Are the US and Iran likely to come to blows?

[Guest guest]

Hello list, An interesting story in the Israel press is that the US is planning a strike on Iran. As you will recall, the President of Iran has recently stated the state of Israel should be abolished and the Jewish people living there sent back to Europe. He is also claiming the holocaust mass murder of millions of Jews in WWII by the Nazi regime is a fabrication of the Jewish settlers of Israel. Both the USA and EU have condemned these remarks. The President of Iran has also banned western music and has said he loathes western culture. Iran is also pushing ahead plans to develop Nuclear fuel, which they claim is only for peaceful purposes. This has alarmed the international community. It is

believed Iran has supported religious islamic groups with links to terrorists, targetting either Israel or the USA and the EU. The question remains if the USA is likely to unilaterally strike at Iran. Maybe it is wishful thinking by the press in Israel that such a strike is possible or even likely. However, a study of the chart of Iran should show the likelihood of such a dramatic event. The chart for the Proclamation of the Islamic Republic in Iran has 24° 24´ Cancer rising. Ra/Ve period is running. Rahu is natally afflicting H2, H6, H8 and H10. Ketu is natally afflicting H8, H12, H2 and H4. L6 Jupiter natally afflicts L3 Mercury and L10 Mars in H9. L8 Saturn natally afflicts L1 Moon in H11. Hence, there are many difficult afflictions in this chart, giving potential for setbacks. Currently, tr Ketu is aspecting natal L1 Moon in H11. Tr L8 Saturn is in H1 under

aspect from tr Rahu and in turn casting a H3 aspect on tr Ketu. Tr Rahu has also been afflicting L2 Sun in H9. In March and April 2006, L6 Jupiter will be stationary afflicting natal Ketu. L4 Venus will be passing through H8. The transit affliction involving Saturn and the nodes, all prime malefics in a Cancer rising chart, will be stationary and close. So, clearly, there is scope for difficulty at that time, even if it is hard to ascertain what that will be. A study of the chart for the USA is needed to see if there a connection there. A preliminary ammended chart for USA with 19° 32´ Scorpio rising, shows that Ve/Sa period is running. L4 Saturn is afflicted in transit by Rahu during the spring of 2006. This suggests the mental calm of the USA is easily disturbed at this time, especially acts of manipulation or cheating. In mid to late April, L6 Mars will be transit conjunct natal L12 Venus in H8, while tr

Venus will be conjunct H4. This could be a time when the USA shows hair trigger responses. However, this is not to say the two countries will collide at this time, only that some strain is visible. The USA may continue to show restraint with regard to Iran, as an attack could send the whole region into a conflagration. Perhaps the President of Iran is aware of that and suspects the US is militarily not as strong in a conventional military sense, and is hoping to unite the Islamic world in a conventional confrontation. That said, it is an interesting and worrying situation, to be sure. Best regards, C Dec. 31, 2005 19:33 | Updated Jan. 1, 2006 6:38'US planning strike against Iran'By JPOST.COM STAFF The United States government reportedly began coordinating with NATO its plans for a possible military attack against Iran. The German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel collected various reports from the German media indicating that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are examining the prospects of such a strike. According to the report, CIA Director Porter Goss, in his last visit to Turkey on December 12, requested Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to provide military bases to the United States in 2006 from where they would be able to launch an assault. The German news agency

DDP also noted that countries neighboring Iran, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, and Pakistan were also updated regarding the supposed plan. American sources sent to those countries apparently mentioned an aerial attack as a possibility, but did not provide a time frame for the operation. Although Der Spiegel could not say that these plans were concrete, they did note that according to a January 2005 New Yorker report American forces had entered Iran in 2005 in order to mark possible targets for an aerial assault. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull & cid=1135696369601

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[Guest guest]

Dear C...

 

Thank you for the post.... it is very intriguing and plausible.

 

David

 

-

Dayamaya Ji

samva

Sunday, January 01, 2006 10:09 AM

Are the US and Iran likely to come to blows?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hello list,

 

An interesting story in the Israel press is that the US is planning a strike on Iran. As you will recall, the President of Iran has recently stated the state of Israel should be abolished and the Jewish people living there sent back to Europe. He is also claiming the holocaust mass murder of millions of Jews in WWII by the Nazi regime is a fabrication of the Jewish settlers of Israel. Both the USA and EU have condemned these remarks. The President of Iran has also banned western music and has said he loathes western culture. Iran is also pushing ahead plans to develop Nuclear fuel, which they claim is only for peaceful purposes. This has alarmed the international community. It is believed Iran has supported religious islamic groups with links to terrorists, targetting either Israel or the USA and the EU.

 

The question remains if the USA is likely to unilaterally strike at Iran. Maybe it is wishful thinking by the press in Israel that such a strike is possible or even likely. However, a study of the chart of Iran should show the likelihood of such a dramatic event.

 

The chart for the Proclamation of the Islamic Republic in Iran has 24° 24´ Cancer rising. Ra/Ve period is running. Rahu is natally afflicting H2, H6, H8 and H10. Ketu is natally afflicting H8, H12, H2 and H4. L6 Jupiter natally afflicts L3 Mercury and L10 Mars in H9. L8 Saturn natally afflicts L1 Moon in H11. Hence, there are many difficult afflictions in this chart, giving potential for setbacks.

 

Currently, tr Ketu is aspecting natal L1 Moon in H11. Tr L8 Saturn is in H1 under aspect from tr Rahu and in turn casting a H3 aspect on tr Ketu. Tr Rahu has also been afflicting L2 Sun in H9.

 

In March and April 2006, L6 Jupiter will be stationary afflicting natal Ketu. L4 Venus will be passing through H8. The transit affliction involving Saturn and the nodes, all prime malefics in a Cancer rising chart, will be stationary and close. So, clearly, there is scope for difficulty at that time, even if it is hard to ascertain what that will be.

 

A study of the chart for the USA is needed to see if there a connection there. A preliminary ammended chart for USA with 19° 32´ Scorpio rising, shows that Ve/Sa period is running. L4 Saturn is afflicted in transit by Rahu during the spring of 2006. This suggests the mental calm of the USA is easily disturbed at this time, especially acts of manipulation or cheating. In mid to late April, L6 Mars will be transit conjunct natal L12 Venus in H8, while tr Venus will be conjunct H4. This could be a time when the USA shows hair trigger responses.

 

However, this is not to say the two countries will collide at this time, only that some strain is visible. The USA may continue to show restraint with regard to Iran, as an attack could send the whole region into a conflagration. Perhaps the President of Iran is aware of that and suspects the US is militarily not as strong in a conventional military sense, and is hoping to unite the Islamic world in a conventional confrontation.

 

That said, it is an interesting and worrying situation, to be sure.

 

Best regards,

 

C

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec. 31, 2005 19:33 | Updated Jan. 1, 2006 6:38'US planning strike against Iran'By JPOST.COM STAFF

 

The United States government reportedly began coordinating with NATO its plans for a possible military attack against Iran. The German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel collected various reports from the German media indicating that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are examining the prospects of such a strike. According to the report, CIA Director Porter Goss, in his last visit to Turkey on December 12, requested Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to provide military bases to the United States in 2006 from where they would be able to launch an assault. The German news agency DDP also noted that countries neighboring Iran, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, and Pakistan were also updated regarding the supposed plan. American sources sent to those countries apparently mentioned an aerial attack as a possibility, but did not provide a time frame for the operation. Although Der Spiegel could not say that these plans were concrete, they did note that according to a January 2005 New Yorker report American forces had entered Iran in 2005 in order to mark possible targets for an aerial assault. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull & cid=1135696369601

 

 

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[Guest guest]

Dear David,

 

It seems the pressure is mounting with regard to Iran, as the two

attached news stories detail.

 

1. Iran is developing a nuclear missile.

2. President Bush consults all living statesmen on US foreign policy

with regard to Iraq " and other issues " .

 

Best regards,

 

C

 

Secret services say Iran is trying to assemble a nuclear missile

 

Document seen by Guardian details web of front companies and

middlemen

 

Ian Cobain and Ian Traynor

Wednesday January 4, 2006

The Guardian

 

The Iranian government has been successfully scouring Europe for the

sophisticated equipment needed to develop a nuclear bomb, according

to the latest western intelligence assessment of the country's

weapons programmes.

Scientists in Tehran are also shopping for parts for a ballistic

missile capable of reaching Europe, with " import requests and

acquisitions ... registered almost daily " , the report seen by the

Guardian concludes.

 

The warning came as Iran raised the stakes in its dispute with the

United States and the European Union yesterday by notifying the

International Atomic Energy Authority that it intended to resume

nuclear fuel research next week. Tehran has refused to rule out a

return to attempts at uranium enrichment, the key to the development

of a nuclear weapon.

 

The 55-page intelligence assessment, dated July 1 2005, draws upon

material gathered by British, French, German and Belgian agencies,

and has been used to brief European government ministers and to warn

leading industrialists of the need for vigilance when exporting

equipment or expertise to so-called rogue states.

It concludes that Syria and Pakistan have also been buying technology

and chemicals needed to develop rocket programmes and to enrich

uranium. It outlines the role played by Russia in the escalating

Middle East arms build-up, and examines the part that dozens of

Chinese front companies have played in North Korea's nuclear weapons

programme.

 

But it is the detailed assessment of Iran's nuclear purchasing

programme that will most most alarm western leaders, who have long

refused to believe Tehran's insistence that it is not interested in

developing nuclear weapons and is trying only to develop nuclear

power for electricity. Governments in the west and elsewhere have

also been dismayed by recent pronouncements from the Iranian

president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has said that Holocaust denial is

a " scientific debate " and that Israel should be " wiped off the map " .

 

The leak of the intelligence report may signal a growing frustration

at Iran's refusal to bow to western demands that it abandon its

programme to produce fuel for a Russian-built nuclear reactor due to

come on stream this year.

 

The assessment declares that Iran has developed an extensive web of

front companies, official bodies, academic institutes and middlemen

dedicated to obtaining - in western Europe and in the former Soviet

Union - the expertise, training, and equipment for nuclear

programmes, missile development, and biological and chemical weapons

arsenals.

 

" In addition to sensitive goods, Iran continues intensively to seek

the technology and know-how for military applications of all kinds, "

it says.

 

The document lists scores of Iranian companies and institutions

involved in the arms race. It also details Tehran's growing

determination to perfect a ballistic missile capable of delivering

warheads far beyond its borders.

 

It notes that Iran harbours ambitions of developing a space

programme, but is currently concentrating on upgrading and extending

the range of its Shahab-3 missile, which has a range of 750 miles -

capable of reaching Israel.

 

Iranian scientists are said to be building wind tunnels to assist in

missile design, developing navigation technology, and acquiring

metering and calibration technology, motion simulators and x-ray

machines designed to examine rocket parts. The next generation of the

Shahab ( " shooting star " in Persian) should be capable of reaching

Austria and Italy (...AND ISRAEL).

 

 

VOICES FROM THE PAST: In an unusual move, the White House has invited

all living secretaries of defense and state to White House on Thurs.

for discussion with Bush about Iraq policy... Developing...

 

From Cabinet Rooms Past, a Gathering to Assess Iraq

 

By DAVID E. SANGER

Published: January 4, 2006

WASHINGTON, Jan. 3 - It will be an unusual sight on Thursday in the

Roosevelt Room of White House, and deliberately so: President Bush

will engage in a consultation of sorts with a bipartisan collection

of former secretaries of state and defense.

 

Pablo Martinez Monsivais/Associated Press

In May, after Colin L. Powell left office, Mr. Bush had hugs for him.

There could be more tomorrow.

 

Among them will be several who have left little doubt that they think

Mr. Bush has dangerously mishandled Iraq, ignored other looming

crises, and put critical alliances at risk.

 

The meeting was called by the White House, which sent out invitations

just before Christmas to everyone who once held those jobs.

 

The invitees were told that they were being asked to attend a

briefing on Iraq AND OTHER ISSUES. It was unclear, one recipient

said, " how interested they are in what we are thinking. "

 

 

SAMVA , " David Hawthorne " <david@i...> wrote:

>

> Dear C...

>

> Thank you for the post.... it is very intriguing and plausible.

>

> David

> -

> Dayamaya Ji

> samva

> Sunday, January 01, 2006 10:09 AM

> Are the US and Iran likely to come to blows?

>

>

> Hello list,

>

> An interesting story in the Israel press is that the

US is planning a strike on Iran. As you will recall, the President of

Iran has recently stated the state of Israel should be abolished and

the Jewish people living there sent back to Europe. He is also

claiming the holocaust mass murder of millions of Jews in WWII by the

Nazi regime is a fabrication of the Jewish settlers of Israel. Both

the USA and EU have condemned these remarks. The President of Iran

has also banned western music and has said he loathes western

culture. Iran is also pushing ahead plans to develop Nuclear fuel,

which they claim is only for peaceful purposes. This has alarmed the

international community. It is believed Iran has supported religious

islamic groups with links to terrorists, targetting either Israel or

the USA and the EU.

>

> The question remains if the USA is likely to

unilaterally strike at Iran. Maybe it is wishful thinking by the

press in Israel that such a strike is possible or even likely.

However, a study of the chart of Iran should show the likelihood of

such a dramatic event.

>

> The chart for the Proclamation of the Islamic

Republic in Iran has 24° 24´ Cancer rising. Ra/Ve period is running.

Rahu is natally afflicting H2, H6, H8 and H10. Ketu is natally

afflicting H8, H12, H2 and H4. L6 Jupiter natally afflicts L3 Mercury

and L10 Mars in H9. L8 Saturn natally afflicts L1 Moon in H11. Hence,

there are many difficult afflictions in this chart, giving potential

for setbacks.

>

> Currently, tr Ketu is aspecting natal L1 Moon in H11.

Tr L8 Saturn is in H1 under aspect from tr Rahu and in turn casting a

H3 aspect on tr Ketu. Tr Rahu has also been afflicting L2 Sun in H9.

>

> In March and April 2006, L6 Jupiter will be

stationary afflicting natal Ketu. L4 Venus will be passing through

H8. The transit affliction involving Saturn and the nodes, all prime

malefics in a Cancer rising chart, will be stationary and close. So,

clearly, there is scope for difficulty at that time, even if it is

hard to ascertain what that will be.

>

> A study of the chart for the USA is needed to see if

there a connection there. A preliminary ammended chart for USA with

19° 32´ Scorpio rising, shows that Ve/Sa period is running. L4 Saturn

is afflicted in transit by Rahu during the spring of 2006. This

suggests the mental calm of the USA is easily disturbed at this time,

especially acts of manipulation or cheating. In mid to late April, L6

Mars will be transit conjunct natal L12 Venus in H8, while tr Venus

will be conjunct H4. This could be a time when the USA shows hair

trigger responses.

>

> However, this is not to say the two countries will

collide at this time, only that some strain is visible. The USA may

continue to show restraint with regard to Iran, as an attack could

send the whole region into a conflagration. Perhaps the President of

Iran is aware of that and suspects the US is militarily not as strong

in a conventional military sense, and is hoping to unite the Islamic

world in a conventional confrontation.

>

> That said, it is an interesting and worrying

situation, to be sure.

>

> Best regards,

>

> C

>

>

>

> Dec. 31, 2005 19:33 | Updated Jan. 1, 2006 6:38

> 'US planning strike against Iran'

> By JPOST.COM STAFF

>

> The United States government reportedly began

coordinating with NATO its plans for a possible military attack

against Iran.

> The German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel collected

various reports from the German media indicating that the North

Atlantic Treaty Organization are examining the prospects of such a

strike.

> According to the report, CIA Director Porter Goss, in

his last visit to Turkey on December 12, requested Prime Minister

Recep Tayyip Erdogan to provide military bases to the United States

in 2006 from where they would be able to launch an assault.

> The German news agency DDP also noted that countries

neighboring Iran, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, and Pakistan

were also updated regarding the supposed plan. American sources sent

to those countries apparently mentioned an aerial attack as a

possibility, but did not provide a time frame for the operation.

> Although Der Spiegel could not say that these plans

were concrete, they did note that according to a January 2005 New

Yorker report American forces had entered Iran in 2005 in order to

mark possible targets for an aerial assault.

> http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost%

2FJPArticle%2FShowFull & cid=1135696369601

>

>

>

> --

----------

> Shopping

> Find Great Deals on Holiday Gifts at Shopping

>

>

[Guest guest]

Hello list,

 

Here is some information about US policy in the middle east,

including an essay on deliberations concerning Iran, written last

year by a former US government official. Clearly, there is a lot of

underlying tension there.

 

Best regards,

 

C

 

- " This notion that the United States is getting ready to attack Iran

is simply ridiculous...Having said that, all options are on the

table. " - President George W. Bush, February 2005

 

Petrodollar Warfare: Dollars, Euros and the Upcoming Iranian Oil

Bourse, by William R. Clark (Friday August 05 2005)

 

Contemporary warfare has traditionally involved underlying conflicts

regarding economics and resources. Today these intertwined conflicts

also involve international currencies, and thus increased complexity.

Current geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran

extend beyond the publicly stated concerns regarding Iran's nuclear

intentions, and likely include a proposed Iranian " petroeuro " system

for oil trade. Similar to the Iraq war, military operations against

Iran relate to the macroeconomics of 'petrodollar recycling' and the

unpublicized but real challenge to U.S. dollar supremacy from the

euro as an alternative oil transaction currency.

 

It is now obvious the invasion of Iraq had less to do with any threat

from Saddam's long-gone WMD program and certainly less to do to do

with fighting International terrorism than it has to do with gaining

strategic control over Iraq's hydrocarbon reserves and in doing so

maintain the U.S. dollar as the monopoly currency for the critical

international oil market. Throughout 2004 information provided by

former administration insiders revealed the Bush/Cheney

administration entered into office with the intention of toppling

Saddam.[1][2] Candidly stated, 'Operation Iraqi Freedom' was a war

designed to install a pro-U.S. government in Iraq, establish multiple

U.S military bases before the onset of global Peak Oil, and to

reconvert Iraq back to petrodollars while hoping to thwart further

OPEC momentum towards the euro as an alternative oil transaction

currency ( i.e. " petroeuro " ).[3] However, subsequent geopolitical

events have exposed neoconservative strategy as fundamentally flawed,

with Iran moving towards a petroeuro system for international oil

trades, while Russia evaluates this option with the European Union.

 

In 2003 the global community witnessed a combination of petrodollar

warfare and oil depletion warfare. The majority of the world's

governments – especially the E.U., Russia and China – were not

amused – and neither are the U.S. soldiers who are currently

stationed inside a hostile Iraq. In 2002 I wrote an award-winning

online essay that asserted Saddam Hussein sealed his fate when he

announced on September 2000 that Iraq was no longer going to accept

dollars for oil being sold under the UN's Oil-for-Food program, and

decided to switch to the euro as Iraq's oil export currency.[4]

Indeed, my original pre-war hypothesis was validated in a Financial

Times article dated June 5, 2003, which confirmed Iraqi oil sales

returning to the international markets were once again denominated in

U.S. dollars – not euros.

 

The tender, for which bids are due by June 10, switches the

transaction back to dollars -- the international currency of oil

sales - despite the greenback's recent fall in value. Saddam Hussein

in 2000 insisted Iraq's oil be sold for euros, a political move, but

one that improved Iraq's recent earnings thanks to the rise in the

value of the euro against the dollar. [5]

 

The Bush administration implemented this currency transition despite

the adverse impact on profits from Iraqi's export oil sales.[6] (In

mid-2003 the euro was valued approx. 13% higher than the dollar, and

thus significantly impacted the ability of future oil proceeds to

rebuild Iraq's infrastructure). Not surprisingly, this detail has

never been mentioned in the five U.S. major media conglomerates who

control 90% of information flow in the U.S., but confirmation of this

vital fact provides insight into one of the crucial – yet overlooked –

rationales for 2003 the Iraq war.

 

Concerning Iran, recent articles have revealed active Pentagon

planning for operations against its suspected nuclear facilities.

While the publicly stated reasons for any such overt action will be

premised as a consequence of Iran's nuclear ambitions, there are

again unspoken macroeconomic drivers underlying the second stage of

petrodollar warfare – Iran's upcoming oil bourse. (The word bourse

refers to a stock exchange for securities trading, and is derived

from the French stock exchange in Paris, the Federation

Internationale des Bourses de Valeurs.)

 

In essence, Iran is about to commit a far greater " offense " than

Saddam Hussein's conversion to the euro for Iraq's oil exports in the

fall of 2000. Beginning in March 2006, the Tehran government has

plans to begin competing with New York's NYMEX and London's IPE with

respect to international oil trades – using a euro-based

international oil-trading mechanism.[7] The proposed Iranian oil

bourse signifies that without some sort of US intervention, the euro

is going to establish a firm foothold in the international oil trade.

Given U.S. debt levels and the stated neoconservative project of U.S.

global domination, Tehran's objective constitutes an obvious

encroachment on dollar supremacy in the crucial international oil

market.

 

From the autumn of 2004 through August 2005, numerous leaks by

concerned Pentagon employees have revealed that the neoconservatives

in Washington are quietly – but actively – planning for a possible

attack against Iran. In September 2004 Newsweek reported:

 

Deep in the Pentagon, admirals and generals are updating plans for

possible U.S. military action in Syria and Iran. The Defense

Department unit responsible for military planning for the two

troublesome countries is " busier than ever, " an administration

official says. Some Bush advisers characterize the work as merely an

effort to revise routine plans the Pentagon maintains for all

contingencies in light of the Iraq war. More skittish bureaucrats say

the updates are accompanied by a revived campaign by administration

conservatives and neocons for more hard-line U.S. policies toward the

countries…'

 

…administration hawks are pinning their hopes on regime change in

Tehran – by covert means, preferably, but by force of arms if

necessary. Papers on the idea have circulated inside the

administration, mostly labeled " draft " or " working draft " to evade

congressional subpoena powers and the Freedom of Information Act.

Informed sources say the memos echo the administration's abortive

Iraq strategy: oust the existing regime, swiftly install a pro-U.S.

government in its place (extracting the new regime's promise to

renounce any nuclear ambitions) and get out. This daredevil scheme

horrifies U.S. military leaders, and there's no evidence that it has

won any backers at the cabinet level. [8]

 

Indeed, there are good reasons for U.S. military commanders to

be 'horrified' at the prospects of attacking Iran. In the December

2004 issue of the Atlantic Monthly, James Fallows reported that

numerous high-level war-gaming sessions had recently been completed

by Sam Gardiner, a retired Air Force colonel who has run war games at

the National War College for the past two decades.[9] Col. Gardiner

summarized the outcome of these war games with this statement, " After

all this effort, I am left with two simple sentences for

policymakers: You have no military solution for the issues of Iran.

And you have to make diplomacy work. " Despite Col. Gardiner's

warnings, yet another story appeared in early 2005 that reiterated

this administration's intentions towards Iran. Investigative reporter

Seymour Hersh's article in The New Yorker included interviews with

various high-level U.S. intelligence sources. Hersh wrote:

 

In my interviews [with former high-level intelligence officials], I

was repeatedly told that the next strategic target was Iran. Everyone

is saying, 'You can't be serious about targeting Iran. Look at Iraq,'

the former [CIA] intelligence official told me. But the [bush

administration officials] say, 'We've got some lessons learned – not

militarily, but how we did it politically. We're not going to rely on

agency pissants.' No loose ends, and that's why the C.I.A. is out of

there. [10]

 

The most recent, and by far the most troubling, was an article in The

American Conservative by intelligence analyst Philip Giraldi. His

article, " In Case of Emergency, Nuke Iran, " suggested the

resurrection of active U.S. military planning against Iran – but with

the shocking disclosure that in the event of another 9/11-type

terrorist attack on U.S. soil, Vice President Dick Cheney's office

wants the Pentagon to be prepared to launch a potential tactical

nuclear attack on Iran – even if the Iranian government was not

involved with any such terrorist attack against the U.S.:

 

The Pentagon, acting under instructions from Vice President Dick

Cheney's office, has tasked the United States Strategic Command

(STRATCOM) with drawing up a contingency plan to be employed in

response to another 9/11-type terrorist attack on the United States.

The plan includes a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both

conventional and tactical nuclear weapons. Within Iran there are more

than 450 major strategic targets, including numerous suspected

nuclear-weapons-program development sites. Many of the targets are

hardened or are deep underground and could not be taken out by

conventional weapons, hence the nuclear option. As in the case of

Iraq, the response is not conditional on Iran actually being involved

in the act of terrorism directed against the United States. Several

senior Air Force officers involved in the planning are reportedly

appalled at the implications of what they are doing – that Iran is

being set up for an unprovoked nuclear attack – but no one is

prepared to damage his career by posing any objections. [11]

 

Why would the Vice President instruct the U.S. military to prepare

plans for what could likely be an unprovoked nuclear attack against

Iran? Setting aside the grave moral implications for a moment, it is

remarkable to note that during the same week this " nuke Iran " article

appeared, the Washington Post reported that the most recent National

Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of Iran's nuclear program revealed

that, " Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key

ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous

estimate of five years. " [12] This article carefully noted this

assessment was a " consensus among U.S. intelligence agencies, [and

in] contrast with forceful public statements by the White House. " The

question remains, Why would the Vice President advocate a possible

tactical nuclear attack against Iran in the event of another major

terrorist attack against the U.S. – even if Tehran was innocent of

involvement?

 

Perhaps one of the answers relates to the same obfuscated reasons why

the U.S. launched an unprovoked invasion to topple the Iraq

government – macroeconomics and the desperate desire to maintain U.S.

economic supremacy. In essence, petrodollar hegemony is eroding,

which will ultimately force the U.S. to significantly change its

current tax, debt, trade, and energy policies, all of which are

severely unbalanced. World oil production is reportedly " flat out, "

and yet the neoconservatives are apparently willing to undertake huge

strategic and tactical risks in the Persian Gulf. Why? Quite simply –

their stated goal is U.S. global domination – at any cost.

 

To date, one of the more difficult technical obstacles concerning a

euro-based oil transaction trading system is the lack of a euro-

denominated oil pricing standard, or oil 'marker' as it is referred

to in the industry. The three current oil markers are U.S. dollar

denominated, which include the West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI),

Norway Brent crude, and the UAE Dubai crude. However, since the

summer of 2003 Iran has required payments in the euro currency for

its European and Asian/ACU exports – although the oil pricing these

trades was still denominated in the dollar.[13]

 

Therefore a potentially significant news story was reported in June

2004 announcing Iran's intentions to create of an Iranian oil bourse.

This announcement portended competition would arise between the

Iranian oil bourse and London's International Petroleum Exchange

(IPE), as well as the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). [both the

IPE and NYMEX are owned by U.S. consortium, and operated by an

Atlanta-based corporation, IntercontinentalExchange, Inc.]

 

The macroeconomic implications of a successful Iranian bourse are

noteworthy. Considering that in mid-2003 Iran switched its oil

payments from E.U. and ACU customers to the euro, and thus it is

logical to assume the proposed Iranian bourse will usher in a fourth

crude oil marker – denominated in the euro currency. This event would

remove the main technical obstacle for a broad-based petroeuro system

for international oil trades. From a purely economic and monetary

perspective, a petroeuro system is a logical development given that

the European Union imports more oil from OPEC producers than does the

U.S., and the E.U. accounted for 45% of exports sold to the Middle

East. (Following the May 2004 enlargement, this percentage likely

increased).

 

Despite the complete absence of coverage from the five U.S. corporate

media conglomerates, these foreign news stories suggest one of the

Federal Reserve's nightmares may begin to unfold in the spring of

2006, when it appears that international buyers will have a choice of

buying a barrel of oil for $60 dollars on the NYMEX and IPE - or

purchase a barrel of oil for €45 - €50 euros via the Iranian Bourse.

This assumes the euro maintains its current 20-25% appreciated value

relative to the dollar – and assumes that some sort of

US " intervention " is not launched against Iran. The upcoming bourse

will introduce petrodollar versus petroeuro currency hedging, and

fundamentally new dynamics to the biggest market in the world -

global oil and gas trades. In essence, the U.S. will no longer be

able to effortlessly expand credit via U.S. Treasury bills, and the

dollar's demand/liquidity value will fall.

 

It is unclear at the time of writing if this project will be

successful, or could it prompt overt or covert U.S. interventions –

thereby signaling the second phase of petrodollar warfare in the

Middle East. Regardless of the potential U.S. response to an Iranian

petroeuro system, the emergence of an oil exchange market in the

Middle East is not entirely surprising given the domestic peaking and

decline of oil exports in the U.S. and U.K, in comparison to the

remaining oil reserves in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. What we are

witnessing is a battle for oil currency supremacy. If Iran's oil

bourse becomes a successful alternative for international oil trades,

it would challenge the hegemony currently enjoyed by the financial

centers in both London (IPE) and New York (NYMEX), a factor not

overlooked in the following (UK) Guardian article:

 

Iran is to launch an oil trading market for Middle East and Opec

producers that could threaten the supremacy of London's International

Petroleum Exchange.

 

…Some industry experts have warned the Iranians and other OPEC

producers that western exchanges are controlled by big financial and

oil corporations, which have a vested interest in market volatility.

[emphasis added]

 

The IPE, bought in 2001 by a consortium that includes BP, Goldman

Sachs and Morgan Stanley, was unwilling to discuss the Iranian move

yesterday. " We would not have any comment to make on it at this

stage, " said an IPE spokeswoman. [14]

 

During an important speech in April 2002, Mr. Javad Yarjani, an OPEC

executive, described three pivotal events that would facilitate an

OPEC transition to euros.[15] He stated this would be based on (1) if

and when Norway's Brent crude is re-dominated in euros, (2) if and

when the U.K. adopts the euro, and (3) whether or not the euro gains

parity valuation relative to the dollar, and the EU's proposed

expansion plans were successful. Notably, both of the later two

criteria have transpired: the euro's valuation has been above the

dollar since late 2002, and the euro-based E.U. enlarged in May 2004

from 12 to 22 countries. Despite recent " no " votes by French and

Dutch voters regarding a common E.U. Constitution, from a

macroeconomic perspective, these domestic disagreements do no reduce

the euro currency's trajectory in the global financial markets – and

from Russia and OPEC's perspective – do not adversely impact momentum

towards a petroeuro. In the meantime, the U.K. remains uncomfortably

juxtaposed between the financial interests of the U.S. banking nexus

(New York/Washington) and the E.U. financial centers

(Paris/Frankfurt).

 

The most recent news reports indicate the oil bourse will start

trading on March 20, 2006, coinciding with the Iranian New Year.[16]

The implementation of the proposed Iranian oil Bourse – if successful

in utilizing the euro as its oil transaction currency standard –

essentially negates the previous two criteria as described by Mr.

Yarjani regarding the solidification of a petroeuro system for

international oil trades. It should also be noted that throughout

2003-2004 both Russia and China significantly increased their central

bank holdings of the euro, which appears to be a coordinated move to

facilitate the anticipated ascendance of the euro as a second World

Reserve Currency. [17] [18] China's announcement in July 2005 that is

was re-valuing the yuan/RNB was not nearly as important as its

decision to divorce itself form a U.S. dollar peg by moving towards

a " basket of currencies " – likely to include the yen, euro, and

dollar.[19] Additionally, the Chinese re-valuation immediately

lowered their monthly imported " oil bill " by 2%, given that oil

trades are still priced in dollars, but it is unclear how much longer

this monopoly arrangement will last.

 

Furthermore, the geopolitical stakes for the Bush administration were

raised dramatically on October 28, 2004, when Iran and China signed a

huge oil and gas trade agreement (valued between $70 - $100 billion

dollars.) [20] It should also be noted that China currently receives

13% of its oil imports from Iran. In the aftermath of the Iraq

invasion, the U.S.-administered Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA)

nullified previous oil lease contracts from 1997-2002 that France,

Russia, China and other nations had established under the Saddam

regime. The nullification of these contracts worth a reported $1.1

trillion created political tensions between the U.S and the European

Union, Russia and China. The Chinese government may fear the same

fate awaits their oil investments in Iran if the U.S. were able to

attack and topple the Tehran government. Despite U.S. desires to

enforce petrodollar hegemony, the geopolitical risks of an attack on

Iran's nuclear facilities would surely create a serious crisis

between Washington and Beijing.

 

It is increasingly clear that a confrontation and possible war with

Iran may transpire during the second Bush term. Clearly, there are

numerous tactical risks regarding neoconservative strategy towards

Iran. First, unlike Iraq, Iran has a robust military capability.

Secondly, a repeat of any " Shock and Awe " tactics is not advisable

given that Iran has installed sophisticated anti-ship missiles on the

Island of Abu Musa, and therefore controls the critical Strait of

Hormuz – where all of the Persian Gulf bound oil tankers must pass.

[22] The immediate question for Americans? Will the neoconservatives

attempt to intervene covertly and/or overtly in Iran during 2005 or

2006 in a desperate effort to prevent the initiation of euro-

denominated international crude oil sales? Commentators in India are

quite correct in their assessment that a U.S. intervention in Iran is

likely to prove disastrous for the United States, making matters much

worse regarding international terrorism, not to the mention potential

effects on the U.S. economy.

 

…If it [ U.S.] intervenes again, it is absolutely certain it will not

be able to improve the situation…There is a better way, as the

constructive engagement of Libya's Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has

shown...Iran is obviously a more complex case than Libya, because

power resides in the clergy, and Iran has not been entirely

transparent about its nuclear programme, but the sensible way is to

take it gently, and nudge it to moderation. Regime change will only

worsen global Islamist terror, and in any case, Saudi Arabia is a

fitter case for democratic intervention, if at all. [21]

 

A successful Iranian bourse will solidify the petroeuro as an

alternative oil transaction currency, and thereby end the

petrodollar's hegemonic status as the monopoly oil currency.

Therefore, a graduated approach is needed to avoid precipitous U.S.

economic dislocations. Multilateral compromise with the EU and OPEC

regarding oil currency is certainly preferable to an 'Operation

Iranian Freedom,' or perhaps another CIA-backed coup such as

operation " Ajax " from 1953. Despite the impressive power of the U.S.

military, and the ability of our intelligence agencies to

facilitate 'interventions,' it would be perilous and possibly ruinous

for the U.S. to intervene in Iran given the dire situation in Iraq.

The Monterey Institute of International Studies warned of the

possible consequences of a preemptive attack on Iran's nuclear

facilities:

 

An attack on Iranian nuclear facilities…could have various adverse

effects on U.S. interests in the Middle East and the world. Most

important, in the absence of evidence of an Iranian illegal nuclear

program, an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by the U.S. or Israel

would be likely to strengthen Iran's international stature and reduce

the threat of international sanctions against Iran. [23]

 

Synopsis:

 

It is not yet clear if a U.S. military expedition will occur in a

desperate attempt to maintain petrodollar supremacy. Regardless of

the recent National Intelligence Estimate that down-played Iran's

potential nuclear weapons program, it appears increasingly likely the

Bush administration may use the specter of nuclear weapon

proliferation as a pretext for an intervention, similar to the fears

invoked in the previous WMD campaign regarding Iraq. If recent

stories are correct regarding Cheney's plan to possibly use a another

9/11 terrorist attack as the pretext or casus belli for a U.S. aerial

attack against Iran, this would confirm the Bush administration is

prepared to undertake a desperate military strategy to thwart Iran's

nuclear ambitions, while simultaneously attempting to prevent the

Iranian oil Bourse from initiating a euro-based system for oil

trades.

 

However, as members of the U.N. Security Council; China, Russia and

E.U. nations such as France and Germany would likely veto any U.S.-

sponsored U.N. Security Resolution calling the use of force without

solid proof of Iranian culpability in a major terrorist attack. A

unilateral U.S. military strike on Iran would isolate the U.S.

government in the eyes of the world community, and it is conceivable

that such an overt action could provoke other industrialized nations

to strategically abandon the dollar en masse. Indeed, such an event

would create pressure for OPEC or Russia to move towards a petroeuro

system in an effort to cripple the U.S. economy and its global

military presence. I refer to this in my book as the " rogue nation

hypothesis. "

 

While central bankers throughout the world community would be

extremely reluctant to 'dump the dollar,' the reasons for any such

drastic reaction are likely straightforward from their perspective –

the global community is dependent on the oil and gas energy supplies

found in the Persian Gulf. Hence, industrialized nations would likely

move in tandem on the currency exchange markets in an effort to

thwart the neoconservatives from pursuing their desperate strategy of

dominating the world's largest hydrocarbon energy supply. Any such

efforts that resulted in a dollar currency crisis would be

undertaken – not to cripple the U.S. dollar and economy as punishment

towards the American people per se – but rather to thwart further

unilateral warfare and its potentially destructive effects on the

critical oil production and shipping infrastructure in the Persian

Gulf. Barring a U.S. attack, it appears imminent that Iran's euro-

denominated oil bourse will open in March 2006. Logically, the most

appropriate U.S. strategy is compromise with the E.U. and OPEC

towards a dual-currency system for international oil trades.

 

Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be

dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other.

War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and

taxes...known instruments for bringing the many under the domination

of the few…No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of

continual warfare.

 

-- James Madison, Political Observations, 1795

 

Source: http://usa.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/17450

by courtesy & © 2005 William R. Clark

 

SAMVA , " cosmologer " <cosmologer> wrote:

>

> Dear David,

>

> It seems the pressure is mounting with regard to Iran, as the two

> attached news stories detail.

>

> 1. Iran is developing a nuclear missile.

> 2. President Bush consults all living statesmen on US foreign

policy

> with regard to Iraq " and other issues " .

>

> Best regards,

>

> C

>

> Secret services say Iran is trying to assemble a nuclear missile

>

> Document seen by Guardian details web of front companies and

> middlemen

>

> Ian Cobain and Ian Traynor

> Wednesday January 4, 2006

> The Guardian

>

> The Iranian government has been successfully scouring Europe for

the

> sophisticated equipment needed to develop a nuclear bomb, according

> to the latest western intelligence assessment of the country's

> weapons programmes.

> Scientists in Tehran are also shopping for parts for a ballistic

> missile capable of reaching Europe, with " import requests and

> acquisitions ... registered almost daily " , the report seen by the

> Guardian concludes.

>

> The warning came as Iran raised the stakes in its dispute with the

> United States and the European Union yesterday by notifying the

> International Atomic Energy Authority that it intended to resume

> nuclear fuel research next week. Tehran has refused to rule out a

> return to attempts at uranium enrichment, the key to the

development

> of a nuclear weapon.

>

> The 55-page intelligence assessment, dated July 1 2005, draws upon

> material gathered by British, French, German and Belgian agencies,

> and has been used to brief European government ministers and to

warn

> leading industrialists of the need for vigilance when exporting

> equipment or expertise to so-called rogue states.

> It concludes that Syria and Pakistan have also been buying

technology

> and chemicals needed to develop rocket programmes and to enrich

> uranium. It outlines the role played by Russia in the escalating

> Middle East arms build-up, and examines the part that dozens of

> Chinese front companies have played in North Korea's nuclear

weapons

> programme.

>

> But it is the detailed assessment of Iran's nuclear purchasing

> programme that will most most alarm western leaders, who have long

> refused to believe Tehran's insistence that it is not interested in

> developing nuclear weapons and is trying only to develop nuclear

> power for electricity. Governments in the west and elsewhere have

> also been dismayed by recent pronouncements from the Iranian

> president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has said that Holocaust denial

is

> a " scientific debate " and that Israel should be " wiped off the map " .

>

> The leak of the intelligence report may signal a growing

frustration

> at Iran's refusal to bow to western demands that it abandon its

> programme to produce fuel for a Russian-built nuclear reactor due

to

> come on stream this year.

>

> The assessment declares that Iran has developed an extensive web of

> front companies, official bodies, academic institutes and middlemen

> dedicated to obtaining - in western Europe and in the former Soviet

> Union - the expertise, training, and equipment for nuclear

> programmes, missile development, and biological and chemical

weapons

> arsenals.

>

> " In addition to sensitive goods, Iran continues intensively to seek

> the technology and know-how for military applications of all

kinds, "

> it says.

>

> The document lists scores of Iranian companies and institutions

> involved in the arms race. It also details Tehran's growing

> determination to perfect a ballistic missile capable of delivering

> warheads far beyond its borders.

>

> It notes that Iran harbours ambitions of developing a space

> programme, but is currently concentrating on upgrading and

extending

> the range of its Shahab-3 missile, which has a range of 750 miles -

> capable of reaching Israel.

>

> Iranian scientists are said to be building wind tunnels to assist

in

> missile design, developing navigation technology, and acquiring

> metering and calibration technology, motion simulators and x-ray

> machines designed to examine rocket parts. The next generation of

the

> Shahab ( " shooting star " in Persian) should be capable of reaching

> Austria and Italy (...AND ISRAEL).

>

>

> VOICES FROM THE PAST: In an unusual move, the White House has

invited

> all living secretaries of defense and state to White House on

Thurs.

> for discussion with Bush about Iraq policy... Developing...

>

> From Cabinet Rooms Past, a Gathering to Assess Iraq

>

> By DAVID E. SANGER

> Published: January 4, 2006

> WASHINGTON, Jan. 3 - It will be an unusual sight on Thursday in the

> Roosevelt Room of White House, and deliberately so: President Bush

> will engage in a consultation of sorts with a bipartisan collection

> of former secretaries of state and defense.

>

> Pablo Martinez Monsivais/Associated Press

> In May, after Colin L. Powell left office, Mr. Bush had hugs for

him.

> There could be more tomorrow.

>

> Among them will be several who have left little doubt that they

think

> Mr. Bush has dangerously mishandled Iraq, ignored other looming

> crises, and put critical alliances at risk.

>

> The meeting was called by the White House, which sent out

invitations

> just before Christmas to everyone who once held those jobs.

>

> The invitees were told that they were being asked to attend a

> briefing on Iraq AND OTHER ISSUES. It was unclear, one recipient

> said, " how interested they are in what we are thinking. "

>

>

> SAMVA , " David Hawthorne " <david@i...> wrote:

> >

> > Dear C...

> >

> > Thank you for the post.... it is very intriguing and plausible.

> >

> > David

> > -

> > Dayamaya Ji

> > samva

> > Sunday, January 01, 2006 10:09 AM

> > Are the US and Iran likely to come to blows?

> >

> >

> > Hello list,

> >

> > An interesting story in the Israel press is that

the

> US is planning a strike on Iran. As you will recall, the President

of

> Iran has recently stated the state of Israel should be abolished

and

> the Jewish people living there sent back to Europe. He is also

> claiming the holocaust mass murder of millions of Jews in WWII by

the

> Nazi regime is a fabrication of the Jewish settlers of Israel. Both

> the USA and EU have condemned these remarks. The President of Iran

> has also banned western music and has said he loathes western

> culture. Iran is also pushing ahead plans to develop Nuclear fuel,

> which they claim is only for peaceful purposes. This has alarmed

the

> international community. It is believed Iran has supported

religious

> islamic groups with links to terrorists, targetting either Israel

or

> the USA and the EU.

> >

> > The question remains if the USA is likely to

> unilaterally strike at Iran. Maybe it is wishful thinking by the

> press in Israel that such a strike is possible or even likely.

> However, a study of the chart of Iran should show the likelihood of

> such a dramatic event.

> >

> > The chart for the Proclamation of the Islamic

> Republic in Iran has 24° 24´ Cancer rising. Ra/Ve period is

running.

> Rahu is natally afflicting H2, H6, H8 and H10. Ketu is natally

> afflicting H8, H12, H2 and H4. L6 Jupiter natally afflicts L3

Mercury

> and L10 Mars in H9. L8 Saturn natally afflicts L1 Moon in H11.

Hence,

> there are many difficult afflictions in this chart, giving

potential

> for setbacks.

> >

> > Currently, tr Ketu is aspecting natal L1 Moon in

H11.

> Tr L8 Saturn is in H1 under aspect from tr Rahu and in turn casting

a

> H3 aspect on tr Ketu. Tr Rahu has also been afflicting L2 Sun in H9.

> >

> > In March and April 2006, L6 Jupiter will be

> stationary afflicting natal Ketu. L4 Venus will be passing through

> H8. The transit affliction involving Saturn and the nodes, all

prime

> malefics in a Cancer rising chart, will be stationary and close.

So,

> clearly, there is scope for difficulty at that time, even if it is

> hard to ascertain what that will be.

> >

> > A study of the chart for the USA is needed to see

if

> there a connection there. A preliminary ammended chart for USA with

> 19° 32´ Scorpio rising, shows that Ve/Sa period is running. L4

Saturn

> is afflicted in transit by Rahu during the spring of 2006. This

> suggests the mental calm of the USA is easily disturbed at this

time,

> especially acts of manipulation or cheating. In mid to late April,

L6

> Mars will be transit conjunct natal L12 Venus in H8, while tr Venus

> will be conjunct H4. This could be a time when the USA shows hair

> trigger responses.

> >

> > However, this is not to say the two countries will

> collide at this time, only that some strain is visible. The USA may

> continue to show restraint with regard to Iran, as an attack could

> send the whole region into a conflagration. Perhaps the President

of

> Iran is aware of that and suspects the US is militarily not as

strong

> in a conventional military sense, and is hoping to unite the

Islamic

> world in a conventional confrontation.

> >

> > That said, it is an interesting and worrying

> situation, to be sure.

> >

> > Best regards,

> >

> > C

> >

> >

> >

> > Dec. 31, 2005 19:33 | Updated Jan. 1, 2006 6:38

> > 'US planning strike against Iran'

> > By JPOST.COM STAFF

> >

> > The United States government reportedly began

> coordinating with NATO its plans for a possible military attack

> against Iran.

> > The German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel collected

> various reports from the German media indicating that the North

> Atlantic Treaty Organization are examining the prospects of such a

> strike.

> > According to the report, CIA Director Porter Goss,

in

> his last visit to Turkey on December 12, requested Prime Minister

> Recep Tayyip Erdogan to provide military bases to the United States

> in 2006 from where they would be able to launch an assault.

> > The German news agency DDP also noted that

countries

> neighboring Iran, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, and Pakistan

> were also updated regarding the supposed plan. American sources

sent

> to those countries apparently mentioned an aerial attack as a

> possibility, but did not provide a time frame for the operation.

> > Although Der Spiegel could not say that these plans

> were concrete, they did note that according to a January 2005 New

> Yorker report American forces had entered Iran in 2005 in order to

> mark possible targets for an aerial assault.

> > http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost%

> 2FJPArticle%2FShowFull & cid=1135696369601

> >

> >

> >

> >

--

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