Scientists Predict Major SoCal Quake Within Five Months

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- Deon Masker

Scientists Predict Major SoCal Quake Within Five Months

 

KTVU.comScientists Predict Major SoCal Quake Within Five Months POSTED: 3:07 pm PST April 1, 2004UPDATED: 3:27 am PST April 2, 2004LOS ANGELES -- A state earthquake council has given a qualifiedendorsement to a prediction by a group of scientists who believe that atemblor of magnitude-6.4 or greater will occur in the Southern Californiadesert sometime in the next five months.The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, a group of eightscientists selected by the state Office of Emergency Services, said itconsiders the new prediction by the scientists to be "a legitimateapproach in earthquake prediction research."Despite its support the panel noted in a report that "the physical basisfor the prediction has not been substantiated." The team of scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles,predict that a quake will occur within a 12,000-square-mile area east ofLos Angeles by Sept. 5. The zone includes a large swath of the MojaveDesert, the Coachella Valley, the Imperial Valley and eastern San DiegoCounty.The area was the location of the magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake in 1992and the 7.1 Hector Mine quake in 1999.The zone is so seismically active that the council noted in its reportthat the chances of an earthquake of at least magnitude-6.4 occurringrandomly in the area sometime before the Sept. 5 deadline is about 10percent.The council concluded that the results do not warrant any special publicpolicy actions in California. Such actions could include warnings to thepublic or alerts issued to utilities to help them prevent disruptions inservice.The scientists piqued interest after they forecast the magnitude-6.5 SanSimeon quake in December and the magnitude-8.1 quake last year offJapan's Hokkaido island. In both cases, the group set wide parameters inplace and time.The team bases its predictions on long chains of small earthquakesrecorded in the area."In the vicinity of each such chain, we look backward and see its historyover the preceding years -- whether our candidate (for an earthquake) waspreceded by certain seismicity patterns," said lead team scientistVladimir Keilis-Borok. "If yes, we accept the candidate as a short-termprecursor and start a nine-month alarm."Copyright 2004 by KTVU.com. The Associated Press contributed to thisreport. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.