Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us

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http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1153513,00.html

 

Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us

 

· Secret report warns of rioting and nuclear war

· Britain will be 'Siberian' in less than 20 years

· Threat to the world is greater than terrorism

 

Mark Townsend and Paul Harris in New York

Sunday February 22, 2004

The Observer

 

Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe

costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters..

A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer,

warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is

plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts,

famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the

edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure

dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly

eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.

'Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life,' concludes the

Pentagon analysis. 'Once again, warfare would define human life.'

The findings will prove humiliating to the Bush administration, which has

repeatedly denied that climate change even exists. Experts said that they will

also make unsettling reading for a President who has insisted national defence

is a priority.

The report was commissioned by influential Pentagon defence adviser Andrew

Marshall, who has held considerable sway on US military thinking over the past

three decades. He was the man behind a sweeping recent review aimed at

transforming the American military under Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Climate change 'should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a US national

security concern', say the authors, Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and former

head of planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and Doug Randall of the

California-based Global Business Network.

An imminent scenario of catastrophic climate change is 'plausible and would

challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered

immediately', they conclude. As early as next year widespread flooding by a rise

in sea levels will create major upheaval for millions.

Last week the Bush administration came under heavy fire from a large body of

respected scientists who claimed that it cherry-picked science to suit its

policy agenda and suppressed studies that it did not like. Jeremy Symons, a

former whistleblower at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), said that

suppression of the report for four months was a further example of the White

House trying to bury the threat of climate change.

Senior climatologists, however, believe that their verdicts could prove the

catalyst in forcing Bush to accept climate change as a real and happening

phenomenon. They also hope it will convince the United States to sign up to

global treaties to reduce the rate of climatic change.

A group of eminent UK scientists recently visited the White House to voice their

fears over global warming, part of an intensifying drive to get the US to treat

the issue seriously. Sources have told The Observer that American officials

appeared extremely sensitive about the issue when faced with complaints that

America's public stance appeared increasingly out of touch.

One even alleged that the White House had written to complain about some of the

comments attributed to Professor Sir David King, Tony Blair's chief scientific

adviser, after he branded the President's position on the issue as indefensible.

Among those scientists present at the White House talks were Professor John

Schellnhuber, former chief environmental adviser to the German government and

head of the UK's leading group of climate scientists at the Tyndall Centre for

Climate Change Research. He said that the Pentagon's internal fears should prove

the 'tipping point' in persuading Bush to accept climatic change.

Sir John Houghton, former chief executive of the Meteorological Office - and the

first senior figure to liken the threat of climate change to that of terrorism -

said: 'If the Pentagon is sending out that sort of message, then this is an

important document indeed.'

Bob Watson, chief scientist for the World Bank and former chair of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, added that the Pentagon's dire

warnings could no longer be ignored.

'Can Bush ignore the Pentagon? It's going be hard to blow off this sort of

document. Its hugely embarrassing. After all, Bush's single highest priority is

national defence. The Pentagon is no wacko, liberal group, generally speaking it

is conservative. If climate change is a threat to national security and the

economy, then he has to act. There are two groups the Bush Administration tend

to listen to, the oil lobby and the Pentagon,' added Watson.

'You've got a President who says global warming is a hoax, and across the

Potomac river you've got a Pentagon preparing for climate wars. It's pretty

scary when Bush starts to ignore his own government on this issue,' said Rob

Gueterbock of Greenpeace.

Already, according to Randall and Schwartz, the planet is carrying a higher

population than it can sustain. By 2020 'catastrophic' shortages of water and

energy supply will become increasingly harder to overcome, plunging the planet

into war. They warn that 8,200 years ago climatic conditions brought widespread

crop failure, famine, disease and mass migration of populations that could soon

be repeated.

Randall told The Observer that the potential ramifications of rapid climate

change would create global chaos. 'This is depressing stuff,' he said. 'It is a

national security threat that is unique because there is no enemy to point your

guns at and we have no control over the threat.'

Randall added that it was already possibly too late to prevent a disaster

happening. 'We don't know exactly where we are in the process. It could start

tomorrow and we would not know for another five years,' he said.

'The consequences for some nations of the climate change are unbelievable. It

seems obvious that cutting the use of fossil fuels would be worthwhile.'

So dramatic are the report's scenarios, Watson said, that they may prove vital

in the US elections. Democratic frontrunner John Kerry is known to accept

climate change as a real problem. Scientists disillusioned with Bush's stance

are threatening to make sure Kerry uses the Pentagon report in his campaign.

The fact that Marshall is behind its scathing findings will aid Kerry's cause.

Marshall, 82, is a Pentagon legend who heads a secretive think-tank dedicated to

weighing risks to national security called the Office of Net Assessment. Dubbed

'Yoda' by Pentagon insiders who respect his vast experience, he is credited with

being behind the Department of Defence's push on ballistic-missile defence.

Symons, who left the EPA in protest at political interference, said that the

suppression of the report was a further instance of the White House trying to

bury evidence of climate change. 'It is yet another example of why this

government should stop burying its head in the sand on this issue.'

Symons said the Bush administration's close links to high-powered energy and oil

companies was vital in understanding why climate change was received sceptically

in the Oval Office. 'This administration is ignoring the evidence in order to

placate a handful of large energy and oil companies,' he added.

 

Special report

Climate change

 

Graphics

CO2 emissions

The world in the 2050s

The greenhouse effect

 

Interactive

Guide to drilling for oil in the Arctic

Calculate your personal carbon count

 

Key resources

The Kyoto protocol

Bjorn Lomborg: Are we doing the right thing?

 

Useful links

UN framework convention on climate change

Greenpeace

Friends of the earth

 

 

 

 

 

 

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