Indian temperature rise 'will exceed projected rainfall'

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Indian temperature rise 'will exceed projected rainfall'

T. V. Padma(From scidev.net)

 

 

 

6 November 2008 |

EN

 

 

 

[NEW DELHI] One of India's leading climate change scientists

says the country needs to address the impact of climate change on its

agriculture, water resources and health " right away " , as projected

temperature rise will far exceed the increase in rainfall by the end of

the century.

If India makes no efforts to cap its current emissions of

greenhouse gases — such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide that trap

heat and cause temperatures to rise — then the country could face a

temperature increase of four degrees Celsius by 2100, said Kankicharla

Krishna Kumar, head of the new climate change research centre at the

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).

But there will be no matching increase in monsoon rainfall

until 2040, he told the 74th annual meeting of the Indian Academy of

Sciences, in Delhi last week (1 November).

Kumar's warning is based on projections by regional climate change models developed at IITM.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has projected

India will become hotter and wetter by the end of the century due to

global warming (see India predicts suffering from climate change).

But Krishna Kumar cautions that the expected benefits of

rainfall " will be nullified " by the rise in temperature; and higher day

and night temperatures over the country will impact its crops, water

resources, ground water supplies and health issues such as heat stroke

and extension of malaria-prone areas.

He also referred to a previous analysis by scientists from the

Indian Institute of Science, which shows a link between droughts and a

fall in the country's food production and gross national product.

" Studies have shown that even a one degree rise in temperature

can cause a ten per cent reduction in [crop] yield. And we are talking

about three degrees change expected in future in India, " he said.

Kumar said that India needs to continuously improve its

climate change forecast models, given there are unaddressed

uncertainties and biases in existing models.

These include uncertainties about projected greenhouse gas

emissions and concentrations, as well as the influence of haze or smog

over northern India during winter — a factor which has not yet been

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