HEALTH: Vaccines and Disease - An investigative Report

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July 12, 2001

Updated: November 6, 2002

Updated: November 18, 2002

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Roman Bystrianyk

http://www.HealthSentinel.com

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The fatal tendency of mankind to leave off thinking about a thing

which is no longer doubtful is the cause of half their errors.

– John Stuart Mill

 

In 1949, the DTP vaccine was licensed to prevent diphtheria, tetanus,

and pertussis (whooping cough) issuing forth the modern use of vaccines

in the prevention of childhood illnesses. Polio immunization was later

introduced to prevent that dread disease. In 1963, the measles vaccine

was licensed and was combined with mumps and rubella vaccines to create

the MMR vaccine. In more recent times the hepatitis B and chickenpox

vaccines have been developed and incorporated into our healthcare

system. Now a child can expect to receive up to 33 vaccines during

their childhood with more vaccines on the horizon, such as herpes zoster

(shingles), West Nile virus, influenza, pneumococcal, HIV, and many

more. The belief that vaccines are safe and effective is pervasive in

today’s society. The vast majority of the medical, public, and

government communities have a well-established belief system in the

benefits of vaccines. Even children’s books show how important it is to

“get a shot from the doctor to keep us well.” Our belief system is so

ingrained that we look to medical science to create new vaccines to

protect us from everything from AIDS to ear infections.

 

Unlike almost any other health-related issue in the free world,

governments mandate many vaccines for the theoretical public good. In

the United States, all 50 states require a large number of vaccinations

before children are allowed to attend public schools or day care

centers. Although most states have religious and medical exemptions,

with some having a philosophical exemption, public and medical officials

exert a great deal of pressure to vaccinate. The pervasive attitude

that plagues will return and ravage the western world without everyone

giving their child a full set of vaccinations is a powerful force in

modern society.

 

One of the chief concepts that vaccine proponents tell us, and that we

generally believe in modern society, is that the use of vaccines is

responsible for the virtual elimination of many childhood scourges that

used to ravage the world. We are told, and assume, that in the 1800s

and early in the 1900s many diseases killed a large number of people,

and that vaccines were invented and stopped these diseases from being a

threat. But is this in fact the case? An immunization booklet produced

by the CDC (Centers for Disease Control) states the following: “Why are

baby shots so important? These shots protect your baby from nine

diseases: measles, mumps, rubella (German measles), diphtheria, tetanus,

pertussis (whooping cough), polio, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib

disease), and hepatitis B. Are these diseases very serious? Today we

might not think of these diseases as being very serious because thanks

to vaccines, we don’t see them as often as we used to. … Measles used to

kill hundreds – sometimes thousands – of people a year. In the 1920s,

over 10,000 people a year died from diphtheria.”

 

“Years ago, diphtheria was a widespread and greatly feared disease.

Through the 1920s, it struck about 150,000 people a year and killed

about 15,000 of them. Since then these figures have dipped

considerably, thanks to parents who have gotten their children

vaccinated against this terrible disease. There were only 918 cases in

1960, 435 in 1970 and 128 in 1976. Today, only a few cases occur each year.”

 

These statements are certainly compelling. On the face of it, we cannot

help but assume that vaccines have played a key role in improving all of

our lives. But looking carefully at the evidence over a longer period

of time reveals a different picture of disease evolution and the role

vaccines have played. One Swiss scientist that analyzed data over a

longer period of time came to a different conclusion of what occurred in

Switzerland:

 

In that research paper, several graphs of death rates in Switzerland

show massive drops in deaths from disease long before vaccinations are

introduced. One graph shows diphtheria death rates for children from 0

to 14 years of age peaking at over 200 deaths per 100,000 in the late

1800s. This is followed by death rates decreasing to less than 10

deaths per 100,000 near the time of the introduction of the vaccine in

the mid 1930s. There was an apparent 95 percent decrease in diphtheria

death rates before introduction of the vaccine. Another graph within

the same study shows scarlet fever decreasing from 200 deaths per

100,000 in the late 1800s to virtually zero by the 1930s before drug

treatments were introduced. Yet another graph in the study shows

typhoid also decreasing from 50 deaths per 100,000 in 1876 to virtually

zero by the 1940s when drug treatments were introduced.

 

A review of “Childhood’s Deadly Scourge” states:

 

The Vital Statistics of the United States contains compiled statistics

for a wide variety of information since early in the 1900s. Among those

are death rates from all diseases, including infectious diseases. An

introductory statement from the 1937 statistics indicates that death

rates from infectious diseases declined greatly in the early part of the

century. These declines occurred well before the advent of vaccines to

treat these conditions.

 

>>From these figures, we can see that death rates from typhoid decreased

by 91% from 1910 to 1937 and death rates from diphtheria declined by

90.5% during the same time period. The decrease in diphtheria occurred

well before the use of vaccination. An even a more recent editorial

statement from the Journal of Pediatrics states that proper sanitation

was largely responsible for the early large declines in infectious diseases.

 

Again, in a 2001 paper in the Journal of Infection Control:

 

Another paper published in the premier medical journal The Lancet in

1977 by the Department of Community Medicine in the United Kingdom also

indicates that vaccines were not responsible for the decline in disease

rates in that country.

 

The author’s conclusion that “there is no evidence that vaccination

played a major role in the decline in incidence and mortality” is quite

monumental and far different than the general public perception. Thomas

McKeown who was Professor of Social Medicine in the University of

Birmingham Medical School between 1950 and 1978, is still regarded as a

major social philosopher of medicine, and known for his important works

on epidemiology and the practice and purpose of medicine. His

conclusion was also that diseases were declining well before medical

interventions such as vaccinations came into standard use.

 

Another author shows that disease and mortality was falling before the

advent of vaccines or drug therapies:

 

In the view of this, how can the statements made by the CDC on how

“thanks to vaccines” diseases are a thing of the past be correct? Back

in 1924 Mark Twain was quoted as saying, “There are three kinds of lies

— lies, damned lies, and statistics.” When Mark Twain made this

statement, his point was that numbers could be manipulated by the

unscrupulous to misrepresent facts, to justify a particular bias, or

fulfill a particular agenda. It is an unhappy fact of modern life that

anyone with an idea can support that idea with statistics. The less the

public knows about the source of the statistics, the more possible it is

to have misinformation posing as scientific results. Simple statements,

such as “in the 1920s, over 10,000 people a year died from diphtheria”,

although accurate are very misleading. Providing a piece of historical

fact without any real context and mixing it with statements on how

vaccines helped cure these diseases leads the reader to erroneously

conclude that vaccines were instrumental in the massive declines of

deaths from these diseases. The CDC’s statements on vaccines only

provide a few facts and then draw a conclusion on this limited

information. To understand the role of vaccines, we must use the raw

information and analyze it over a long period of time. The Vital

Statistics of the United States provides the most accurate information

of death rates from various causes starting early in the 1900s.[10]

Figure 1 is a graph of the death rates from measles, typhoid, scarlet

fever, whooping cough (pertussis), and diphtheria. Both the pertussis

and diphtheria vaccines were made widely available in 1949 and the

measles vaccine was introduced in 1963.

 

 

Figure 1. Death rates from infectious diseases

 

This graph shows that large drops in disease death rates occurred long

before vaccines were introduced. From 1900 to 1963, when the measles

vaccine was introduced, death rates from measles had declined from 13.3

per 100,000 to 0.2 per 100,000 – a 98% decrease. From 1900 to 1949,

death rates from whooping cough declined from 12.2 per 100,000 to 0.5

per 100,000 – a 96% decrease. From 1900 to 1949, death rates from

diphtheria declined from 40.3 per 100,000 to 0.4 per 100,000 – a 99%

decrease. These are clear and major changes in the severity of diseases

well before any vaccines were introduced. Close up views (figures 2-4)

of the diphtheria, pertussis, and measles death rates show this dramatic

drop well before vaccination programs began.

 

Figure 2. Death rates from Diphtheria

 

Figure 3. Death rates from Pertussis

 

Figure 4. Death rates from Measles

 

Similarly, in England and Wales we find the same decline in disease

mortality. The data for the disease mortality was recorded 50 years

earlier than in the United States, beginning in 1850. [11] From 1850 to

1968, when the measles vaccine was introduced, death rates from measles

had declined from a range of 52.11 to 26.6 per 100,000 to 0.11 per

100,000 – a range of 99.8% to 99.6% decrease. From 1860 to 1955, death

rates from whooping cough declined from a range of 43.73 to 60.86 per

100,000 to 0.2 per 100,000 – a 99.5% to 99.7% decrease. From 1859 to

1940, death rates from diphtheria declined from a range of 49.2 to 22.7

per 100,000 to 6.77 to 1.83 per 100,000 – a 96.2% to 70.2% decrease. The

exact decrease in mortality is difficult to obtain because the mortality

from these diseases fluctuated from year to year, and the exact

introduction of a vaccination and number of people vaccinated each year

is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain. However, it is clear that

death rates in England did to a large extent decline before vaccinations

were widespread.

 

Figure 5 is a graph that shows the mortality rate declines in England

and Wales. The gap from 1891 to 1900 is because data was not acquired

for those specific dates.

 

Figure 5. Death rates from infectious

 

diseases in England and Wales The modern era of vaccines actually began

with the advent of the vaccine against smallpox. Edward Jenner was

aware of the belief that people who contracted cowpox never contracted

smallpox. He hypothesized that inoculating people with cowpox would

immunize them against smallpox. On May 14, 1796, he inoculated an

eight-year-old boy, named James Phipps, with matter taken from a cowpox

pustule. Phipps developed coxpox and quickly recovered. Several weeks

later, Phipps was inoculated with smallpox and did not contract the

disease. In 1798, Jenner reported his work in the book, “An Inquiry into

the Causes and Effects of the Variolae Vaccine.” This book prompted the

medical professionals of the time to adopt the practice of vaccination.

The vaccine was introduced in England in 1798. It was later made

compulsory in 1853 through the Compulsory Vaccination Act, and then in

1867, an even more stringent law was passed to enforce vaccination.

 

Looking at the raw data from England during that era [12], as shown in

Figure 6, we see that despite enforced vaccinations against smallpox

there was no significant decrease in deaths from smallpox. In fact,

three major epidemics during 1857-1859, 1863-1865, and 1871-1872

occurred, even though there was a high vaccination rate. The last major

epidemic in 1871-1872 had death rates of 101.2 and 82.1 per 100,000

people respectively, occurring just four years after a newer and more

strict vaccination law was enacted in 1867.

 

Figure 6. Death rates from smallpox and scarlet fever in England.

 

Another interesting point is that the smallpox disease cycle of

decreased deaths and epidemics appears closely tied to the scarlet fever

disease cycle. Just as there was a large decrease in scarlet fever

deaths after 1885, there was simultaneously a decrease in smallpox

deaths. It is important to remember that death from scarlet fever,

which was the worst of infectious diseases in that era, was eliminated

without any vaccination program.

 

Figure 7 shows that vaccination coverage had no apparent affect on

smallpox deaths. As coverage fell to from a high of 86% in 1879 to 61%

in 1898 there was no resurgence of smallpox deaths. There was a small

increase in smallpox deaths to 7.5 per 100,000 people as vaccine

coverage rates again increased to 71.8% in 1902, but there after, as

vaccine rates fell to below 40%, there was no increase in smallpox

deaths. In fact, after 1905, deaths from smallpox almost completely vanished.

 

Figure 7. Smallpox deaths and vaccination percent of births.

 

We must also remember that deaths were directly attributable to the

smallpox vaccine. Figure 8 shows the deaths per 100,000 that were

caused by the smallpox vaccine. Although the number of people that died

from the vaccine is small compared to the number of people that were

killed directly by smallpox, after 1888 there were years that the deaths

from the vaccine was close to or exceeded that from the disease itself

(e.g. 1889 – smallpox: 23, vaccine: 58; 1890 – smallpox: 16, vaccine:

43; 1891 – smallpox: 49, vaccine: 43). After 1905, as can be seen in

Figure 9, the number of deaths from smallpox and vaccination were very

close to one another. In point of fact, after 1905, a person was almost

as likely to die from the vaccine for smallpox as from the disease itself.

 

Figure 8. Deaths per 100,000 from cowpox and other effects of vaccination.

 

Figure 9. Actual smallpox and smallpox vaccination deaths.

 

Another interesting point of note is that certain diseases that also

once killed many people declined and vanished without any assistance

from mass vaccination programs. Typhoid death rates of 10s per 100,000

each year was not uncommon. Scarlet fever once killed large numbers of

people at a death rate of 100 or more per 100,000 each year. While

quite deadly during their prime, these two “killers” were in effect

eradicated due in large part to advances in hygiene and a better

understanding of germ activity.

 

The Canadian Medical Journal contains the following statements in an

advisory statement:

 

If the forces of improved living conditions, better drinking water

quality and the treatment of sewage virtually eliminated illnesses such

as typhoid and scarlet fever, then isn’t it reasonable to consider that

other diseases, such as measles and pertussis, would have had similar

fates? An analysis of the death rates for all these diseases does

support this idea.

 

The Conquest of Disease by Thurman B. Rice, MD from 1932 states:

 

Again, the major decline in mortality rates can be attributed to

improvements in proper hygiene, not only at a societal structural level,

but also due to major changes in attitude in personal hygiene.

 

It would appear that, at best, vaccines could be credited with only a

tiny fraction of the overall decline of disease deaths in the 1800s and

1900s. Because death rates were declining, it is impossible to say

whether vaccines had a real effect or if that the same forces that

caused the majority of the decline would have continued to have a

positive impact. Those forces were primarily that of improved

sanitation, proper personal hygiene, improved diet, and the natural

cycles of disease. Based on our knowledge that proper sanitation,

improved living conditions, and improved nutrition were the key factors

that caused declines in these diseases, we can ask the question: are the

present deaths and complications from these diseases in people of poor

socioeconomic or compromised nutritional status? Is it possible that the

focus on mass vaccination programs diverted attention from continued

improvements in sanitation and nutrition that could have further reduced

or eliminated disease deaths and complications? It would seem that the

people who recognized the underlying cause of diseases and instituted

better living conditions, proper water and better sanitation should be

recognized for their remarkable achievements, not the inventors and

promoters of vaccines.

 

This analysis, which is based on historical and scientific studies, is a

far different picture than the one alluded to by the CDC in their

vaccine literature. Because the focus has predominantly been on medical

intervention, the history of what really caused the decline in disease

mortality is “largely unknown” and “rarely taught”. The information that

disease death declined before vaccination is important in the present

day because we need to pay attention to these underlying causes of

infectious disease. We must be ever vigilant to avoid returning to those

disease-causing conditions and to examine these conditions when disease

outbreaks occur. It is an important lesson in how we should approach

disease prevention in third world countries. We should not forget the

words of George Santayana: " Those who cannot remember the past are

condemned to repeat it. "

 

 

References:

[1] Parent’s Guide to Childhood Immunization., U.S. Department of Health

and Human Services, Public Health Service, Centers for Disease Control

and Prevention, National Immunization Program, Atlanta Georgia 30333,

1993, pp. 1, 7, 21

 

[2] Gubéran, E., “Tendances de la mortalité en Suisse”, Schweiz. Med

Wschr. 110, 1980, pp. 574-583

 

[3] Morman, E.T., “Childhood’s Deadly Scourge: The Campaign to Control

Diphtheria in New York City, 1880-1930”, The Journal of the American

Medical Association, April 12, 2000 Vol. 283, p. 1889

 

[4] Vital Statistics of the United States 1937 Part I, U.S. Department

of the Census, 1939, p. 11

 

[5] “Zinc, diarrhea, and pneumonia (editorial)”, The Journal of

Pediatrics, December 1999, Vol. 135, No. 6, p. 663

 

[6] Greene, Velvl W., PhD, MPH, “Personal hygiene and life expectancy

improvements since 1850: Historic and epidemiologic associations”,

American Journal of Infection Control (AJIC), August 2001, Vol. 29, No.

4, pp. 203-206

 

[7] Steward, Gordon T., “Vaccination Against Whooping-Cough Efficacy

Versus Risks”, The Lancet,

January 29, 1977, pp. 234-237

 

[8] Porter, Roy, “The Greatest Benefit to Mankind”, Harper Collins

Publishers, 1997, p. 426

 

[9] Porter, Roy, “The Greatest Benefit to Mankind”, Harper Collins

Publishers, 1997, p. 427

 

[10] Vital Statistics of the United States 1937 Part I, U.S. Bureau of

the Census, 1939, pp. 11-12; Vital Statistics of the United States 1938

Part I, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1940, p. 12; Vital Statistics of the

United States 1943 Part I, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1945; Vital

Statistics of the United States 1944 Part I, U.S. Bureau of the Census,

1946, p XXII-XXIII; Vital Statistics of the United States 1949 Part I,

U.S. Public Health Service, 1951, p. XLIV; Vital Statistics of the

United States 1960 Volume II – Mortality Part A, U.S. Department of

Health, Education, and Welfare, 1963, p. 1-25; Vital Statistics of the

United States 1967 Volume II – Mortality Part A, U.S. Department of

Health, Education, and Welfare, 1969, p. 1-7; Vital Statistics of the

United States 1976 Volume II – Mortality Part A, U.S. Department of

Health Human Services, 1980, p. 1-7; Vital Statistics of the United

States 1987 Volume II – Mortality Part A, U.S. Department of Health and

Human Services, 1990, p. 11; Vital Statistics of the United States 1992

Volume II – Mortality Part A, U.S. Department of Health and Human

Services, 1996, p. 12; Historical Statistics of the United States –

Colonial Times to 1970 Part 1, Bureau of the Census, p. 58

 

[11] Mortality in England and Wales for 95 years as provided by the

Office of National Statistics - Published 1997;

 

[12] Written answer by Lord E. Percy to Parliamentary question addressed

by Mr. March, M.P., to the Minister to Health on July 16th, 1923

 

[13] “Statement on overseas travelers and typhoid fever”, Canadian

Medical Association Journal,

1994, 151, pp. 989-990

 

[14] Rice, Thurman, A.M., MD The Conquest of Disease, The Macmillan

Company, 1932, pp. 68, 121-122

 

[15] Greene, American Journal of Infection Control (AJIC), August 2001,

Vol. 29, No. 4, pp.203-206