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Rachel's #737: Environmental Trends--Part 1

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=======================Electronic Edition==================

.. .

.. RACHEL'S ENVIRONMENT & HEALTH NEWS #737 .

.. ---November 8, 2001--- .

.. HEADLINES: .

.. ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS -- PART 1 .

.. ========== .

.. Environmental Research Foundation .

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ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS -- PART 1

 

Every couple of years someone writes a new report claiming that

most environmental problems have been greatly exaggerated or

don't even exist. There are now at least a dozen writers and

publicists who spend their days putting a smiley face on

environmental trends including Gregg Easterbrook (NEW REPUBLIC,

and author, A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, 1995), Michael Fumento

(author, SCIENCE UNDER SIEGE, 1993), Rush Limbaugh (syndicated

radio talker), John Stossel (ABC TV), and John Tierney (NEW YORK

TIMES), among others. Now a Danish mathematician, Bjorn Lomborg,

has joined the ranks of these illuminati with a new book called

THE OPTIMISTIC ENVIRONMENTALIST (2001), which we will review in

the future.

 

The details vary, but the basic message from all these savants is

similar: the environment is not seriously deteriorating; indeed,

it is improving in almost every way. Human population? Growth has

slowed. Forest loss? In many countries, tree cover is expanding.

Global warming? It may not be so bad -- northern winters will be

more pleasant. Toxic chemicals? The worst is past. The real

problem, they say, is all those gloomy environmentalists scaring

us to death simply to raise money.

 

When these contrarian reports grab headlines, the public --

understandably -- doesn't know what to believe. Do environmental

problems really exist or do they exist only in the minds of

environmental wackos and professional doomsayers?

 

To get our bearings in this debate, we can turn to the mainstream

of the mainstream: a new 327-page report titled OECD

ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK [1] from the Organization for Economic

Cooperation and Development, which describes environmental trends

in the OECD's 29 member nations (Australia, Austria, Belgium,

Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,

Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg,

Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,

the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the U.K.

and the U.S.).

 

This is no Chicken Little manifesto from the fringe.

 

The OECD report forecasts environmental trends to the year 2020,

using a traffic signal to highlight major conclusions: green

lights where things are improving and it's OK to " proceed with

caution " (for example, organic agriculture, which is growing at

20% per year); yellow lights for big, important issues that are

still shrouded in uncertainty (such as genetic engineering of

food crops); and red lights for problems that require " urgent

action " because they are likely to " significantly worsen " by

2020. (pg. 279) [Throughout this issue of RACHEL'S, page numbers

refer to the OECD's ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK report.]

 

Here is a bare-bones sketch of the most important " red light "

problems that the OECD has identified:

 

** Human population, worldwide, will grow 1.1% per year between

now and 2020, increasing from 6.1 billion people to 7.5 billion,

or 23%. (pg. 40) This basic trend will impose a 23% greater

burden on the natural environment in the next 20 years.

Furthermore, as household size diminishes (requiring more

individual homes) and urban sprawl increases, the burden imposed

on the environment by each individual is steadily rising, the

OECD says.

 

** Ocean fish provide 20% of all the protein in the human diet

today (pg. 109) but 50% of the world's marine fisheries are

already producing as much as they possibly can, 15% are being

over-fished (an obviously unsustainable practice) and another 7%

are fully depleted. Pressure on the oceans' fisheries will not

decline any time soon because the global fishing fleet now has at

least 30% more capacity than the oceans can supply on a sustained

basis (pg. 113): more and more ships are chasing fewer and fewer

fish. We should not expect increased fish yields from the oceans

between now and 2020, the OECD says, so any increase must come

from fish farming. But fish farms have serious problems of their

own -- large concentrations of fish-waste nutrients, which can

deplete species diversity; large-scale feeding of antibiotics,

which can harm other species and disturb whole ecosystems; and

escaping fish that can drive out native species and spread

disease. (pg. 115) As a consequence of these trends, the OECD

forecasts a 10% decline in marine fish harvest by OECD countries

by 2020. (pg. 112)

 

** Fresh water: The demand for fresh water must rise to keep pace

with population growth, but water pollution is reducing the

useable supply in most countries. As surface waters become

exhausted or polluted, many countries begin pumping their

underground aquifers, but nature replenishes such underground

supplies only slowly. Seventeen countries are already pumping

more water from underground than nature replaces each year. (pg.

102)

 

Furthermore, underground water supplies are being polluted:

" Available evidence suggests that there is a trend towards a

worsening of aquifer water quality in OECD regions. Once

groundwater sources are contaminated, they can be very difficult

to clean up because the rate of flow is usually very slow and

purification measures are often costly, " the OECD says. (pg. 103)

Worse, growing water scarcity is already giving rise to conflicts

within and between countries, the OECD says, a trend likely to

accelerate. (pg. 102)

 

** Forests: Within OECD countries, original " old growth " forests

are being cut and replaced by secondary growth and by simple tree

farms, which require artificial fertilizers and pesticides to

survive. Thus, although the total area of forests is holding

steady in OECD regions, the QUALITY of forested lands, in terms

of natural habitat and biodiversity, is steadily declining. Some

trees may grow quickly but forests take centuries to mature. The

prospect for tropical forests is worse. With 37 million acres

being cut down each year, " Tropical deforestation is expected to

continue at alarming rates over the next few decades, " says the

OECD. (pg. 125) Between now and 2020, the world will lose almost

6% of its total forested land. (pg. 136)

 

** Acid Rain: Acid rain, snow and fog, caused by emissions of

sulphur and nitrogen oxides, damage forests, soils and fresh

water ecosystems. Acid rain " has been identified as an important

factor in forest demise, " says the OECD (pg. 127), and " Current

acid deposition levels in Northern Europe and parts of North

America are at least twice as high as critical levels. " (pg. 190)

In Europe the situation is expected to improve in the next 10

years but elsewhere in the world, it is expected to worsen.

Outside OECD countries, both sulphur and nitrogen oxide emissions

are expected to increase substantially in the next two decades:

" Thus, acid depositions are likely to continue to contribute to

acidification of surface waters and soils in these areas and

reduce the quality of the most sensitive ecosystems. " (pg. 190)

 

** Biodiversity: Humans are relentlessly clearing and plowing up

the habitat needed by other creatures, mostly converting it to

farmland. Then many of the farmlands themselves are being

despoiled by irrigation (which brings salts up from deep soils

and deposits them in the top layers) and by soil erosion.

According to the OECD, two-thirds of the world's farmlands have

already been degraded to some degree and one-third have been

" strongly or very strongly degraded. " (pg. 138) Furthermore, half

the world's wetlands have already been destroyed. (pg. 136) And

the biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems is " under serious

threat " with 20% of the world's fresh water fish extinct,

threatened or endangered. (pg. 138) Half of all primates, and 9%

of all known species of trees are at some risk of extinction, the

OECD says. Between now and 2020, biodiversity in OECD countries

is likely to degrade further. (pg. 138) It is hard to put a

smiley face on the prognosis for biodiversity, the biological

platform upon which all humans depend.

 

** Municipal solid waste, or garbage: In 1995, the average person

in OECD countries created 1100 pounds of garbage each year. By

2020 this is expected to increase 28% to 1400 pounds per person

per year. Because of growing population, total OECD garbage will

increase 43% by 2020, reaching 847 million tons each year. (pgs.

203, 236) Outside the OECD regions, annual garbage production is

expected to more than double by 2020, reaching 1450 million tons

per year. (pg. 237)

 

In 1997, 64% of OECD garbage went to landfills (where it can

contaminate underground water supplies [pg. 242]), 18% was

incinerated (producing a range of noxious air pollutants,

including the notoriously toxic, mobile and long-lived dioxins

and furans [pg. 241]), and 18% was recycled. (pg. 235) By 2020,

the OECD says, only 50% of OECD garbage will be landfilled, 17%

will be incinerated, and 33% will be recycled. (pg. 240) Most

waste ultimately escapes into the general environment in one form

or another.

 

** Hazardous waste: OECD countries presently create 220 pounds of

legally-hazardous waste per person per year. By 2020, per-capita

production will rise 47% to 320 pounds per person per year and,

because of growing population, total OECD hazardous waste will

increase 60% to 194 million tons each year. (pgs. 137, 314)

Significant portions of this will enter the general environment

and eventually begin moving through food chains.

 

A partial survey of 13 out of 29 OECD countries has identified

475,000 sites that may be contaminated by hazardous industrial

chemicals. The OECD estimates the cost of cleaning up these sites

at $330 billion, a large number indeed. (pg. 242)

 

[To be continued next issue.]

--Peter

Montague

 

CORRECTION

 

We inadvertently exaggerated the poor quality of the air in lower

Manhattan last week. Our paragraph read, " Notably, in spite of

EPA's assurances of safety, more than 4000 people have developed

chronic chest pain, a persistent cough now known as " world trade

center cough " and asthma-like (or emphysema-like) breathing

problems from exposure to the air in lower Manhattan. "

 

The paragraph should have read:

 

" Notably, in spite of EPA's assurances of safety, more than 4000

workers at ground zero have developed chronic chest pain, a

persistent cough now known as " world trade center cough " and

asthma-like (or emphysema-like) breathing problems from exposure

to the air at the disaster site. "

 

We apologize for the error. The point we were making remains

unchanged: EPA's conclusion that the air near ground zero is

" safe for workers and residents " rests on incomplete data and

false assumptions.

 

===============

 

[1] Available at http://www1.oecd.org/env/.

 

################################################################

NOTICE

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107 this material is

distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior

interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes.

Environmental Research Foundation provides this electronic

version of RACHEL'S ENVIRONMENT & HEALTH NEWS free of charge even

though it costs the organization considerable time and money to

produce it. We would like to continue to provide this service

free. You could help by making a tax-deductible contribution

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--Peter Montague, Editor

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