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A classic " panic the public story "

Put out to benefit the pharmaceutical industry

 

 

 

lu pandemic would peak in UK within four months

· Call to double stockpile of anti-viral drugs

· Two-month time lag forecast by researchers

Thursday April 27, 2006

Within two months of the first pandemic flu case

anywhere in the world, it would arrive in the UK. It

would peak here two months later with countless

thousands likely to have died, but the worst would be

over within four months.

That is the most likely scenario for a flu pandemic,

according to results of the first computer simulation

of how the virus would spread across the country. Neil

Ferguson of Imperial College London, who led the

study, said the illness rate could be halved if there

were enough drugs for half of the population. This

would require a doubling of the planned stockpile of

anti-viral drugs.

He believes the pandemic could be slowed if schools

were closed and people living in the same household as

those infected by flu also took anti-viral drugs. He

suggested stockpiling vaccines, even though the exact

strain of flu that will become a pandemic had not been

identified. The government's current plans include

ordering 14.6m courses of anti-virals by September,

enough for a quarter of the UK population. There are

plans to buy 120m doses of vaccine for whichever

strain of flu ends up becoming a pandemic infection.

Sir Liam Donaldson, chief medical officer, said he

welcomed the research. " Our pandemic flu strategy is

based on advice from the scientific advisory group. A

strategy of household prophylaxis will be considered

alongside other possible measures. We will continue to

work with Professor Ferguson to explore the other

options that could protect the public. "

Prof Ferguson's computer model, developed in

conjunction with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of

Public Health and RTI International, built up a

virtual population of UK inhabitants on a computer,

and, using real data, simulated their interactions at

work, school and in homes. " We layer on top of that an

epidemic process, which says something about what the

biological characteristics of a disease are, how long

people are sick for, how long they incubate for, how

infectious are they, " he said.

The computer simulation showed that treating

flu-stricken people would reduce transmission but only

if anti-viral drugs were given quickly, within a day

of the symptoms first appearing. Vaccines would also

need to be available within two months of the start of

the pandemic to have any major impact on the spread of

the disease. This is impossible using current

manufacturing methods, which require up to six months

to produce vaccines after a flu strain has been

identified.

" We should seriously consider stockpiling some vaccine

ahead of the pandemic, " said Prof Ferguson, whose

study appears in Nature today. The Department of

Health said any decision to stockpile vaccines would

be carefully considered. Prof Ferguson said that,

while the UK was ahead of the curve in stockpiling

anti-virals and vaccines, the logistics of making the

drugs available was a major factor in controlling the

spread of pandemic flu. " We need more emphasis on how

we would actually deliver these things in a pandemic, "

he said.

Current government plans suggest the ill should be

treated within 48 hours of developing symptoms. But

this target might be shifted to offer treatment within

24 hours in light of the new models. Prof Ferguson

said emergence of the H5N1 avian flu in recent years

meant the authorities should be prepared for the

worst. " H5N1 is not any more likely to cause a

pandemic but if it did, the likelihood is that it

would cause a more lethal epidemic than other bird flu

strains, " he said. The report coincides with

publication of an 18-month government investigation

into the threat new and emerging infectious diseases

will pose to Britain over the next two decades. At the

launch of the document, Sir David King, the

government's chief scientist, warned that

international travel, trade, changes in land use and

global warming would continue to bring diseases to

Britain. But the report, which drew on the expertise

of 300 scientists from 30 countries, claimed that new

technologies to spot outbreaks of disease early would

dramatically cut death rates, avert the need for mass

animal cullings and save billions of pounds in

battling infectious disease