Weathermen predicts @% less Rainfal + Crop Situation

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In This NEWS Bulletin ********************************* 1. Weathermen predicts 2% less rainfall 2. Harvest moon to shine as June rainfall steadies summer crops --- Weathermen predicts 2% less rainfall http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=168635 ASHOK B SHARMA Posted online: Saturday, June 30, 2007 at 0001 hours IST NEW DELHI, JUN 29 : The official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its earlier forecast and notched down the possibility of a countrywide rainfall by two percentage points. It said that the average cumulative rainfall over the country in the four-month monsoon season beginning June would be 93% of the normal rainfall index of 89 cm. This comes with an improved model error of +/-4%. Earlier in April, this year, IMD predicted 95% rainfall, subjected to a model error of +/-5%. However, this is not a major cause for concern. In the earlier Gwarikar model forecast nationwide rainfall within the range of +/-10% of 89cm was termed as "normal monsoon" According to the IMD's updated forecast rainfall over the

country in July would be 95% of its long period average (LPA), subjected to a model error of +/-9%. An IMD official, however, cautioned of a peculiar situation developing over the Pacific Ocean "which may suck the moisture from the Indian monsoon clouds." He said that everything will go well for Indian monsoon till July 10, after which the situation needs assessment. However, going by the global forecasts IMD said that spoilsport, El Nino (warming of Pacific waters above normal) would be neutral. It questioned the global forecasts on the possibility of emergence of La Nina (cooling of Pacific waters below normal). La Nina usually bestows good rains. IMD has predicted largely even distribution of rainfall over

the country as compared to global models which have predicted heavy concentration of rainfall in the western coast, peninsular India and in the foothills of the Himalayas. According to IMD, northwestern India would get rainfall of 90% of its LPA, northeastern India 98% of its LPA, central India 96% of its LPA and southern peninsular 94% of its LPA. These regional forecasts are subjected to a model error of +/-8%. In June the nationwide rainfall has been 7% more than the LPA. “However good rainfall in June is not an indicator of a successful monsoon. In drought years of 2002, 2004 we had good rainfall in June,” said the IMD official According to the government’s crop weather watch group, areas under rice, jowar, maize, sugarcane and jute are lagging behind as compared to the like period in the previous year. Only areas under cotton and pulses have marked an increase. This is primarily due to the delayed movement of the monsoon in many parts of the country. - Harvest moon to shine as June rainfall steadies

summer crops http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=168789 ASHOK B SHARMA Posted online: Monday, July 02, 2007 at 0000 hours IST NEW DELHI, JULY 1: Even distribution of monsoon rains is crucial to summer crops. That’s exactly what is happening, say data released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for June. According to IMD, major parts of the country received good rains in June. Till June 27, the average cumulative rainfall over the country was 7% more than the normal rainfall of 138.5 mm for the period. Out of the 533 districts, where rainfall was recorded, 66% districts received excess to normal rains, while 32% districts received deficient to scanty rains. Only 2% districts did not receive any rains. The rainfall data, therefore suggest mostly even distribution of rainfall in the month. However, the crop data recorded by the crop division of the agriculture ministry show that summer crops like rice, coarse cereals, mainly jowar,

bajra, and maize, sugarcane and jute are lagging in area coverage. Cotton has marked an increase in area coverage to 1.53 million hectares from 1.477 million hectares of the previous year. The area under Bt cotton accounts for only 0.86 million hectares. Pulses too have increased in area coverage. According to the reports received from various states, cultivation of crops were delayed on account of delay in the movement of the monsoon over the mainland. The South-West monsoon arrived at the Andaman Sea on May 11, almost 10 days earlier than the normal date and it also touched the Kerala coast four days earlier on May 28. By May 29, it covered entire coastal Karnataka and some parts of south interior Karnataka and

south Tamil Nadu. After this there was hiatus in the advancement of the monsoon for about a week due to formation of the super cyclone, "Gonu" over the Arabian, as per the assessments made by the IMD. The monsoon thereafter made some advancement from June 8 to 18, but was running behind its schedule in many parts of the country. Again there was a halt to the monsoon progress for about 9 days and it recovered on June 26 and began progressing to other parts of the country and touched Delhi on June 28, a day earlier than its due date. It also covered other parts of country including Barmer, Jodhpur, Ajmer, Jaipur in Rajasthan, Narnaul and Rohtak in Haryana and Ludhiana and Amritsar in Punjab. The delay in monsoon advancement was, therefore, the main cause for the delay in sowing in several parts of the country, particularly in rainfed areas. In spite of the delay in advancement of the monsoon, some regions of the country received rains influenced by other factors and thus June enjoyed a good rainfall on an average. In irrigated areas and in areas which had good rains farmers began transplanting rice. According to reports received from states, transplanting of rice has commenced in Andhra

Pradesh, Assam, Gujarat, Haryana, J & K, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Orissa, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West Bengal. However are the total area coverage under rice is lagging behind – 31.640 lakh hectare as compared to 34.330 lakh hectare in the like period last year. IMD has said north-west India would receive rains amounting to 90% of its long period average (LPA), north-east India 98% of its LPA, central India 96% of its LPA and south peninsula 94% of its LPA. This indicates even distribution of rainfall. Slightly lower distribution of rainfall in north-west India may not be a problem as the area is largely irrigated. IMD also said that rainfall over the country in the July, the crucial month, would be 95% of its LPA. If IMD's forecast come out to be true, it would be good for farmers.

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