscores the inability of the

same government that sponsored the militias in the first place to stop

the killing now. Yet, so far, this has been the expectation of the

international community. The major powers continue to urge Khartoum to

" 'disarm the Janjaweed,' knowing full well that Khartoum funded and

armed the militia and continues to do so. " The latest count places the

death toll at between 50,000 and 80,000.

 

THE GENOCIDE LABEL: Roughly two months after the U.S. Congress said

" genocide " was taking place in Sudan, Secretary of State Colin Powell

declared " that genocide has been committed in Darfur, and that the

government of Sudan and the Janjaweed bear responsibility, and that

genocide may still be occurring. " But as Time Magazine reports,

" professions of outrage are doing nothing to stop the killing.

Immediately after labeling the Janjaweed's slaughter genocide, Powell

told lawmakers, 'No new action is dictated by this

determination'—despite the fact that the international Genocide

Convention, signed by the U.S. and 134 other countries, " legally

obligates signatories to " prevent and to punish " genocide where it is

occurring. Considering " the U.S. use of the G word has done little

more than set off a new round of bureaucratic shuffling, " some

human-rights advocates are concerned that " the significance of the

Convention will be undermined. "

 

BACK IN THE CAMPS: Clearly unable to return home, about 1.2 million

displaced Darfurians are subsisting in overcrowded and insecure

" prisons without walls, " set up hastily by the United Nations.

American Progress' Gayle Smith visited the camps in Geneina. In part

three of her series, " Eyewitness to a Crisis, " she writes, " The

stories told by the residents of the Krinding Camp are repetitive, but

none of the horror is lost in the retelling of their tales – of the

militia attacking at night, of their animals being slaughtered, of the

men, women and children beheaded, stabbed, beaten or left for dead; of

the wells poisoned by corpses and of the torches that set their homes

alight. " With no guarantee of security in and around their homes, the

displaced are " destined to remain in camps for the foreseeable future. "

 

NOT ON MY WATCH: In her book on genocide, " A Problem From Hell, "

Samantha Power recounts how President Bush wrote four words in the

margins of a memo he received on President Clinton's response to the

Rwandan genocide: " Not on my watch. " And yet, just a decade after

close to a million Rwandans lost their lives as the world stood by,

the international response to the unfolding crisis remains

" agonizingly slow. " And, unfortunately, it is happening on President

Bush's watch. The man who urges Americans to " fight evil " and touts

his preference for " action " over deliberation, has offered not one

public speech on Sudan and made no contingency plans, even as the

situation " threatens to become one of the most devastating

humanitarian disasters of our times. " You can take action here.

 

 

Under the Radar

 

HEALTH CARE – NEVER LET THE FACTS GET IN THE WAY OF IDEOLOGY: The

non-partisan Government Accountability Office found " the private plans

had increased out-of-pocket costs for the elderly and had not saved

money for the government. " According the GAO, " Medicare is spending

$650 to $750 a year more for each beneficiary in such private plans

than it would have spent if the same people stayed in traditional

Medicare. " Even after reviewing the report, chief Medicare official

Mark McClellan " insisted that private plans were 'an attractive

option' that would save money and improve coverage for beneficiaries. "

The GAO also found " the administration " exceeded its authority'' by

allowing [private health plans] to limit patients' choices of

providers offering skilled nursing and home health care, dental care

and routine physical examinations. "

 

ERASED IN TRANSLATION: Three years after the 9/11 attacks, " more than

120,000 hours of potentially valuable terrorism-related recordings

have not yet been translated by linguists at the FBI, and computer

problems may have led the bureau to systematically erase some al Qaeda

recordings, according to a declassified summary of a Justice

Department investigation that was released Monday. " Since 9/11, the

FBI has hired hundreds of new linguists, but the new report " made

clear that the expansion had not eliminated the management and

efficiency problems that dogged the bureau even before Sept. 11. " Much

of the blame fell on the FBI's computer systems, which are famously

antiquated and unwieldy. Overhauling the government's translation

capabilities has supposedly been " a top priority for the Bush

administration in its campaign against terrorism. "

 

IT'S THE TAX CUTS, STUPID: " In a departure from public pronouncements

about the federal budget deficit, a senior aide to President Bush said

last week that the record deficits have been caused, in part, by tax

cuts. " Responding to a question on Ask the White House, Communications Dan Bartlett wrote, " The deficit was caused by three things:

lost revenue coming into the treasury due to the recession; funding

increases to fight the war and protect the homeland; and tax relief to

jumpstart our economy. " Administration officials have blamed the

deficits on " extraordinary circumstances, " like 9/11 and the war on

terror, even though government reports say otherwise. A table in the

Office of Management and Budget's midyear review shows that 35 percent

of the total deficit comes from the three tax cuts Congress has

enacted in the last four years.

 

BOB NOVAK'S HYPOCRISY: At a background briefing sanctioned by the CIA

last week, national intelligence officer Paul R. Pillar – whose

identity attendees agreed to keep secret – first discussed the NIC's

pre-war warnings to the Bush administration. Novak, who has adamantly

defended his own right to out a covert CIA agent without naming his

White House source, promptly wrote a column identifying Pillar as the

speaker at the briefing. Novak wrote, " the CIA bureaucracy wants a

license to criticize the president and the former DCI without being

held accountable. "

 

SWINGING INTO ACTION: Just months after a Republican lawmaker in

Michigan publicly mentioned the GOP's strategy to " suppress the

Detroit vote, " election officials in a key swing state stand accused

of endorsing rules that could be harmful to poor or transient voters.

The Dayton Daily News reports, " Ohio Democrats took Republican

Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell to court Monday, charging that

he is trying to limit where some voters may cast their ballots in

violation of the federal Help America Vote Act. " Rules endorsed by

Blackwell would invalidate any votes cast by voters who were

registered in different precincts. Democratic Franklin County

Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy " said the provisional ballot restrictions

hurt Democrats more because low-income voters, who tend to be

Democrats, move more frequently than other voters. "

 

CORRUPTION – EXPLOITING KIDS FOR FUN AND PROFIT: Republican lobbyist

Jack Abramoff has channeled money donated to a charity he ran, Capital

Athletic Foundation, which bills itself as promoting sports-related

programs for kids, to " pet projects having little to do with the

advertised sportsmanship programs, including political causes, a

short-lived religious school and an overseas golf trip. " The charity

also paid " $150,225 for a golf trip to Scotland aboard a private jet. "

The trip included " at least six people – including Abramoff, House

Administration Committee Chairman Robert W. Ney (R-Ohio), lobbyist and

former Christian Coalition leader Ralph Reed, and then-General

Services Administration chief of staff David Safavian. " The charity

was able to collect large sums of money because Abramoff " attached

himself to House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.) and, in so doing,

became a magnet for large sums of money from business interests. " An

Indian tribe told federal investigators, who are now investigating

Abramoff, " that they made the donations because Abramoff told them it

would impress DeLay. " A review of the tax and spending records of the

charity reveals that " less than 1 percent of its revenue has been

spent on sports-related programs for youths. "