Bush's grim poll numbers.

[Guest guest]

If you listen to the news on TV or read the newspapers, you get the

impression that Kerry is losing the fight for the minds of the american people

and that Bush has overwhelming support.

 

Here are some figures that will not be pushed in the news but might rate some

bare mention in a few major media outlets in bits a pieces.

 

In the USA the news is filtered to bend the mind in a very slanted manner. In

the rest of the world where the news is more open or at least also has some

non-spin to choose from, the people have a very different attitude. In Canada

Bush has a favorable rating only somewhere between 15% to 20%. In Europe it is

somewhere between 6% to 15%. In Asia it is also very low. The rest of the world

also has low opinions. In the US where the spin machine runs full blast 24 hours

a day for the right we are at the same time told by the media that we are

subjected to news with a left liberal slant. Huh??? The most outragous lies go

out constantly by the leaders in washington and the media just goes into high

gear to promote them as if they were real.

 

I consider George Bush to be the greatest threat to the health of the american

people ever.

 

I consider him to be the greatest threat to having a healthy nation, to healthy

democracy, to civil liberties, to the health of freedom, or the health of the

free world. I consider him to be the greatest threat to the planet since world

war II. For me it is not about Kerry or even the democrats. I would vote for a

sack of cement if it meant anybody but Bush.

 

The one thing that I cannot understand is even though the american people said

in a poll that only 18% believe that he is " telling the truth " he still has 43

percent of the population at this point still willing to vote for him. To me

that is mind boggling. What does that say about that difference of 25% that

knows that he is lieing and is still willing to vote for him and what kinds of

minds and people are they?

 

Frank

 

 

 

http://slate.msn.com/id/2104745/

 

Bush's grim poll numbers.

By William Saletan

Posted Tuesday, Aug. 3, 2004, at 3:48 PM PT

 

If you've read or watched news reports about polls

taken since the Democratic convention, you've probably

heard that John Kerry didn't get much of a " bounce. "

These reports miss the important data. Let's look at

the numbers.

 

1. What's changed. Three major media polls have been

taken since the convention: ABC News/Washington Post,

CBS News/New York Times, and CNN/USA Today. Prior to

the convention, Kerry's favorable rating was nine

points higher than his unfavorable rating in the ABC

poll. Since the convention, this margin has grown to

19 points. Bush's positive margin on the same question

is just two points.

 

In a CBS poll before the convention, the percentage of

voters who were uneasy about Kerry's ability to handle

an international crisis was 19 points higher than the

percentage who were confident in his ability to handle

such a crisis. After the convention, that margin of

unease has shrunk to 11 points. Bush's negative margin

on the same question is 12 points. In the CBS

pre-convention poll, voters said by a 51-36 margin

that the Democrats did not have a clear plan for the

country. After the convention, they say by a 44-40

margin that the Democrats do have a clear plan.

 

In a CNN poll before the convention, voters agreed by

a 12-point margin that Kerry had " the personality and

leadership qualities a president should have. " After

the convention, the margin is 20—eight points higher

than the margin for Bush on the same question. Before

the convention, by a 51-43 margin, voters trusted Bush

rather than Kerry " to handle the responsibilities of

commander-in-chief of the military. " Now the

candidates are even. Before the convention, more

voters trusted Bush than Kerry " to protect U.S.

citizens from future acts of terrorism. " Now more

voters trust Kerry than trust Bush.

 

Continue Article

 

2. Trial heats. Before the convention, Bush led Kerry

48-46 among registered voters in the ABC poll. After

the convention, Kerry leads 50-44. In the CBS poll,

Kerry turned a 45-42 lead into a 48-43 lead. The

CNN/USA poll goes the other way, boosting Bush from a

47-43 deficit to a 48-47 lead. That's

counterintuitive, given the pro-Kerry media coverage

around the convention. It doesn't square with the CBS

or ABC polls. Nor does it square with an American

Research Group poll, which bumps Kerry from a 47-44

lead to a 49-45 lead, or a Newsweek poll—taken on the

last night of the convention and the night

afterward—which bumps Kerry from 47-44 to 49-42. So my

guess is that the CNN poll is off the mark.

 

Look at the numbers for Kerry in these trial heats:

50, 48, 49, 49. Even in the CNN poll, he's got 47.

Kerry is that close to making a Bush victory

mathematically impossible. And look at Bush's numbers:

44, 43, 45, 42. Even the 48 percent for Bush in the

CNN poll is too low, given how few undecided voters

show up for the incumbent on Election Day.

 

3. Bush's flat line. Look at the data going back to

February. Over that period, Bush's top score in the

ABC trial heat is 48. In the CBS and ARG polls, it's

46. During that time, Newsweek has repeatedly asked

respondents, " Would you like to see George W. Bush

re-elected to another term as president, or not? " The

percentage saying Bush deserves re-election hasn't

risen above 46. The percentage saying he doesn't

deserve re-election hasn't fallen below 50. During the

same period, Zogby surveys have repeatedly asked

voters, " Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be

re-elected as president of the United States, or is it

time for someone new? " The percentage saying Bush

deserves to be re-elected hasn't risen above 45. The

percentage saying it's time for someone new hasn't

fallen below 51.

 

Bush's job approval rating has been net negative in

CBS surveys since April. Over the same period, his

approval rating in ABC polls peaked at 51 but has been

net negative in five of seven samplings. Even in the

CNN poll, Bush's approval rating has been below 50 in

four of the five surveys this year, including the

latest. And in CBS surveys, the percentage of voters

saying that things in the United States are on the

wrong track hasn't fallen below 51 percent all year.

The percentage saying things are moving in the right

direction hasn't risen above 42 percent. In the

post-convention CBS poll, 59 percent say we're on the

wrong track. Only 36 percent say we're going in the

right direction.

 

4. Locking up support. Given how close Kerry is to 50

percent, Bush can't afford to let Kerry solidify his

support. But that's exactly what Kerry is doing. In

ABC polls since June, the percentage of Kerry

supporters saying there's a good chance they'll change

their mind has fallen from 12 to 5 percent. That's two

points lower than the percentage of Bush supporters

who say the same. In ABC's pre-convention survey, only

72 percent of Kerry's voters supported him strongly.

In the post-convention survey, that number has risen

to 85—virtually equal to Bush's 86.

 

Four years ago, based on numbers less grim than these,

I said Bush was toast. Gore had passed Bush, and I

thought the numbers couldn't turn around. I was wrong.

They could, and they did, and they could again. But

this time, Bush is the incumbent. It's hard to imagine

what he can say from here on out that's going to

change people's minds about him. And it's hard to

imagine what he can say about Kerry that he hasn't

already said in scores of millions of dollars worth of

ads. At the very least, it's Kerry's race to lose.

 

William Saletan is Slate's chief political

correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How

Conservatives Won the Abortion War.

[Guest guest]

-

" Frank " <califpacific

> The one thing that I cannot understand is even though the american people

said in a poll that only 18% believe that he is " telling the truth " he still

has 43 percent of the population at this point still willing to vote for

him. To me that is mind boggling. What does that say about that difference

of 25% that knows that he is lieing and is still willing to vote for him and

what kinds of minds and people are they?

>

> Frank

____________________________

I'm guessing, but it seems to me, that media have, in the past four years,

drummed into people's heads, that Bush, however much of a liar they have to

admit he is, and media really haven't admitted it outright, nevertheless

will keep the American people safe from dangerous, dark people, make or keep

us rich, and promote White Male Supremacy. Sounds to me like 43% of the

American population.

 

The truth is a lot more complex, however. Since the American people are

definitely poorer, and definitely less safe, today than they were at the

beginning of the Bush theft of the White House; only the last of those 3

pieces of " conventional wisdom " will stand up to scrutiny. But how can

you " scrutinize " the political scene, in 10 second TV soundbites? And

therein, lies Bush's principal strength, media. It isn't Bush and his gang

of half-wits that are holding this country hostage, and keeping us from

fulfilling the destiny of a great democracy and republic; it's media that

are doing that.

 

Confront media.