GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE and Indian Monsoon Rainfall

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In This NEWS Bulletin ********************************** 1. Shift in monsoon rain pattern, west coast build-up forecast 2. Monsoon 5% less than average but no cause for concern: Met forecast 3. Expect increased intensity of tropical storms in the region, says M JARRAUD, Secretary-general of World Meteorological Organisation 4. Extreme weather conditions are fairly common now, says MURARI LAL, former professor, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi 5. ‘Attempts to limit greenhouse gas emissions pitiful’ : Nobel Laureate PAUL J CRUTZEN in an exclusive interview 6. Renewable energy can meet 50% of power needs, says a study by Greenpeace & European Renewable Energy Council 7. De-carbonise energy use, says Greenpeace ------------------------- Front Page - The Indian Express Shift in monsoon rain pattern, west coast build-up forecast http://www.indianexpress.com/story/28681.html ASHOK B SHARMAPosted online: Wednesday, April 18, 2007 at 0000 hrs New Delhi, April 17 : There’s likely to be a shift in the rainfall pattern this monsoon season with concentration on the western coast. The south-west monsoon season usually begins from June and forecasts by global agencies show that in the first half of the season, heavy rains would occur on the west coast, parts of south India, western Uttar Pradesh

and northeastern Madhya Pradesh. In the last two months, the southern peninsula, western and central India would receive heavy rains. The US-based International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), while making the forecast, did not specifically identify the regions of drought or deficient rainfall in India. Temperatures would remain high in several parts of the country. The shift in the rainfall pattern is a matter of concern. Since the last two years, there has been heavy rainfall in

drought-prone areas while the flood-prone areas were left dry. Meteorologists are studying this shift in the rainfall pattern and are trying to correlate with climate change. The good news is that the spoilsport El Nino — it’s the warming of Pacific waters above normal range and leads to drought in different parts of the world — has subsided and would remain ‘‘neutral’’.’ El Nino’s opposite La Nina (cooling of Pacific waters above the normal range) causes heavy rainfall at places. Global forecasts suggest

while EL Nino will remain subdued in all four regions of the Pacific (Nino 1+2, 3, 3.4 and 4), there may be a possible emergence of a weak La Nina. The forecasts, however, are not sure when the La Nina phenomena would emerge and to what extent it can impact. The IRI, while making its projection for El Nino, has taken into consideration the forecasts made by 14 dynamical and 9 statistical models. Monsoon rainfall forecast depends upon several factors like land and ocean temperature, snow cover, wind pressure gradient. The IRI has considered some relevant factors and said “temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean would very slowly weaken” in the monsoon period. Temperature in the tropical Atlantic, north of the equator, would also weaken mildly below normal in the south of the equator in the eastern region. -- Front Page - The Indian Express Monsoon 5% less than average but no cause for concern: Met forecast http://www.indianexpress.com/story/28864.html ASHOK B

SHARMA Posted online: Friday, April 20, 2007 at 0000 hrs New Delhi, April 19: In its preliminary monsoon forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the official weather forecasting agency, has said that the nationwide rainfall this monsoon season will be 5 per cent less than the average of 89 cm. Though this is less than last year, which received 99 per cent of the long-term average

rainfall against a forecast of 93 per cent, it is well within the normal range and should not be cause for concern. “The error margin is five per cent which means it can be 100 per cent in the best case scenario,” said P S Goel, Secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences. The forecast has been made as per a new model introduced this year with an inbuilt error of +/-5 per cent. This is the second time since 2002 that the IMD has had to discard its forecast model and opt for a new one. The 16-parameter Gowarikar model, in operation for over 14 years, was discarded in 2003 after the model failed to forecast the 2002 drought. The 8 and 10 parameter models, which replaced the Gowarikar model and were in operation for the last four years, have now been replaced by two forecast models — 5-parameter model for making an initial forecast in April and 6-parameter model for making the final forecast in June. The weathermen declined to categorise the forecast — whether or not it can be called a normal monsoon — because the

new model does not have any such category. In the Gowarikar model, nationwide rainfall within the range of +/- 10 per cent of the long period average was termed as “normal rainfall”. In the models used in the last four years, nationwide rainfall within the range of 98 to 102 per cent of the average was termed “near normal”. The 4-month south-west monsoon season begins in June and the IMD will make a forecast in mid-May on the date of approach of the monsoon over the Kerala coast. “In the last week of June, we will

make a forecast for the nationwide rainfall in July, a final forecast for the monsoon period and rainfall forecast over four homogeneous region,” said IMD director M Rajeevan. According to Rajeevan, most parameters used in the forecast model were old, except one — the North Atlantic mean sea level pressure in May. The parameters have been selected to suit the changed scenario. The earth science ministry’s annual report, admitting the impact of climate change, said: “The findings indicate minor but perceptible shifts in the monsoon trough positions and strength of monsoon flow.” --- FACE 2 FACE Is climate change more marked in India? Is rainfall fluctuation the prime culprit? Expect increased intensity of tropical storms in the region M JARRAUD http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=156050 Posted online : Monday, February 26, 2007 at 0000 hours IST Global warming is most likely caused by human activity and is a global phenomenon. It is affecting the Indian subcontinent too. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major fluctuation across the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is associated with periodic variations in the sea surface temperatures of the eastern Pacific Ocean. It is a large climatic cycle and it has been shown to affect regions far removed from the

Pacific basin. There are indeed numerous examples of the global outreach of polar issues. For example, polar ice constitutes effective thermal caps and play a critical role in sustaining the global oceanic circulation. Moreover, polar regions have a primordial role in determining global climate system, which is driven by the energy received from the Sun, mostly at lower latitudes. Equator receives about five times as much heat energy as the Poles over the year, and the atmosphere and the oceans respond to this large temperature gradient by transporting heat towards the Poles. Therefore, the two polar regions are linked to the rest of the Earth’s climate system through rather complex paths based on combined atmospheric flow and oceanic circulation. During the last decades, significant changes were detected in the polar environment. These changes, which are even more evident in the Arctic than in the Antarctic. Shrinking of sea ice might induce serious changes in marine ecosystems, thereby affecting marine mammals and the vast krill populations that feed countless seabirds, seals and whales. The atmospheric ozone was first measured over the Antartic by surface-based instruments during the International Geophysical Year 1957-58. Since the mid-1970s, a different pattern was detected at the end of the southern hemispheric winters, since increasingly lower values of ozone were consecutively measured each year until the spring warming of the stratosphere set in. Accordingly, the discovery of the

Antarctic ozone hole was an important consequence. It was finally determined that the ‘hole’ developed in great part as a result of emissions of some widely used industrial gases. If the provisions of the Montreal Protocol of 1987 on substances that deplete the ozone layer are adhered to, it is estimated that the ozone layer at mid-latitudes will be recovering its normal values by the middle of the present century and that over the Antarctic, recuperation will demand an additional 15 years. Weather forecasting in both polar regions presents some unique challenges, as compared to the extra-polar regions, but notable advances made during recent years in terms of observing systems and numerical weather prediction have led to considerable

improvement in the skill of weather forecasts, including those made for the polar regions. —The writer is secretary-general, World Meteorological Organisation --- FACE 2 FACE Is climate change more marked in India? Is rainfall fluctuation the prime culprit? Extreme weather conditions are

fairly common now MURARI LAL http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=156049 Posted online : Monday, February 26, 2007 at 0000 hours IST Earth’s climate is the warmest today in the last 140 years. An annual mean global warming of 0.74 degree celsius has been reported over the last 100 years. Surface temperature records also indicate that 11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest years of global surface temperature since 1850s. The analysis of seasonal and annual surface air temperatures in India has also shown a significant warming trend of 0.7 degree celsius in the past 100 years. The warming over the Indian subcontinent is mainly contributed by the post-monsoon and winter seasons. The rainfall has been largely random over a century, with no systematic change detected on either annual or seasonal scale. However, some areas have seen marked increase or decrease in the seasonal rainfall in recent years. The western Himalayas get more snowfall than the

eastern Himalayas during winter while there is more rainfall in the eastern Himalayas and Nepal during the monsoon season. Extreme rainfall incidents have seen a huge jump in recent decades over northwest India (including Maharashtra and Gujarat) during the summer monsoon. Moreover, the number of rainy days along east coastal stations has declined. In general, climatic variability and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods and timing of rainfall has increased over the

past decade in India. Orissa has been reeling under contrasting extreme weather conditions for more than a decade: from heat waves to cyclones and from droughts to floods. The death toll due to heat waves in Rajasthan, Punjab, Gujarat, and Bihar is on the rise. The coastal regions have been undergoing stronger wind and flood damage due to storm surges associated with more intense tropical storms in recent years. Frequent inundation of low lying areas, more flooding and increase in the salinity of rivers, bays and aquifers in the coastal regions have occurred more often during the past decade. The Fourth Scientific Assessment Report (4AR) of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that increasing quantity of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere could accelerate. As a consequence, increase in average global surface temperature is likely to be in the range of 1.8 degree celsius to 4 degree celsius . The study suggests that, while the warmer Indian Ocean would contribute to increase in summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia, the warmer Pacific Ocean would weaken the monsoon flow and reduce the monsoon precipitation. Amplification in storm surge heights should result from stronger winds and low pressures associated with tropical storms. This could lead to higher storm surges. —The writer is former professor, IIT Delhi-------- Interview with Nobel Laureate PAUL J CRUTZEN

- Q & A ‘Attempts to limit greenhouse gas emissions pitiful’ http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=156758 Posted online : Monday, March 05, 2007 at 0000 hours IST The atmosphere surrounding the Earth contains small quantities of ozone— a gas that plays a fundamental part in life on Earth. This is because ozone is able to absorb the major part of Sun’s ultraviolet radiation and therefore prevent this dangerous radiation from reaching the Earth’s surface. Without a protective ozone layer in the atmosphere,

animals and plants could not exist, at least upon land. It is therefore important to understand the processes that regulate the atmosphere’s ozone content. Especially, after the discovery of a ‘hole’ in the ozone layer over Antarctica that prompted global action. Paul Crutzen of the Max-Planck-Institute for Chemistry, Germany, along with his colleagues, Sherwood Rowland and Mario J Molina, made pioneering contributions to explaining how ozone is formed and decomposes through chemical processes in the atmosphere. Most importantly, their work showed how sensitive the ozone layer is to the influence of dangerous emissions of certain compounds. By explaining the chemical mechanisms that affect the thickness of the ozone layer, the three researchers have contributed to our salvation from a global environmental problem that could have catastrophic consequences. Recognition for their work came in the form of Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1995. On a recent visit to India,

Crutzen spoke to Ashok B Sharma on the growing concern over the climate change and the need to safeguard the ozone layer. Excerpts: How do you look at the current debate on the global climate change? The impact on the global environment owing to hectic human activity has escalated. Because of this and also due to emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrogen, global climate may change significantly from its natural behaviour for the millennia to come. Today, we live in a

period that can appropriately be called the ‘Anthropocene Period’ – a new geological epoch in which humankind has emerged as a globally significant and potentially important force capable of reshaping the destiny of the planet. This period supplements the warm Holocene Period of the past 10-12 millennia. The Anthropocene Period could be said to have started in the latter part of the 18th century, when analyses of air trapped in polar ice showed the beginning of growing global concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane. To assign a more specific date to the onset of the Anthropocene Period seems somewhat arbitary. Even then, we propose the latter part of the 18th century, which coincides with James Watt’s invention of the steam engine in 1784. We are aware that alternative proposals can be made – some may even want to include the entire Holocene Period. Do you not feel serious attempts are being made through global treaties to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases? Has the Montreal Protocol proceeded well? Public awareness has been generated and some progress has been made, but not enough. I would rather suggest a radical contingency plan as political attempts to limit greenhouse gas emissions are very pitiful. An escape route is needed if the global warming tends to run out of control. I would suggest a method of artificially cooling the global climate by releasing particles of sulphur in the upper atmosphere, which would reflect sunlight and

heat back into space. Any other remedy you would like to propose? Around the world, attempts are being made to control the emission of carbon dioxide. Double bond hydrocarbons are reactive and hence dangerous, while single bond ones are slow in defusing. Molecular diffusion does not play any role in the atmosphere till 100 km. Bio-fuels are being produced which are, by and large, carbon neutral, but we have to see whether they are nitrogen neutral also. Nitrogenous gases

are equally culprits of climate change. I have just sent my article for publication in Nature showing how dangerous nitrogenous gases could be. More nitrogen is now fixed synthetically and applied as fertilisers in agriculture than fixed naturally in all terrestrial eco-system. The escape into the atmosphere of nitrogen dioxide from fossil fuel and biomass combustion likewise is larger than the natural inputs, giving rise to photochemical ozone (smog) formation in extensive regions of the world. We have to study the use of compressed natural gas (CNG) as auto fuels and see how much nitrogenous gases it emits. Methane also contributes to ozone layer depletion. It is generated largely from rice fields. An alternate rice farming method should be in place that could minimise methane emission. You were part of the team that discovered the Asian Brown Cloud (ABC) over the Indian Ocean. What could be its impact on the environment? I was part of the United Nations sponsored

project. We found the Asian Brown Cloud (ABC) over the Indian Ocean. Such brown clouds were also found over Europe in the early days of industrialisation. Asian Brown Cloud was due to pollutants and aerosols emitted in the dry season. Such clouds can inhibit solar radiation, threaten natural cycles and influence rain precipitation levels. But such clouds are a temporary phenomenon and are washed out by rain showers. The press release issued by UNEP overstated the consequences. The scientists are, however, still studying the impact of Asian Brown Cloud. I would rather suggest India give more attention to atmospheric chemistry and find out how it impacts the monsoon rainfall. India has already suffered erratic monsoon in some years leading

to drought.------- ‘Renewable energy to meet 50% of power needs’ http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=160583 ASHOK B SHARMA Posted online : Tuesday, April 10, 2007 at 0000 hours IST NEW DELHI, APR 9: Renewable energy, combined with efficiencies from the ‘smart use’ of energy, can deliver half of India’s primary energy needs by 2050, according to the report: ‘Energy

Revolution: A sustainable Energy Outlook for India’ launched on Monday. Commissioned by the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) and Greenpeace, it provides a blueprint for reducing India’s carbon dioxide emissions by 4% in the next 43 years, while providing secure, affordable energy supply, maintaining steady economic development and without relying on hazardous nuclear technologies. The 100-page report has been developed by specialists from the Institute of Technical Thermodynamics at the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and is part of their global energy outlook which offers solutions to reduce global CO2 emissions by 50% by 2050. “We have been able to provide a blueprint for action at the right time. We have shown that the world can have safe, robust renewable energy and can achieve the efficiencies needed while enjoying economic growth and phasing out damaging and dangerous sources such as coal and nuclear energy, said Greenpeace India executive director Ananthapadmanabhan. K Srinivas, a climate and energy campaigner said, “The scenario up to the year 2050 was developed to address how India could combat climate change while maintaining development. Assuming an average economic

growth of 3.9% for the following decades in a business as usual scenario, CO2 emissions will increase three-folds by 2050. The energy revolution scenario provides practical solutions to increase renewable energy usage and decrease energy consumption by 50% by incorporating energy efficiency measures. The combination will reduce our CO2 emissions to around 1,000 million tonne, stabilising it at the present levels”. According to the report, the contribution of renewables to the electricity mix needs to be gradually increased from the current 4% to 10% by 2010, 20% by 2020 and 65% by 2050. At the same time energy consumption has to be decreased by implementing energy efficiency measures. The report also highlights the

economic advantages of the energy revolution scenario- the market for renewable energy can grow at a double digit rate till 2050, and achieve the size of today's fossil fuel industry. It concludes that renewable energies will constitute the backbone of India's economy. ------------------------- De-carbonise energy use, says Greenpeace http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=160346 ASHOK B SHARMA Posted online : Saturday, April 7, 2007 at 0000 hours IST NEW DELHI, APR 6 : Climate doomsayers have warned India of peril if the country does not de-carbonise its energy use soon. Their reaction followed an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released on Friday. The report pointed to consequences the world would face if greenhouse gas emissions were not curbed. IPCC has been issuing warnings, especially in the wake of polar meltdowns and rising sea levels. The radical Greenpeace movement’s India chapter said, “The writing is on the wall; climate change will hit India very hard. We only have 10 more years to act after that we will be doomed to react. While developed countries need to drastically cut their greenhouse gas emissions, countries like India need to build their economic growth on renewable energy and foster energy efficiency while checking their growing energy demands.” Srinivas Krishnaswamy of Greenpeace India demanded that the government de-carbonise its energy consumption.---------------------------

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