Number of Autism Cases Declines in Calif. No more mercury in vaccines!!!!!!!

[Guest guest]

Now what can the media say?? And big Pharm America??

Autism, Mercury and the California Numbers By David Kirby http://www.huffingtonpost.com/theblog/featuredposts.html#a004133 For months now, a mantra of the thimerosal defenders has been asfollows: “Mercury was removed from vaccines years ago, and we have not seena drop in autism rates.†It looks like they might have to find a new slogan. Freshly reported numbers out of California show that new casesentering that state’s disability system (children who are three-to-fouryears old and newly diagnosed with autism) have indeed dropped since 2002,marking the first decline in new autism cases since California begantracking the mysterious disorder. We now know that 2002 was the peak year for new autism diagnoses inthe state, with 3,259 cases. That number fell to 3,125 in 2003, and droppedto 3,074 in 2004. For the first half of 2005, there were 1,470 new cases,compared to 1,518 in the same period in 2004. A similar downward tick hasbeen reported in Indiana, and other states should begin weighing in soon. The Golden State, however, is said to operate the gold standard ofautism epidemiology, having always tracked “full-blown†autism only, asdefined by the DSM-IV manual. In other words, children with milder forms ofthe disorder, such as PDD and Apserger Syndrome, need not apply forservices. This means that nearly two decades of rising cases in Californiacannot be attributed to wider diagnostic criteria. The autism epidemic isreal. So why is the drop in numbers such a potential bombshell? Becausechildren entering the system today were born in 2001 and 2002, soon afterthe mercury-based preservative thimerosal began to be phased out ofpediatric vaccines in the United States. In California, fewer children with full-blown autism entered thesystem in 2003 than in 2002. Most of these kids would have been born in 1999or 2000, when more mercury-free vaccines began their gradual penetration ofthe market. In 2004, there was another decline, this time among kids bornlargely in 2000 or 2001, when total average mercury burden from vaccinespresumably would have been reduced further. This year, we are seeing kidsborn mostly in 2001 and 2002, when mercury levels declined further still. Is it too early to tell if this is a permanent and meaningful trend?Of course. Could there be other explanations for the drop, such as abudget-crunching reduction in services? Perhaps. But this very decline, atthis very moment, has long been predicted by supporters of thethimerosal-autism theory. At the very least, the quivers of their detractorshave now been emptied of one arrow, for the time being anyway. Stay tuned. If the numbers in California and elsewhere continue todrop – and that still is a big if -- the implication of thimerosal in theautism epidemic will be practically undeniable. David Kirby is author of “Evidence of Harm: Mercury in Vaccines andthe Autism Epidemic†(St. Martin’s Press 2005) www.evidenceofharm.com

[Guest guest]

b

Thu, 14 Jul 2005 10:34:51 EDT

Re: Number of Autism Cases Declines in

Calif. No more mercury in vaccines!!!!!!!

 

 

Now what can the media say?? And big Pharm America??

 

Autism, Mercury and the California Numbers

By David Kirby

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/theblog/featuredposts.html#a004133

 

For months now, a mantra of the thimerosal defenders has been as

follows: “Mercury was removed from vaccines years ago, and we

have not seen

a drop in autism rates.†It looks like they might have to find a

new slogan.

Freshly reported numbers out of California show that new cases

entering that state’s disability system (children who are

three-to-four

years old and newly diagnosed with autism) have indeed dropped

since 2002,

marking the first decline in new autism cases since California began

tracking the mysterious disorder.

We now know that 2002 was the peak year for new autism

diagnoses in

the state, with 3,259 cases. That number fell to 3,125 in 2003,

and dropped

to 3,074 in 2004. For the first half of 2005, there were 1,470 new

cases,

compared to 1,518 in the same period in 2004. A similar downward

tick has

been reported in Indiana, and other states should begin weighing

in soon.

The Golden State, however, is said to operate the gold

standard of

autism epidemiology, having always tracked “full-blown†autism

only, as

defined by the DSM-IV manual. In other words, children with milder

forms of

the disorder, such as PDD and Apserger Syndrome, need not apply for

services. This means that nearly two decades of rising cases in

California

cannot be attributed to wider diagnostic criteria. The autism

epidemic is

real.

So why is the drop in numbers such a potential bombshell?

Because

children entering the system today were born in 2001 and 2002,

soon after

the mercury-based preservative thimerosal began to be phased out of

pediatric vaccines in the United States.

In California, fewer children with full-blown autism entered the

system in 2003 than in 2002. Most of these kids would have been

born in 1999

or 2000, when more mercury-free vaccines began their gradual

penetration of

the market. In 2004, there was another decline, this time among

kids born

largely in 2000 or 2001, when total average mercury burden from

vaccines

presumably would have been reduced further. This year, we are

seeing kids

born mostly in 2001 and 2002, when mercury levels declined further

still.

Is it too early to tell if this is a permanent and

meaningful trend?

Of course. Could there be other explanations for the drop, such as a

budget-crunching reduction in services? Perhaps. But this very

decline, at

this very moment, has long been predicted by supporters of the

thimerosal-autism theory. At the very least, the quivers of their

detractors

have now been emptied of one arrow, for the time being anyway.

Stay tuned. If the numbers in California and elsewhere

continue to

drop †" and that still is a big if -- the implication of

thimerosal in the

autism epidemic will be practically undeniable.

 

David Kirby is author of “Evidence of Harm: Mercury in

Vaccines and

the Autism Epidemic†(St. Martin’s Press 2005)

www.evidenceofharm.com